SUMMARY: INDEPENDENT ENGLISH LANGUAGE NEWSPAPER "DAILY STAR" SAYS THE MOST VIABLE OPTION FOR THE WEST IN REGARD TO THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM IS TO RESUME CONSTRUCTIVE DIALOG WITH IRAN INSTEAD OF IMPOSING ECONOMIC SANCTIONS OR USING FORCE.
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IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM
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"NUCLEAR SHOWDOWN WITH IRAN" AN OP-ED PAGE ARTICLE IN INDEPENDENT ENGLISH LANGUAGE NEWSPAPER "DAILY STAR" OPINES (8/22): SYED MUAZZEM ALI WHAT ARE THE OPTIONS BEFORE THE EU TROIKA TO BREAK THE CURRENT DEADLOCK? EU WOULD LIKE TO PUT INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE ON IRAN TO BRING IT BACK FROM THE CURRENT ENRICHMENT PROGRAM. UNITED STATES, HOWEVER, IS ADVOCATING FOR TOUGHER ACTION AGAINST IRAN INCLUDING IMPOSITION OF ECONOMIC SANCTIONS BY THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL. PRESIDENT BUSH...EVEN HINTED AT THE POSSIBILITY OF USE OF FORCE AGAINST IRAN. IF THE WESTERN COUNTRIES DECIDE TO TAKE THE ISSUE TO THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL FOR IMPOSITION OF COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC SANCTIONS AGAINST IRAN, IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER THEY CAN MASTER SUPPORT OF OTHER COUNCIL MEMBERS, PARTICULARLY THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES. EVEN IF THEY DO, CHINA AND RUSSIA, WHO HAVE ESTABLISHED LONG TERM TRADE AND ECONOMIC TIES WITH TEHRAN, COULD DECIDE TO VETO IN ORDER TO PROTECT THEIR NATIONAL INTERESTS. UN SECRETARY GENERAL KOFI ANNAN RECENTLY EXPRESSED HIS
SIPDIS APPREHENSION THAT THIS COULD IN TURN PARALYZE THE SECURITY COUNCIL. FURTHERMORE, UNITED STATES HAD IMPOSED ITS OWN ECONOMIC SANCTIONS AGAINST IRAN MORE THAN TEN YEARS AGO. SO ANY FRESH UN SANCTION WOULD HAVE NO ADDITIONAL IMPACT ON THEM. HOWEVER, EU COUNTRIES ARE IRAN'S NUMBER ONE TRADING PARTNER. THEY ARE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON IRAN TO MEET THEIR LONG-TERM ENERGY REQUIREMENTS AND, IRAN PROVIDES A HUGE MARKET FOR THEIR INDUSTRIALIZED GOODS. ANY UN IMPOSED SANCTION WOULD SURELY SERIOUSLY AFFECT THESE MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL TIES. WASHINGTON IS HEAVILY BOGGED DOWN IN IRAQ AND ANY FULL SCALE MILITARY ACTION BY THEM AGAINST IRAN LOOKS UNLIKELY, THOUGH A BLITZKRIEG AERIAL ATTACK LIKE THE ISRAELI ATTACK AGAINST IRAQ IN 1982 CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER, UNLIKE IRAQ, IRAN HAS SEVERAL ATOMIC CENTERS SCATTERED ALL OVER THE COUNTRY AND IT WOULD BE IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOCK ALL OF THEM DOWN THROUGH AERIAL STRIKES. EVEN IF THE US SUCCEEDS, IRAN CAN REBUILD THEM WITHIN MONTHS SINCE SHE HAS BUILT THEM WITH HER OWN TECHNOLOGY AND MANPOWER. IF ANY MILITARY ACTION IS LAUNCHED AGAINST IRAN DESPITE THESE WEIGHTY CONSIDERATIONS, IT WOULD FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE REGION AND BEYOND. GIVEN THIS COMPLEX SCENARIO, THE MOST VIABLE OPTION SEEMS TO BE RESUMPTION OF DIALOGUE WITH IRAN. FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS, THE IAEA HAS BEEN ABLE TO GET SUBSTANTIAL DEGREE OF COOPERATION FROM IRAN. THIS PROCESS HAS TO BE SUSTAINED AND EXPANDED. SINCE IRAN IS AGREEABLE TO ADDITIONAL SAFEGUARDS, THE EU SHOULD ENCOURAGE IRAN TO EXTEND FULL COOPERATION TO IAEA SO THAT THE LATTER MAY CLOSELY MONITOR THE IRANIAN URANIUM ENRICHMENT PROGRAM AND ENSURE THAT THERE IS NO DIVERSION OF ENRICHED URANIUM TOWARDS MAKING NUCLEAR WEAPONS. ONE HAS TO KEEP IN MIND THAT IF IRAN IS PUSHED TO A SITUATION WHERE IT DECIDES TO LEAVE THE NPT REGIME LIKE NORTH KOREA, THEN THERE WILL BE NO CONTROL ON ITS NUCLEAR PROGRAM. NOW THAT THE US INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES HAVE REVISED THEIR EARLIER ASSESSMENT AND POINTED OUT THAT IRAN IS AT LEAST TEN YEARS AWAY FROM MAKING THE BOMB, IT IS ALL THE MORE REASON TO PURSUE A CONSTRUCTIVE DIALOGUE WITH IRAN AND PERSUADE IRAN TO ACCEPT CLOSER SURVEILLANCE BY IAEA. TEHRAN MAY NOT AGREE TO GIVE UP ITS NUCLEAR OPTIONS BUT IT HAS INDICATED ITS WILLINGNESS TO ACCEPT GREATER SAFEGUARDS IN RETURN FOR FULL NORMALIZATION OF TIES WITH THE WEST, ESPECIALLY THE US.
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