UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 DUBLIN 001528

SIPDIS

EPA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL EI EPA
SUBJECT: IRELAND UNLIKELY TO MEET KYOTO TARGET BUT
CONTINUES TO PURSUE ENVIRONMENTAL REFORMS



1. Summary: Ireland is unlikely to meet its Kyoto Protocol
emission-reduction target, according to a GOI official and
the European Environment Agency (EEA) but continues to pursue
international and domestic policies in an attempt to narrow
the gap to their targets. Recent figures show that Ireland
is 12 percentage points above its Protocol target and project
this gap to grow to 13.5 points within the next five years.
Among EU-15 states Ireland is second highest in per capita
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and third highest per GDP.
While meeting the Protocol target is not expected, Ireland is
planning to participate actively in the EU Emissions Trading
Scheme, the Protocol's Joint Implementation (JI) and Clean
Development Mechanism (CDM) programs, as well as
implementation of domestic policies outlined in the National
Climate Change Strategy (NCCS). In recent years Ireland's
economy and population have grown significantly, posing a
challenge to the country's realistic ability to meet its
Protocol targets. End Summary.

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GHG EMISSIONS: IRELAND SHOWS IMPROVEMENT
BUT REMAINS AMONG WORST IN EU
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2. Ireland is unlikely to meet its Kyoto Protocol
emission-reduction target, Emboffs were told on December 5 by
Frank Maughan, Assistant Principal Officer in the Air/Climate
Section of the Department of the Environment, Heritage and
Local Government. Under the Protocol, said Maughan, Ireland
agreed to reduce emissions to 13 percent over 1990 levels by
the end of the first commitment period of 2008-2012. This
would involve limiting the annual production of carbon
dioxide (CO2) to 60.4 million tonnes (MtCO2) by 2012. In
2001, Ireland's emission levels reached 31 percent above 1990
levels, and in 2003 these levels decreased to 25 percent over
the 1990 figure. According to European Environment Agency
(EEA), Ireland is nevertheless one of five European Union
(EU) countries most likely not to meet its Kyoto Protocol
target even with existing emission-reduction mechanisms in
place. Maughan stressed, however, that Ireland remains
committed to narrowing the gap between their Kyoto burden
share and actual emission levels by the first commitment
period (2008-2012) through participation in the EU Emissions

Trading Scheme (ETS) and implementation of Ireland's National
Climate Change Strategy (NCCS).


3. Maughan referred Emboffs to another EEA report released
December 2005, which stated that Ireland, per capita,
produced 18 tonnes of green house gas (GHG) emissions in
2003, compared to 16 tonnes in 1990. The 2003 figure is one
of the highest among all EU states, second to Luxembourg at
24 tonnes per capita. In terms of GHG emissions per GDP for
1990-2003, however, Ireland went from producing nearly 1,500
tonnes per million euro in 1990 to 716 in 2003, one of the
largest reductions among EU-15 states. Maughan told Emboffs
that this reduction was due to closures of the Cork Steel
Plant and the Irish Fertilizer Industry in 2002, cleaner
generation of electricity, and reduction in number of
livestock. Despite this significant decrease in GHG per GDP,
Ireland, as of 2003, remains third worse among EU-15 states
in this area, trailing Portugal at 805 tonnes per million
euro and Greece at 1,145.

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PROJECTIONS
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4. Irish projections show that by 2010 Ireland will be
producing 71.3 MtCO2 per year, 33.3 percent over 1990 levels.
According Maughan and the November EEA report, Ireland
intends to purchase, through the EU Emissions Trading Scheme
(ETS), 3.7 MtCO2 in emission allowances per year, effectively
narrowing the projected gap between actual and agreed upon
limits to 7.2 MtCO2.

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AGRICULTURE AND TRANSPORTATION: IRELAND'S BIGGEST OFFENDERS
-------------- --------------


5. Maughan stated that Ireland's agriculture and
transportation sectors produce the majority of GHG emissions.
Agriculture, the biggest offender, is projected to decrease
emissions by 10 percent in 2010, relative to 1990 levels.
This means the sector will go from producing 18.65 MtCO2 per
year to 16.7 MtCO2. Maughan suggested that this decrease
will be achieved by reduction in number of cattle livestock,
cessation of coal firing and use of three new power
generation stations by Ireland's main energy producer,
Electricity Supply Board (ESB). Maughan expressed concern,
however, over a potential over-reliance on oil and gas when
used in place of coal-burning for heating and electricity.


