Lafontaine - a Man to Watch in Home State of

UNCLAS FRANKFURT 006748 SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV GM SUBJECT: Lafontaine - a Man to Watch in Home State of Saarland Sensitive but unclassified; not for Internet distribution REF: A) Berlin 3011, B) Berlin 2988 and Previous, C) Leipzig 30 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Polls suggest that Germany's new Left Party (Linkspartei) could post a breakthrough performance in Saarland -- the home of party Co-Chairman (and former Minister-President) Oskar Lafontaine -- further compounding the SPD's decline in a former stronghold. By splitting the Social-Democratic/SPD vote, Left Party candidates including Lafontaine (who is running in hometown Saarbruecken) could throw one or more seats to Christian Democrats (CDU). Having lost the 2004 state elections, a poor showing on September 18 could put SPD state chairman Heiko Maas' position in jeopardy. State Finance Minister Peter Jacoby (CDU) appears the favorite to succeed Saarland Minister- President Peter Mueller (CDU) should Mueller take a cabinet position in Berlin. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) Founded in July, the Linkspartei/Left Party (reftels) combines elements of the Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS -- successor to the east German communist party) and the much smaller WASG (Election Alternative for Work and Social Justice) based in western Germany. With the alliance, the party has gained a foothold in western Germany and appeals to disenchanted and protest voters (including some who traditionally favor conservatives). ¶3. (SBU) Polls and party insiders in Saarland predict the Linkspartei will receive over 10% of the state vote (earlier polls put the party as high as 20 percent),posing a threat to SPD candidates who won all four Saar Bundestag electoral districts in 2002. SPD party manager Stephan Schweizer told us the SPD was unlikely to match its 2002 showing in the state. Saarbruecken, usually a safe SPD seat, is in play this year since Oskar Lafontaine is running against SPD incumbent Elke Ferner. Although Consulate contacts believe that Lafontaine is unlikely to win the seat outright, he is likely to split the left vote and throw the seat to the CDU. Schweizer notes that SPD candidates avoid attacking Lafontaine directly because of his continuing hometown popularity and because many SPD members sympathize ideologically with their former party chairman. SPD Chairman Rejects Coalition, Future Uncertain -------------- --- ¶4. (SBU) SPD State Chairman Heiko Maas, who has ruled out a coalition with the Linkspartei in media statements, could lose his job if the SPD showing in Saarland (a former stronghold) falls significantly below the national average. On the other hand, Maas remains personally popular and Saarland insiders tell us he remains a strong potential challenger to any successor of CDU Minister-President Peter Mueller, should Mueller take a position in a Merkel cabinet. (NOTE: Sources in Saarland speculate that state Finance Minister Peter Jacoby is the strong favorite to succeed Mueller at this point. END NOTE). Grassroots Success -------------- ¶5. (SBU) SPD representatives are concerned that the Linkspartei is gaining grassroots support within labor and civil society. Schweizer pointed out that at companies like Ford (which has a large facility in Saarlouis) the Linkspartei recently gained works council majorities. The Linkspartei has also done well in recruiting disenchanted SPD members in Saarland. Schweizer and others have conjectured that the Linkspartei might also poll well in areas (such as Voelklingen) where the far-right National Democratic Party (NPD) has had success. (NOTE: The NPD received 4% of the vote in 2004 Saarland state elections. END NOTE). The SPD still enjoys the largest membership of any party in Saarland and (according to Schweizer) has reportedly stopped the erosion of its membership base there. COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (SBU) In sum, the enduring popularity of Oskar Lafontaine in Saarland may well give the Left Party its best showing in western Germany, hurting SPD candidates. Although the newly formed party may not win a direct seat, a strong showing in western Germany as a whole would boost the party in its neck- and-neck race with the Greens and the FDP -- and potentially give Lafontaine added clout within a new Bundestag caucus. END COMMENT. BODDE