IIR 6 947 0006 06/NATIONAL GUARD DEPLOYMENT LIMITATION (U)

C O N F I D E N T I A L DUSHANBE 001642 SIPDIS NOFORN E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/7/2015 TAGS: MCAP TI SUBJECT: IIR 6 947 0006 06/NATIONAL GUARD DEPLOYMENT LIMITATION (U) CLASSIFIED BY: Jonathan Edwards, DATT, USDAO Dushanbe, DIA. REASON: 1.4 (a),(b) CONFIDENTIAL NO FOREIGN SIPDIS SERIAL: (U) IIR 6 947 0006 06. COUNTRIES: (U) TAJIKISTAN (TI),RUSSIA (RU). IPSP: (U) IFC2500, IFC1913, IFC2510 SUBJECT: IIR 6 947 0006 06/NATIONAL GUARD DEPLOYMENT LIMITATION (U) WARNING: (U) THIS IS AN INFORMATION REPORT, NOT FINALLY EVALUATED INTELLIGENCE. REPORT CLASSIFIED CONFIDENTIAL NO FOREIGN -------------- -------------- DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE -------------- -------------- DOI: (U) 20051006 REQS: (U) UTCX206000504, DHCD111044, DHCD045058 SOURCE: (C) //6 947 0023 05// HOST NATION FIELD GRADE MILITARY OFFICER WITH DIRECT AND INDIRECT ACCESS TO THE INFORMATION. USDAO HAS AN ESTABLISHED RELATIONSHIP WITH SOURCE. CONTEXT STATEMENT - RO AND SOURCE MEET ON A REGULAR LIAISON BASIS AS A RESULT OF RO'S AND SOURCE'S OFFICIAL DUTIES. SOURCE APPEARS TO BE A STRONG SUPPORTER OF INCREASED MILITARY RELATIONS BETWEEN UNITED STATES AND TAJIKISTAN. SOURCE IS AWARE THAT INFORMATION WILL REACH U.S. INTELLIGENCE CHANNELS AND COMMENTS MAY BE MEANT TO INFLUENCE AS MUCH AS TO INFORM. SUMMARY: (C//REL TO USA, GBR AND AUS) THE NATIONAL GUARD IS NOT CAPABLE OF DEPLOYING TO AREAS IN SOUTHEASTERN TAJIKISTAN. THE NATIONAL GUARD ACKNOWLEDGES THERE IS A PERSISTENT THREAT IN THE REGION. TEXT: 1. (C//REL TO USA, GBR AND AUS) ON 6 OCTOBER 2005 RO MET WITH SOURCE. RO ASKED SOURCE IF THE NATIONAL GUARD HAD ANY PLANS OF CREATING A PRESENCE IN THE GORNO-BADAKHSHAN REGION (GBAO),GIVEN THE REGION'S PROXIMITY TO AFGHANISTAN, LIMITED GOVERNMENT CONTROL IN THE PAST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREMIST PRESENCE. RO NOTED THAT THE MINISTRY OF DEFENSE AND BORDER GUARDS ARE PRESENT IN KHOROG, BUT RO WAS UNSURE OF TAJIKISTAN'S PRESENT COUNTER-TERRORISM CAPABILITY THERE. SOURCE RESPONDED THAT THE NATIONAL GUARD COULD NOT AFFORD TO DEPLOY UNITS SO FAR FROM DUSHANBE. SOURCE SAID THAT HE WAS AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL THREAT IN THE REGION, BUT HE HIMSELF HAD NEVER BEEN THERE. ¶2. (C//REL TO USA, GBR AND AUS) SOURCE SAID THAT THE NATIONAL GUARD CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ITS COUNTER-TERRORISM CAPABILITY AND WAS AT THIS TIME THE GOVERNMENT'S SECOND RESPONSE TO TERRORIST THREATS, AFTER THE MINISTRY OF SECURITY. COMMENTS: 1. (C//REL TO USA, GBR AND AUS) FIELD COMMENT: THE NATIONAL GUARD ACKNOWLEDGING IT LACKS THE CAPABILITY TO DEPLOY TO THE GBAO REGION WAS A SURPRISE TO RO. SOURCE HAD PREVIOUSLY TOLD RO THAT THE NATIONAL GUARD PLANNED TO BASE A BATTALION SOUTHEAST OF DUSHANBE. DURING RO'S RECENT TRIP TO GBAO, RO DID NOT SEE ANY MILITARY PRESENCE DEDICATED OR TRAINED IN DETERING EXTREMIST/TERRORIST THREATS IN THE REGION. PREVIOUS POST REPORTING INDICATES THEIR APPEARS TO BE GOVERNMENT ACKNOWLEDGEMENT THAT AN EXTREMIST PRESENCE EXISTS IN THE REGION, YET AT THIS TIME NEITHER THE MINISTRY OF DEFENSE OR THE NATIONAL GUARD APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING A CAPABILITY TO CONFRONT POTENTIAL THREATS. IN ADDITION, THE TAJIKS PERSISTENT PROBLEMS WITH MAINTAINING AND OPERATING ITS ROTARY WING FLEET, MAKES IT UNLIKELY THE TAJIKS RETAIN A SUFFICIENT CAPABILITY TO RAPIDLY DEPLOY UNITS FROM DUSHANBE TO THE GBAO REGION. ¶3. (U) SOURCES ARE AVAILABLE FOR FURTHER CONTACT. ¶4. (U) DIRECT ANY QUESTIONS CONCERNING THIS IIR TO DIA/DHO-2 AT STU III (202) 231-7299, OR DSN 428-7299. COLL: (U) AB. INSTR: (U) U.S. NO. PREP: (U) 6-04708. ENCL: (U) NONE. ACQ: (U) DUSHANBE, TAJIKISTAN (20051006) DISSEM: (U) FIELD: EMBASSY AT DUSHANBE. WARNING: (U) REPORT CLASSIFIED CONFIDENTIAL NO FOREIGN DRVD FM: DHS HUMINT SCG OCT 04 DECL ON: 20151006 HOAGLAND NNNN