ANOTHER LETHAL ATTACK ON THE AWAMI LEAGUE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 000360

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SA/PB AND SA/PD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/28/2015
TAGS: PTER PGOV PREL PHUM BG BGD
SUBJECT: ANOTHER LETHAL ATTACK ON THE AWAMI LEAGUE

REF: 01/27/05 ENGELKEN-MCCULLOUGH E-MAIL

Classified By: P/E Counselor D.C. McCullough, reasons para 1.5 b.


1. (C) Summary. The January 27 attack that killed former
Awami League finance minister Kibria and at least three other
party activists is the latest in a series of unsolved
assaults on opposition leaders. There are reports of
scattered AL protests, mainly in the area of the attack. It
is unclear if the AL's upcoming national strike will be more
effective or violent than prior efforts to force the BDG to
resign. See paras 8 and 9 for suggested press guidance and
points for a S-PM Zia phone call (ref). End Summary.


2. (U) On January 27, a grenade attack killed MP and former
AL finance minister Shah A.M.S. Kibria at an Awami League
(AL) rally with constituents near his hometown in the Sylhet
division of northeast Bangladesh, according to press reports,
AL officials, and local contacts. At least three other AL
activists, including Kibria's nephew, were killed, and
approximately 70 persons were wounded. A general strike is
in effect in the area of the attack. The AL has announced a
three-day nationwide strike for January 29-31.

Reaction
--------------


3. (SBU) On January 28, AL activists have stopped and are
detaining a passenger train from Sylhet. Amid rising
tensions, scores of buses and trucks have reportedly been
stopped from entering the area. There have been several
protest rallies elsewhere in Sylhet district, including one
near the municipal headquarters in Sylhet city which the
mayor, from the Awami League, is expected to address shortly.
In Dhaka, after Friday prayers, presumed AL activists set on
fire a BNP branch office in old Dhaka. As of 1700 local,
there are no reports of injuries from any of the incidents.


4. (SBU) Prime Minister Begum Khaleda Zia, President Iajuddin
Ahmed, and BNP Secretary General Mannan Bhuyian have issued
statements condemning the attack and promising to bring the
perpetrators to justice. Bhuyian, the BNP's unofficial
conciliator, characterized the attack as an "act against
humanity." (Note: Based on previous attacks, BNP leaders in
a few days will allege the AL itself carried out the attack,
perhaps noting, in this case, the well-known AL splits in
Sylhet.) From the AL side, on a private satellite television
channel, MP Tofail Ahmed has already blamed the BDG for the
attack. AL president Sheikh Hasina and the BNP's Bhuyian are
expected to hold press conferences later today. Hasina will
likely attribute the attack to BNP/Jamaat Islami members and
demand the BDG's immediate resignation.


5. (C) On January 28, British High Commissioner Anwar
Chowdhury and EC Ambassador Esko Kentrschynskyj told DCM that
last night's attack was even more serious than the August 21
attack on the AL leadership in Dhaka. Kibria, they noted,
was a senior AL leader and an outspoken critic of Islamists.
Chowdhury added he has recommended that Foreign Secretary
Straw call Zia to condemn the attack and, perhaps, say her
government's credibility is on the line. The British DCM
later called DCM to inform her that the EU chiefs of mission
had met and decided to visit the Kibria family tonight,
demarche the MFA and visit Sheikh Hasina on January 30, and
move forward on a strong press statement.

Comment
--------------


6. (C) The 73-year-old Kibria was a party elder whose
international stature and experience brought much-needed
gravitas to the AL leadership. Despite declining health, he
was effectively the AL's shadow finance minister. The August
21 attack had the reckless but conceivable political logic of
decapitating and perhaps destroying the Awami League. The
January 27 attack, however, is particularly disturbing
because it seems to represent a broader political terrorism
designed to intimidate and stifle opposition. The attack
underscores the consequences of failing to solve prior
high-profile attacks on the opposition. After the
assassination of MP Ahsanullah Master in June and the August
21 attack, the AL used strikes to spearhead pressure on the
BDG to resign on the grounds it had failed to provide
security for the country. Those efforts never gained
traction, and it is unclear if this time the AL will do any
better.


7. (C) This time, however, the potential for violence and
prolonged confrontation may be growing. AL hard-liners argue
that the AL's relative restraint in the past has failed as a
political tactic and as a deterrent to future attacks.
Moreover, the AL is floundering as an effective opposition
and seems to be able to focus and take the initiative only
after it has been victimized by high-level attacks. AL
frustration and insecurity could promote a more aggressive
approach. End Comment.

Suggested Press Guidance
--------------


8. (U) Begin draft:

We strongly condemn the January 27 attack in northeastern
Bangladesh that took the lives of former finance minister
Shah A.M.S. Kibria and at least three other Awami League
activists, and injured some 70 people. This incident is the
latest in a disturbing series of often deadly attacks on
prominent leaders of the political opposition and civil
society. Like the assault at the August 21 Awami League
rally in Dhaka, this incident is an attack on democracy
itself.

These continuing acts of political violence underscore the
critical importance of solving and preventing such crimes.
The failure to bring to justice the perpetrators of these
crimes promotes an intimidating climate of insecurity and
impunity that encourages further attacks. We urge the
Bangladesh Government in the strongest possible terms to
identify, arrest, and prosecute those persons responsible for
political terrorism.

We extend our deepest condolences to the families and friends
of those persons killed and injured in the January 27 attack.
We urge all Bangladeshis to exercise maximum restraint and,
even in these difficult circumstances, to pursue their
political objectives and their search for justice in a
peaceful and lawful manner.

Suggested Talking Points for an S-PM Zia telephone call
-------------- --------------


9. (C) Begin points:

-- One of my first calls as Secretary is to you because I
want to share with you my great concern over the January 27
attack.

-- Unfortunately, this attack is only the latest in a series
of high-profile attacks on opposition political leaders.

-- I'm concerned that the people responsible for these crimes
never get caught. In our view, the investigation of the
August 21 was not credible and has therefore encouraged more
attacks.

-- I hope the January 27 investigation will be different and
provide evidence that your government has the will to solve
such crimes.

-- I urge your government to take effective action to halt
political terrorism and to start creating now the right
climate for a credible and successful general election.

-- The January 27 attack was in an area, Sylhet, which has a
history of violence involving political and religious
targets. In May, there was the attack that seriously injured
the British High Commissioner. Many suspect Islamist
extremists are involved in these attacks. To bolster
Bangladesh's standing as a tolerant, moderate country, it is
important that your government take visible steps to control
extremism.

-- I will be calling Sheikh Hasina to condole her on the
death of her party members.
THOMAS