ASSISTANT SECRETARY FRAZER'S DECEMBER 22, 2005

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAR ES SALAAM 002321 SIPDIS AF FOR DON YAMAMOTO ALSO FOR AF/E BYODER AND AF/RSA FOR JNAY LONDON FOR AFRICA WATCHER E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/22/2015 TAGS: PHUM PGOV PREL TZ SUBJECT: ASSISTANT SECRETARY FRAZER'S DECEMBER 22, 2005 CONVERSATION WITH TANZANIAN SECRETARY GENERAL OF CIVIC UNITED FRONT, SEIF SHARIF HAMAD Classified By: Classified by Assistant Secretary Jendayi Frazer for reasons 1.4 (b and d). ¶1. (U) December 22, 5:45 p.m., Dar es Salaam, Tanzania ¶2. (U) Participants: U.S. Jendayi Frazer, Assistant Secretary for African Affairs Purnell Delly, Charge d'Affaires Mary Johnson, Political Counselor and Notetaker TANZANIA Seif Sharif Hamad, Secretary General of Civic United Front (CUF) Ismail Jussa, Advisor and Campaign Manager, CUF Summary -------------- ¶3. (C) Seif Sharif Hamad, the Secretary General of the Civic United Front (CUF) and CUF presidential candidate in the Zanzibar October 30 elections, told A/S Jendayi Frazer December 22 that the mood among CUF supporters is "gloomy" and many youth CUF members may be losing all confidence in the democratic process. A/S Frazer suggested that CUF reach out to reconcile with President Karume and the CCM leadership on Zanzibar, but Hamad adamantly stated neither his CUF leadership nor members are ready to try a third reconciliation attempt between the two sides since the previous efforts (Muafaka I, Muafaka II) did not steer the CCM from trying to "rig the elections in Zanzibar." In addition, Hamad stated that human rights abuses by the Zanzibar security forces were severe both in Pemba after October 30 and Unguja after the December 14 elections. A/S Frazer strongly urged Hamad to move quickly to meet with and speak frankly to Tanzania's newly inaugurated Union President, Jakaya Kikwete, about the polarization on Zanzibar between Pemba and Unguja as well as between CUF and CCM. She stressed that the situation cannot be ignored and a way forward must be found. End summary. Election Irregularities, Human Rights Abuses -------------- ¶4. (C) Seif Hamad relayed to A/S Frazer in detail the severe election irregularities that had occurred on both October 30 and December 14 election days in Zanzibar and the human rights abuses in Pika Village of Pemba and Tumbatu Island of Unguja respectively in the wake of those elections. Hamad said that homes were looted, persons beaten and women had been sexually abused. He claimed that hundreds had fled Pika village to hide in the forest; dozens more had fled from Tumbatu Island in northern Unguja to other parts of Zanzibar from December 15 to 18, as militia forces, under the direction of Zanzibar government, looted homes and beat both men and women, saying: "Why did you vote for CUF?" ¶5. (C) Hamad said these abuses are known publicly and in the press, but no action has been taken to bring any of these militia members before a court or to be held accountable for these abuses. Unless action is taken by the Union authorities, he is convinced these abuses will continue. A/S Frazer assured Hamad that all alleged human rights abuses need to be investigated and the perpetrators held accountable. She promised to raise this concern with both President Kikwete and President Karume at the earliest possible opportunity. Polarization -------------- ¶6. (C) Hamad stated the only lasting approach to ensuring that true democracy develops in Zanzibar is to allow the people to determine their leader. CUF remains convinced that the Zanzibar Electoral Commission (ZEC) was in collusion with the ruling CCM party to ensure that Karume would become president again. Hamad and his policy advisor, Ismail Jussa, tried to convince A/S Frazer that the division between Pemba and Unguja has been "artificially created" through election rigging. They believe that if the polling process in Zanzibar had been truly free and fair on October 30, CUF would have won up to 15 seats in the House of Representatives on Unguja Island which, combined with the 18 seats on Pemba, would have given CUF 33 seats in the House of Representatives. Instead only one seat on Unguja was won by CUF. CUF Youth Losing Hope -------------- ¶7. (C) Hamad continued by explaining the difficult challenge the CUF leadership faces: there is very strong "resistance" among CUF supporters to a third Muafaka Agreement or any reconciliation efforts with CCM. If the CUF leadership starts to push in this direction, it could be regarded as "selling out." If Hamad and his core leadership do nothing, "our people will look for other ways." Ismail Jussa recounted in detail the despondent mood at a recent meeting of CUF youth members who were saying, "Why should we vote; they always steal the election anyway. Why should we even live if we have no hope that it will be any different in 2010?" ¶8. (C) A/S Frazer stated that if this is what Hamad and the CUF leadership is facing, it is imperative that Hamad meet with President Kikwete "very early" to clearly outline CUF's concerns. When Hamad hesitated, implying that President Kikwete may only follow in the footsteps of President Mkapa (words, not action),A/S Frazer said in her view Kikwete is very different. Former President Mkapa seemed insulated from international opinion, but she believes President Kikwete aspires to an international leadership role and as such, will act to resolve the issue of Zanzibar. ¶9. (C) The Assistant