DJIBOUTI'S FOREIGN MINISTER ON PLANS FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DJIBOUTI 000615 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF A/S CONSTANCE NEWMAN AND AF DAS DON YAMAMOTO NSC FOR AFRICA DIRECTOR DR. CINDY COURVILLE STATE ALSO PASS USAID E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2015 TAGS: PREL PGOV SCUL EAID PHUM DJ SUBJECT: DJIBOUTI'S FOREIGN MINISTER ON PLANS FOR DEMOCRATIC REFORM REF: A. DJIBOUTI 565 ¶B. DJIBOUTI 282 Classified By: AMBASSADOR MARGUERITA D. RAGSDALE. REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) Summary: Djibouti's Foreign Minister Mahmoud Ali Yousuf sees his government moving forward decisively to improve democratization and governance. Regional elections, to be held late in 2005, will be the first priority action and will be organized around a new system of proportional representation. If all goes well, the same system will be implemented in 2008 parliamentary elections. These two actions will complement ongoing reform efforts at the judicial, economic, and social levels. An enhanced role for women in decisionmaking continues as a key cornerstone. As for the opposition, it will likely decline the government's extended hand for dialogue as it lacks both a political plan for Djibouti's future and, more importantly, a constituency, according to the Minister. End Summary. ¶2. (C) During her 6/21 meeting on U.N. reform and other matters with Minister of Foreign Affairs Mahmoud Ali Yousuf (reported septels),Ambassador asked the Minister for an update on Djibouti's plans for improved democratization and governance. She noted that President Guelleh's re-election for a second mandate had set the stage for further progress in the areas she had previously discussed with the Minister. (see ref B). In addition, the President had released a well-publicized "feuille de route" (roadmap) for concrete ministerial action in his second term. (see ref A) ¶3. (C) Mahmoud responded that Djibouti was moving forward on democratization and good governance. The priority by December 2005 will be to organize regional elections under a new representative system. During last local elections (parliamentary, 2003),representation was based on majority party lists. For regional elections, Djibouti will shift to proportional representation. The Minister said this means representatives in the regional councils may now come from opposition parties. If, for example, an opposition party receives 20 percent of votes in a region, that party will receive 20 percent of seats for that region. ¶4. (C) Regional elections will be a test for Djibouti's second priority, the Minister continued, which will be February 2008 parliamentary elections. If results of the 2005 regional elections are successful, Djibouti will apply the same system to parliamentary representation and seek, at the same time, greater decentralization. ¶5. (C) Mahmoud described these phases as in line with principles of good governance. In addition, reforms Djibouti is already undertaking at the judicial, economic, and social levels will continue. He emphasized in particular Djibouti's efforts to bring more women into government at the decisionmaking level evidenced by the recent appointment of the first woman to the critical position of Minister of Cooperation in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. ¶6. (C) As for the "feuille de route" outlined by President Guelleh, the Minister said the President genuinely intends to move forward in every section of this general document. Guelleh will lead the roadmap, monitor every segment, and see it completed in this, his last mandate. ¶7. (C) On the opposition, Mahmoud commented that it will need to review and re-think its role in Djibouti's political process. The current government wants to see a political process that is peaceful and profitable to all. It does not want instability. He asked, rhetorically, whether the opposition was genuinely capable of change and stated emphatically that they were not. He told Ambassador that he believed the opposition would refuse to participate in the government's most recent call for dialogue, conveyed through a letter from the Minister of Interior to all opposition parties. According to Mahmoud, the opposition in Djibouti is not prepared to participate because it has no political plan and because it has no constituency. He said the government wishes to engage the opposition on ways to move Djibouti forward on next elections, for example. Mahmoud lamented that as the old opposition leaders pass away, the new leaders, themselves aged, appear increasingly unwilling to accept new ideas and unwilling to step aside to permit the ideas of those younger to flourish. ¶8. (C) Comment: The political will may be present in Djibouti but the wheels of action turn slowly in this economically-challenged nation. In addition, Djibouti's assistance needs may ultimately overshadow reform efforts. Already, Ambassador has been advised that the Minister of Interior is seeking an early meeting to request U.S. targeted assistance for implementation of upcoming regional elections and sustentation of regional councils. As for Djibouti's opposition, Mahmoud has a point. Septel will discuss Ambassador's recent meeting with opposition figures, who have little hint of their responsibilities (not just rights) in a true democracy. End comment. RAGSDALE