6. The transportation sector produces 17-18 percent of
Ireland's total emissions, up 100 percent from 1990. Maughan
pointed out that although Ireland's transportation emissions
are below the European average, the number of journeys per
person is unusually high. Relative to 1990 levels (5.143
MtCO2), transportation emissions are projected to increase
157 percent (13.2 MtCO2) by 2010. Maughan said that
transportation for the industrial sector presents a challenge
to lowering this sectors emission levels because the country
is not big enough to sustain a major rail system; instead
industrial products are transported by road vehicles. Also,
Ireland's relatively recent economic prosperity has spurred a
surge in private automobile purchases. Although a carbon tax
was proposed in Ireland, Maughan cited the GOI's Finance
Ministry's position that such a tax is not a policy option,
given the rising cost of energy.

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KYOTO GAP NARROWED BY EMISSION
TRADING AND DOMESTIC POLICY
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7. Maughan said that Ireland hoped to approach its Kyoto
targets through the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). There
is a total of nearly 11,400 participating fossil fuel
generating facilities and large industrial energy users among
EU states, 105 of which are from Ireland. Maughan commented
on Ireland's limited participation in the EU ETS, noting that
since the country's growth is not reliant on big industries,
some sectors included in the EU ETS are not present in
Ireland. Ireland is allocated 22.32 million tonnes of GHG
emissions for each of the three ETS pilot years (2005-2007)
and, according to Maughan, each year the GOI plans to
purchase an additional 3.7 million tonnes of allowances. He
predicted that allowances will cost between euro 15 and 30
per tonne. This would cost the GOI anywhere from euro 334.8
million to 669.6 million per year.


8. The National Climate Change Strategy (NCCS), published by
the GOI Department of the Environment, Heritage and Local
Government in October 2000, provides another mechanism for
Ireland to meet its Kyoto Protocol commitments. The strategy
anticipates coordinated action with the EU and international
partners largely through buying and selling of emission
allowances in the international market. Domestically the
strategy involves an Interdepartmental Climate Change Team
(IDCCT), which acts as a steering committee for the first and
second phases of the Kyoto Protocol commitments by bringing
together members from various government departments to
ensure implementation of domestic environmental policies.


9. Environmental policy in Ireland includes the Air Quality
Standards Regulation 2002, the Rural Transport Initiative
2002, Large Combustion Plants Regulations 2003 and the
National Ban on Bituminous Coal and Petcoke (2002). Policies
target the energy, transportation, agriculture, industry,
waste, residential and forestry sectors. Maughan told
Emboffs that legislation often provides financial incentives
and disincentives for polluting activities, such as the
Vehicle Registration Tax (VRT) requiring all car owners to
pay a tax of 20 to 25 percent of the total vehicle cost, with
a 50 percent tax relief for owners of hybrids. In addition
to pay incentives, other policies promote informed
consumption. For example, regulations are in place requiring
the Society of Irish Motor Industry (SIMI) to publish an
annual guide, distributed to all dealerships and new car
buyers, detailing fuel efficiency and CO2 emissions of all
new vehicle makes and models. In addition to this,
dealerships are required to display in a prominent place on
new cars CO2 emission and fuel economy levels.


10. The National Climate Change Strategy also promotes
greater use of sustainable energy. It mandated the
establishment of Sustainable Energy Ireland (SEI) to regulate
and promote renewable energy initiatives, peat power stations
and fuel switching. The GOI has invested euro 3 billion in
public transportation and other infrastructure improvements
to encourage a shift of traffic from roads to rail and ship.

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COMMENT
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11. The U.S. and its decision to abstain from the Kyoto
Protocol commitments have long been subject to critical media
reporting, but especially during the November-December 2005
Montreal Conference. However, as the first commitment
period, 2008-2012, quickly approaches, Irish reporters and
politicians are awakening to the fact that Ireland will not
be able to meet its own Kyoto commitments. For example, a
December 14 op-ed in the Irish Independent daily newspaper
compared the United States and Ireland as honest and
dishonest polluters, respectively, in the context of the
Montreal Conference. We expect that this contradiction will
begin to temper the critical tone of popular opinion toward
the USG in the coming years.
KENNY