BDP RECONCILIATION ON TRACK - FOR NOW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 GABORONE 000667

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/S HOFSTATTER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/16/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV BC
SUBJECT: BDP RECONCILIATION ON TRACK - FOR NOW

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOSEPH HUGGINS FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D


1. (C) SUMMARY: The Botswana Democratic Party's Women's
Wing chose a compromise slate of leaders at its May 5-8
national congress providing the first evidence that Vice
President Khama's efforts to unite the Party are succeeding.
This comes just ahead of the Party's national congress in
July, where Khama's reconciliatory campaign will face its
greatest test. Increasingly, BDP members see Khama as
exercising presidential authority and Mogae as a lame duck.
Not everyone in the BDP is happy with that, however,
including some of his erstwhile supporters. END SUMMARY.

BDP WOMEN'S WING MEETING YIELDS COMPROMISE . . .


2. (U) At its biannual national congress May 5-8, the BDP
Women's Wing chose a slate of leaders agreed upon by
representatives of the Party's two rival factions (now known
as the Nkate-Merafhe and Kedikilwe-Kwelagobe factions).
According to MP for Mahalapye West Botlogile Tshireletso, who
will return for a third tenure as chair of the Wing, the
women of the BDP recognized that elections are a more
democratic way of selecting leaders but could have been
fatally divisive, and therefore felt that party unity was
paramount at the time.

. . . BY A NARROW MARGIN


3. (C) Despite the explicit and fervent endorsement of Vice
President Khama, the compromise outcome of the women's
congress narrowly succeeded. Tshireletso informed PolOff on
May 12 that many delegates had arrived at the event unaware
of the details of the proposed agreement, a reflection of the
fact that its opponents would be all too happy to shoot it
down. During the congress, several representatives of the
Nkate-Merafhe faction argued against compromise, believing
that they would win an open contest. The followers of
Kedikilwe-Kwelagobe endorsed a negotiated outcome, knowing
that it would pave the way for a similar outcome of the
Party's national congress in July, thereby preserving their
hold on at least some levers of power.

BDP REUNIFICATION ON TRACK


4. (C) The result of the Women's Wing congress indicates
that Vice President Khama's efforts to broker a party-wide
reconciliation are making progress. A BDP contact told the
Ambassador that the faction leaders had agreed that current
Secretary General and MP from Molepolole South Daniel

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Kwelagobe will retain his post, as will his Deputy, Minister
of Education Jacob Nkate. Tshireletso, who is also the BDP's
Chief Whip in parliament, cautioned PolOff, however, that
this outcome is not guaranteed since the members of the
Nkate-Merafhe faction continue to lobby against it. Kefentse
Mzwinila, a leader of the BDP youth and active member of the
Kedikilwe-Kwelagobe group, told PolOff that his faction has
been burned before on compromise deals that fell through at
the last minute. He said that Kedikilwe-Kwelagobe delegates
will go to the party congress in July armed with a "plan B"
list of nominees drawn solely from their number in case the
Nkate-Merafhe faction attempts a coup.

KHAMA, NOT MOGAE, AT THE HELM


5. (C) Due in part to his role in trying to unite the Party,
BDP members appear increasingly to view Khama as the real
political ruler of Botswana and Mogae as a lame duck.
Mzwinila told PolOff that Mogae's various public denials that
factions exist within the Party have reinforced the
perception within the BDP that Mogae is out of touch with
reality. Tshireletso described Mogae as on his way out the
door. She believed that Khama had chosen the current cabinet
and planned to see Khama, not Mogae, suggesting a cabinet
reshuffle in 2006 to include some Kedikilwe-Kwelagobe
loyalists to promote party unity.

CONCERNS ABOUT PRESIDENT KHAMA


6. (C) Not everyone in the BDP is comfortable with the idea
of President Ian Khama. Minister of Education Jacob Nkate,
long considered a close ally of Khama, recently told the
Ambassador that Botswana would have in Khama a president
unfit for the job. Unlike Mogae, who is an economist, Khama
lacks the grasp of economic and development related issues
upon which a president must make important decisions, he
opined. Nkate feared that Khama would surround himself with
"idiot" yes-men. Harkening back to allegations of improper
purchases by the Botswana Defense Force from a company owned
by Tshekedi Khama, Ian Khama's brother, when the latter was
Commander of the military, Nkate worried that corruption in
high places would rise under Khama as well.


7. (C) Tshireletso, who belongs to neither faction but tends
to sympathize more with the Kedikilwe group, echoed some of
these concerns. She described some of the new faces in
cabinet as Khama's "bootlickers." (Note: During the Women's
Wing congress, Khama had basked in the adoration of some
delegates, including former MP and cabinet minister Tebelelo
Seretse who publicly proclaimed herself Khama's "bootlicker."
End Note.) Members of the BDP Central Committee from the
Nkate-Merafhe faction, she said, do not speak in Committee
meetings until Khama speaks, and then only to agree with him.

DE BEERS FUNDS POLITICAL CONSULTANT


8. (C) Perhaps reflecting some concern about the
opposition's growing share of the popular vote, De Beers has
apparently paid for a professional consultant for the BDP.
BDP Executive Secretary Batlang Serema informed PolOff that a
South African political consultant, Lawrence Schlemmer, was
in Botswana to prepare a document advising BDP on strategies
to remain in power. (Note: Schlemmer last came to Botswana
in 1997, following the opposition's best electoral
performance ever in 1994. His report recommended that then
President Masire step down, Mogae take over and appoint Khama
Vice President, all of which was implemented. End Note.)
Kefentse Mzwinila informed PolOff that associates of
Schlemmer interviewed him for several hours as one of the
major opinion shapers within the BDP. They quizzed him in
detail about his perceptions of both Mogae and Khama.
Mzwinila stated that his interlocutors had informed him that
Schlemmer had been hired by a company in South Africa with
considerable interests in Botswana's mining sector (i.e. De
Beers) to conduct the study. Tshireletso confirmed to PolOff
that a friend of the party was paying for the report on its
behalf.

COMMENT


9. (C) While it appears the BDP is starting to heal the deep
internal rifts between its rival factions, concern about the
prospect of a Khama presidency seems to be growing. These
concerns underscore the importance of continued efforts to
remind Botswana that its reputation as a democracy relatively
untainted by corruption is its greatest asset. It also
demonstrates the need to further strengthen civil society and
enhance the independence of the legislature, judiciary, and
autonomous government agencies in the face of a predominant
executive.
HUGGINS