Secretary inquired if CUF had won enough seats in the House of Representatives for a majority. Hamad said that CUF has only 19 seats out of 60 because many of the seats are appointed. A/S Frazer encouraged Hamad to urge CUF-elected representatives to play, nevertheless, a positive and constructive role in the House of Representatives. She said that President Karume appears to be serious about social development, especially the recently launched USG initiative to eradicate malaria in Zanzibar. However, Karume is very defensive about politics, "possibly because our Ambassador did not go to his inauguration." She told Hamad that when she met with Karume, he had acknowledged a division on the isles and she told him that he needs to work hard toward reconciliation in Zanzibar. ¶10. (C) Hamad stated adamantly, &We do not trust CCM. Karume is the last person we would trust. He says the right words but he never implements them.8 Jussa outlined how CUF had worked for three years in the Joint Presidential Commission (JPC) set up as part of the Muafaka II agreement and had met many times with President Karume and CCM leaders in Zanzibar, but "they never followed through." Hamad added that CUF is convinced that CCM does not like Tanzania's multiparty system. Although CCM accepted it, maybe because of international pressure, it nevertheless wants to revert back to a one-party system. Pemba and Unguja Divide -------------- ¶11. (C) A/S Frazer then asked, &How can the two islands come together; what is the fundamental divide between the isles8? Hamad reiterated that he believes it is an artificial divide because CCM decided to "let CUF take Pemba, then worked through election rigging to take as many seats as possible in Unguja." He continued: &Hard liners within CCM want to see Pemba isolated. This dates back to the politics in Zanzibar before the revolution of 1964." Hamad said in reality there is no such divide. "Our people intermingle and intermarry; we all have relatives on both islands," he stated. Assistant Secretary Frazer noted that Karume had told her that he SIPDIS himself had relatives on Pemba. ¶12. (C) A/S Frazer then asked what the U.S. Government can do to assist in the Zanzibar situation. Hamad replied that the harassment and human rights abuses must stop and those militia members who have looted and raped should be brought before the law. Next, Karume himself needs to be held accountable and allow for fair elections to be contested. Hamad repeated: "There is no need to have a multiparty election if they only want a one-party state." Political Growth Takes Time -------------- ¶13. (C) A/S Frazer replied that in the U.S. it was very frustrating for African Americans to work within the political system "because we did not have the numbers and voters did not look at us as being capable." Until now there have only been three black Senators. She noted while more African Americans were elected to the House of Representatives, those elections were in local constiuencies. Since the Senate race is statewide, "we have learned that we have to build coalitions." ¶14. (C) Hamad replied, "But in our case, the people HAVE elected us, but we have not been given our chance." Hamad quipped that African countries seem to be moving ahead and perfecting the "art of election rigging." He stated that CUF does not believe that President Kikwete really won 80 percent of the popular vote in the Union election. He gave the example of the village of Mwanya, a CUF stronghold, where the CUF presidential candidate Lipumba only got 47 votes on December 14. A/S Frazer replied that the "myth of election rigging" is always on the increase, but "I would caution you. If you start to question the conduct of the elections on the Mainland, it would risk putting into question your own credibility. There were many eyes observing the Mainland elections and they did not see cheating." 15.(C) A/S Frazer continued, "CUF has leverage with the international community, and Kikwete may care enough about maintaining a certain stature in Africa and the world that he will listen to you regarding the problems on Zanzibar." She repeated that Kikwete, as Foreign Minister, played a role on the international scene and she would appeal to the new President to maintain that position. CUF Election Report Being Published -------------- ¶16. (C) Jussa said that CUF has finally completed their report on the October 30 Zanzibar elections and it will go to the printer next week. They will give a copy of that report to President Kikwete. CUF is also comparing their recorded results with the official ZEC results that were published on December 13. Assistant Secretary Frazer encouraged CUF to keep trying, noting that the opposition coalition in Kenya had finally defeated Moi. ¶17. (C) The Assistant Secretary asked if there were any way that CUF would be able to work with USAID,s democracy programs. Hamad replied, &We have been discussing with the National Democratic Institute (NDI) about possible programs. Also, we are considering approaching the embassy with some projects that might include a vocational training center for both Pemba and Stone Town. We are hoping that this will help." ¶18. (C) Assistant Secretary Frazer assured Hamad that she would follow up and talk to President Kikwete (Septel),but insisted that it is important for CUF to continue to work so that Zanzibar does not erupt into violence. ¶19. (U) Assistant Secretary Frazer has cleared this cable. DELLY