JMB: WINDED OR DOWN FOR THE COUNT?

C O N F I D E N T I A L DHAKA 006303 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2010 TAGS: PTER KISL ASEC PGOV BG BG SUBJECT: JMB: WINDED OR DOWN FOR THE COUNT? Classified By: A/DCM D.C. McCullough, reasons para 1.4 d. ¶1. (C) December 22 marks the second week since the last attack, in Netrakona, which at that point looked like the most ruthless in an escalating and quickening campaign of violence waged by Jamaatul Mujahidin Bangladesh (JMB). The focus has shifted from attacks to apparent breakthroughs in the anti-JMB investigation, including the following highlights: -- November 20: Abdul Awal becomes the first senior JMB leader to be arrested. He is a son-in-law of JMB supreme commander Abdur Rahman, the JMB commander for Rajshahi, and a member of the JMB executive committee. Awal was reportedly responsible for JMB finances and weapons procurement. -- December 4: The alleged mastermind of the Gazipur suicide attacks, Wahidur Rahman Jewel, is arrested. According to police, Jewel was the bomb maker and the person who selected the suicide attackers. -- December 7: Mohiuddin Faruqi, a Khulna regional commander, is arrested. -- December 13: Ataur Rahman Sunny, a JMB Executive Committee member and the Dhaka divisional commander, is arrested. Sunny ranks just after his brother, Abdur Rahman, in the JMB leadership hierarchy. -- December 13: JMB Chittagong divisional commander Mohammad Aman Ullah is arrested. -- December 17: JMB Rasjshahi commander Abu Isa, alias Emmanuel, is arrested. ¶2. (C) Since the Gazipur attacks, there have been near daily recoveries of large amounts of explosives and crude, locally-made weapons. A timeline of major JMB actions indicates the investigation didn't start to make significant progress until after investigators were able to interrogate several suicide bombers who initially survived their attacks. While two JMB Executive Committee members have been arrested, five remain at large: Abdur Rahman, Bangla Bhai, Salahuddin (the Sylhet divisional commander),Hafez Mahmud (the Khulna divisional commander),and Shaikh Tariq (the Rangpur/Dinajpur divisional commander). ¶3. (C) Comment: It is unclear whether these recent successes have put JMB on the ropes or have simply driven a still viable organization further underground. Great doubts about BDG motives and commitment to pursuing the JMB investigation remain, especially if the heat is perceived to be off. Ultimately, there are only two points that matter: whether the violence resumes, and whether the BDG catches the other five Executive Committee members. CHAMMAS