RULING PARTY STILL MIRED IN FACTIONAL FIGHTING

UNCLAS GABORONE 001039

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

AF/S FOR MUNCY

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV BC
SUBJECT: RULING PARTY STILL MIRED IN FACTIONAL FIGHTING

REFERENCE: (A) 04 GABORONE 1816 (B) 04 GABORONE 1873 (C)
GABORONE 667


1. (SBU) Summary: The ruling Botswana Democratic Party
(BDP) went to its bi-annual national congress internally
divided and emerged from the event equally, if not further,
mired in factional fights over personalities and positions
of influence. Vice President Khama's supposedly neutral
efforts to broker an agreement between two rival groups
within the BDP, one of which he consistently favored, failed
and left him deeply distrusted by the other camp. Daniel
Kwelagobe, from the other camp, retained his seat as
Secretary General, bringing a new lease on political life to

SIPDIS
organize his followers vis-a-vis the Nkate/Merafhe faction,
which won every other elected seat to the Central Committee.
While an outright split within the BDP seems unlikely before
the 2009 election, continued fighting is likely to depress
turnout of erstwhile BDP supporters, potentially helping the
opposition to seize some marginal parliamentary seats. End
Summary.

BDP DEEPLY DIVIDED


2. (U) The BDP went to its July 16-19 bi-annual congress
divided along factional lines. One faction, led by Minister
of Education Jacob Nkate and Minister of Foreign Affairs
Mompati Merafhe, enjoyed the semi-overt support of President
Mogae and Vice President Khama. The other faction, led by
party Secretary General Daniel Kwelagobe and MP Ponatshego
Kedikilwe, boasted a larger popular following. Personality
differences and ambitions for leadership positions, rather
than political philosophy or policy priorities, defined the
two groups. The factions had emerged publicly after Vice
President Khama defeated Kedikilwe in an election for the
Chairmanship of the party in 2003. At that congress,
Kwelagobe was the only representative of his faction elected
into the Central Committee. Following the October 2004
election, appointments to local councils and to the cabinet
demonstrated a clear preference for members of the
Nkate/Merafhe faction (Refs A and B). Perceiving a threat
to their political futures, Kedikilwe/Kwelagobe loyalists
desperately worked to mobilize sentiment against their
rivals. The ensuing attacks and counter-attacks grew so
impassioned that President Mogae declared a ban on BDP
rallies a week before the Congress in a vain bid to preserve
unity of spirit.

MOGAE: FACTIONALISM "MUST AND WILL STOP"


3. (U) In his remarks to the BDP congress, President Mogae
asserted that, based on its past performance, his party
would win the 2009 elections, provided it put an end to self-
defeating schisms. He rejected as "laughable" the challenge
posed by a potentially united opposition. Although he
denied that party divisions were deep, he attributed the
BDP's shrinking popular support to them and the struggles
for leadership positions on which they are based. President
Mogae declared that all campaigning for party offices must
be "personal and discreet" and not make use of public media,
thereby perpetuating internal rifts. He threatened with
disciplinary action party members who violated these
instructions or otherwise contributed to infighting.

KHAMA ALLIED WITH NKATE/MERAFHE FACTION


4. (U) Vice President Khama spent much of the past several
months trying to broker a compromise within the BDP. A
congress of the BDP Women's Wing in May endorsed the notion
by a narrow margin, suggesting that a possibility for an
agreement between the two groups remained (Ref C). As the
national congress approached, however, reports frequently
surfaced that these talks had broken down. Finally, Khama
admitted that his efforts had failed.


5. (U) Throughout the process of compromise talks, however,
Khama was suspected of favoring the Nkate/Merafhe faction.
The history of this group, having coalesced around Khama's
candidacy for the party chairmanship in 2003, gave rise to
such suspicions. His failure to reprimand Nkate/Merafhe
followers who continuously said in the media that the
compromise was a non-starter fed this perception. Khama's
criticism of the Kedikilwe/Kwelagobe faction for attacks on
its rivals, but silence over similar statements of the other
faction members, appeared to set his seal on the
Nkate/Merafhe group.


