CRITICAL UNDP REPORT ON "HARTALS" GENERATES

UNCLAS DHAKA 001117 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV ECON BG SUBJECT: CRITICAL UNDP REPORT ON "HARTALS" GENERATES ATTENTION ¶1. SUMMARY: UNDP has released a report detailing the socio-economic costs and popular antipathy to hartals, or nationwide political protest strikes. END SUMMARY. ¶2. In "Beyond Hartals: Towards Democratic Dialogue in Bangladesh," a distinguished panel of Bangladeshi academics and journalists, backed by the local SIRIUS Marketing and Social Research Ltd, interviewed thousands of Bangladeshis, in all parts of Bangladesh, to determine the national impact and perspective on hartals. The polling sample included politicians, student leaders, average citizens, and street toughs paid to enforce the strikes. The report also reviews the historical pattern of hartals between 1947 and 2002. ¶3. Key findings include: -- 95% of respondents believe that hartals have a negative impact on the economy; -- 70% believe there are political alternatives to hartals, such as public rallies, parliamentary debate, and road marches; -- 50% believe that politicians gain financially from calling hartals; but -- 63%, believe that hartals are a legitimate democratic tool; -- Between 1991 and 2002, there were 827 hartals called by the Awami League or the Bangladesh Nationalist Party with almost equal frequency. ¶3. The report notes a growing determination by business and civil society to pursue "business as usual" during hartals. Today's hartals do not generate enough popular support to be as long or as violent as were hartals in the 1980's and before, and often now coincide with weekends to minimize actual disruption. ¶4. The economic impact of hartals, it says, is often short term for business but long term for students when class and examination schedules are disrupted. However, the cost of hartals during the 1990's was an estimated 3-4% of GDP, and it was felt by both rural and urban communities. In the formal transportation and street vending sectors, hartal earnings are 50-60% less than normal. Major losses are recorded by some factories over lost shipments and customer dissatisfaction, leading to permanent loss of business and foreign direct investment. The cost of essential items is driven up, which primarily hurts the poor. Women are the most adversely affected group, primarily due to the insecurity of hartals that makes it difficult for them to accomplish daily tasks or go to work. ¶5. The report enumerates a series of long- and short-term constructive alternatives to hartals and solutions to the underlying problems that promote them, including social mobilization that does not involve work stoppages. To address one problem often cited by political parties to justify hartals, the opposition's inability to participate effectively in Parliament and the existing electoral framework, the report suggests reforms that, if enacted, should make hartals redundant. ¶6. Comment: The report details what everyone in Bangladesh already knows: hartals are economically damaging and enormously unpopular. THOMAS THOMAS