BNF PRESIDENT HOPES FOR OPPOSITION COOPERATION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GABORONE 000554

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/S DIFFILY

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV BC
SUBJECT: BNF PRESIDENT HOPES FOR OPPOSITION COOPERATION



1. (U) Summary: In an April 1 meeting, Otsweletse Moupo,
president of Botswana's largest opposition party, the
Botswana National Front (BNF),shared with Ambassador Huggins
his commitment to cooperation with other opposition parties
in the next general election, scheduled for 2009. Moupo
noted that while support for the ruling Botswana Democratic
Party (BDP) is declining, the BDP has a number of advantages,
including an effective organizational structure, strong ties
with traditional leaders, substantial corporate sponsorship,
and popular association with public welfare programs.
Consequently, opposition parties face a formidable challenge
in unseating the current government. End Summary.

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COMMITTED TO OPPOSITION COOPERATION
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2. (U) In an April 1 meeting in Selebi-Phikwe, Otsweletse
Moupo, President of the Botswana National Front, shared with
Ambassador Huggins his commitment to cooperation between the
opposition parties in the 2009 electoral campaign. According
to Moupo, the Pact formed by the BNF, Botswana's largest
opposition party, with two smaller parties, the Botswana
Alliance Movement (BAM) and Botswana People's Party (BPP),to
contest the 2004 elections failed, due to lack of grassroots
organizational work. Had the Pact been established earlier,
the parties would have had sufficient time to build awareness
and support for this strategy, he opined. As it was,
candidates who were asked to step down to make the way for
the agreed-upon Pact candidate resisted to the point of
defecting to other parties. By starting now, the BNF could
bring the second largest opposition party, the Botswana
Congress Party (BCP),into the fold and iron out the
differences well in advance of the next election.


3. (U) Attitudinal change will be the biggest challenge in
pursuing opposition cooperation. A bitter split between the
BCP and BNF in 1998, that literally degenerated into
fisticuffs, followed by the New Democratic Front's split from
the BNF in 2003, means that trust among opposition parties is
low. Moupo recognized the need to reverse this situation,
starting by putting an end to public attacks on one another
and efforts to develop a common message. He condemned the
tendency of some in the BNF to adopt a "big brother" attitude
toward the competition that would marginalize other parties
rather than build a working relationship among them.


4. (U) While sentiment in favor of opposition cooperation
has gained momentum after the October 2004 elections, the
parties have not reached any agreement on how to implement
this strategy. Moupo dismissed the option of merging the
opposition groups into one umbrella party. Abandoning
existing organizational structures and the identity of each
party's "brand", he said, would weaken their ability to
campaign effectively. Moreover, opposition parties differ on
some policy issues. Attempting to amalgamate would increase,
rather than reduce, discord within the opposition.

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BNF VISION: "SOCIAL DEMOCRACY"
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5. (U) Moupo described the BNF's vision of Botswana as a
social democracy. Economically, this translates into
attracting foreign investment, in part through privatization,
while retaining state involvement in key areas of the
economy, such as water and energy. The BNF, he said,
advocates increasing government's accountability to the
public through amending the constitution to allow for direct
election of the president and by passing a freedom of
information act.

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UNSEATING BDP AN UPHILL BATTLE
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6. (U) Although the BDP's share of the popular vote is
declining, Moupo named several factors that enable it to
remain in power. The winner-takes-all electoral system, he
pointed out, builds under-representation of smaller parties
into the political system. Control of state-owned media,
substantial backing from the corporate world, and a strong
alliance with traditional chiefs, aid the BDP in marshalling
support. In light of the tendency to credit the BDP for
state-run social welfare programs, the BNF and other
opposition parties have identified political education of the
electorate as a key step in leveling the political playing
field.


7. (U) Internal challenges further complicate this picture
for the BNF. The party has suffered from years of financial
mismanagement and faces the loss of a plot allocated to it by
the government years ago because of the failure to develop
it. Poor leadership had rendered lines of communication
within the party chaotic. As a consequence, the BNF
struggles with maintaining discipline. Moupo and his
colleagues have begun to address this situation but have
plenty yet to accomplish

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COMMENT
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8. (U) In contrast to other leaders of the BNF, Moupo has
both the personal style and practical outlook of a successful
politician. Members of the BNF are likely to reelect him
president at its biannual party congress in July this year,
but they are as likely to elect some diehard leftist
ideologues to the party's central committee as well, who
could derail plans to work with the Botswana Congress Party.
The true test of his leadership will be in convincing his
senior party colleagues to adopt a pragmatic approach to
public policy and a realistic plan for opposition cooperation
in 2009.
HUGGINS