6. (SBU) BDP members reported to our Political Assistant
that during voting for party offices at the congress, Khama
acted as a whip, text-messaging leaders of the Nkate/Merafhe

faction to ensure that their followers voted for the right
person. He is also said to have discouraged Minister for
Presidential Affairs and Public Administration Phandu
Skelemani, who sympathizes with Nkate/Merafhe faction, from
standing as an additional Central Committee member, fearing
that his candidacy would split the vote and give the
Kedikilwe/Kwelagobe faction another seat.

KWELAGOBE SURVIVES, NKATE/MERAFHE DOMINATES


7. (U) Ironically, the outcome of the election for party
offices matched one of the compromise scenarios proposed by
Khama - Kwelagobe retained the seat of Secretary General as
the lone representative of his faction elected to the
Central Committee. The fact that this resulted from a hard
fought contest - delegates told Political Assistant that
they had lobbied and strategized all night on the eve of
balloting - means that the trust and good will needed to
heal the rift is more lacking than ever before. Controlling
the majority of powerfully positions in the party, the
Nkate/Merafhe faction likely will have little interest in a
compromise. Having fought for and won the Secretary
General's seat, Kedikilwe/Kwelagobe loyalists have renewed
self-confidence and another two years at the helm of party
operations to mobilize their supporters.


8. (U) In a move seen by many as Mogae's initiative to end
rivalry between the factions within the BDP, he named two
members of the Kedikilwe/Kwelagobe faction as additional
members to the party's Central Committee. Three
representatives of the Nkate/Merafhe camp completed the five
nominated seats. The appointment of former BDP Chairman
Ponatshego Kedikilwe and former Deputy Treasurer Paul Paledi
departed from the 2003 experience when, after the Ghanzi
congress, Mogae drew additional members only from the
Nkate/Merafhe faction that had rallied around Vice President
Khama. This gesture alone will not reconcile the rivals,
however. Kedikilwe/Kwelagobe loyalists have made it clear
that they hope for a cabinet shuffle that will usher more of
their allies into ministerial positions. So far, such a
concession by the President seems unlikely.

KHAMA A DIVISIVE FIGURE


9. (SBU) The Kedikilwe/Kwelagobe camp now thoroughly
distrusts the Vice President but cannot acknowledge this
fact publicly. In a private conversation with Political
Assistant, former Executive Secretary of BDP and Member of
Parliament Botsalo Ntuane said that as BDP Chairman, Vice
President Khama is failing to manage the party well. He
said Khama believes in "exclusive" policies, meaning a less
than consultative approach to governance, which, he said,
the Kedikilwe/Kwelagobe faction will resist. In another
private conversation, when asked who Khama's advisers were,
MP Ponatshego Kedikilwe observed that Khama was not one to
accept advice readily. Although he was reluctant to talk
about Khama, Kedikilwe said he "fears for the future." Not
surprisingly, these comments echo remarks from other BDP
members associated with the Kedikilwe/Kwelagobe faction,
such as former president of the BDP youth wing Gomolemo
Motswaledi, that Khama is regarded as authoritarian and
intolerant of views that differ with his own.
Significantly, however, such fears have been articulated
even by some of the Vice President's allies (Ref C).

COMMENT


10. (SBU) President Mogae's confident rhetoric to the
contrary, Botswana's ruling party has emerged from its
biannual congress just as -- if not more -- divided than it
was before. These divisions are unlikely to result in a
formal splintering of the party. Although one camp deeply
distrusts the Vice President, such misgivings are evident in
the other faction as well. No member of the BDP will
articulate these facts due to the popular reverence for
Khama as a chief, not just of the Bamangwato but of the
entire nation. Furthermore, the prospects of winning
positions of influence as a member of a new party or
opposition party remain quite slim. Until that scenario
changes, the prospects for an outright split in the BDP are
small. In a more likely scenario, bickering within the
party will dismay its former supporters, reducing turn out
of BDP adherents on election day 2009, which could enable
the opposition to seize several marginal seats in
parliament.

HUGGINS


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