TANZANIA UNION ELECTIONS: CCM WINNING BIG ON

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DAR ES SALAAM 002282 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/RSA AND AF/E FOR B YODER ALSO DRL FOR K GILBRIDE NSC FOR C COURVILLE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV TZ SUBJECT: TANZANIA UNION ELECTIONS: CCM WINNING BIG ON MAINLAND; ZANZIBAR ISLES SPLIT REF: A. DAR ES SALAAM 02281 ¶B. DAR ES SALAAM 02243 SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. Unofficial and still incomplete results of the December 14 Union elections in Tanzania indicate Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) presidential candidate Jakaya Kikwete has delivered a crushing blow to opposition candidates and won by nearly 80 percent of the vote. Official results should be announced Sunday, but unofficial results for 225 of 234 parliamentary seats were announced at 6 p.m. (local time) Friday, December 16 with CCM taking 200 seats. The opposition has apparently won 25. ¶2. On Zanzibar, the Civic United Front (CUF) has won all 18 constituencies in Pemba and one in Stone Town on Zanzibar, but lost both of the MP seats they held on the Mainland. CUF now has 19 MP positions as compared to 17 in the last parliament. The other opposition parties have won: 4 seats for Chadema (same as 2000); one seat for Tanzanian Labor Party - TLP (a loss of 3); one seat for UDP (same as 2000). The results of the last seven MP seats should also be announced by Sunday. ¶3. Postponement of Union elections after the death in late October of Chadema's vice presidential candidate apparently took the wind from the sails of opposition parties, depleted their finances, and handed Kikwete an even larger margin of victory. The power of CCM incumbency and deep pockets of the State also worked in Kikwete's favor, as did his natural charm and legacy of Mkapa's economic reform efforts. On Zanzibar, there was no such sweep, where CCM only barely edged CUF in a hotly contested and seriously flawed October 30 elections. The bottom line, however, is that Zanzibar, like the Mainland, remains CCM, and Tanzania, after 40 years of independence remains a one-party state. Tanzania, therefore, remains bereft of a genuine forceful opposition in Parliament, and thus one of the surest checks and balances on abuse of power and corruption. In the long run, if multi-party democracy is to flourish here, Tanzania will have to develop a strong and vocal opposition. End summary. Wind out of the opposition sails -------------- ¶4. The unexpected postponement of Union elections for the presidency and for parliament left nearly all of Tanzania's opposition political parties with too much time--the campaign was extended for three more weeks starting on November 22 (reftel)--and very little resources to continue campaigning. Many election watchers had predicted prior to the postponement of elections, that this year could see gains of up to 10 to 20 seats for opposition parties. With 7 seats remaining to be announced and the opposition having clinched only 25 seats, it appears that at best, the opposition parties will be able to make only a modest gain, if any. Several constituencies have recorded some upsets. The Upsets -------------- ¶5. In the far northwest district of Bukoba, the CUF candidate Wilfred Lwakatare, who was the incumbent and had been the Opposition Leader in the previous parliament was incredulous when the presiding officer announced that the CCM candidate had won. The CCM candidate also won a surprise victory in the Hai constituency which was considered a Chadema stronghold. The previous MP in Hai was Freeman Mbowe, now the presidential candidate for the Chadema party. Voter Turnout -------------- ¶6. The December 15 Dar es Salaam press reported a "massive voter turnout" and international observers on both the Mainland and Zanzibar estimate that turnout could prove to be as high as 65 percent once all the results are in. This percentage represents a National Permanent Voters Register of 15.9 million Tanzanians, the highest number ever to be registered for a general election. Thus an 80 percent margin of victory for Foreign Minister Kikwete is a clear and strong mandate. Conduct of Elections -------------- ¶7. Observers of Dar-based diplomatic missions who worked together to observe the Union elections on both the Mainland and Zanzibar agreed at a December 16 meeting that overall the conduct of the elections by the National Electoral Commission was technically sound. While election day was marred by some instances of multiple voting and violence reported on Unguja Island of Zanzibar, most observers did not consider NEC to be responsible for these occurrences. Comment -------------- ¶8. Although the polls in most constituencies appear to be the will of the people, the fact that the opposition has made virtually no gains, and President-elect Kikwete seems to have won by the highest margin of victory in Tanzanian history, raises both opportunities for Tanzania and fears. With Kikwete firmly in control of CCM and Tanzanian politics, he could move to reform campaign finances, take meaningful anti-corruption measures and perhaps take decisive steps to help bridge the bitter divide on Zanzibar between CCM and CUF. At the same time, with no viable opposition to the CCM juggernaut in Parliament or, for that matter, anywhere on the political scene here, Tanzania loses a precious check and balance in any multi-party democracy. Wednesday's resounding defeat for Tanzania's splintered opposition parties may force them to merge and move from personality to issue-based politics. But we are not sanguine, and certainly do not expect it to happen tomorrow. What we do know, however, is that with his inauguration on December 21, Kikwete and CCM seize the reins of power for at least another five years. Whether this opens an opportunity for U.S. policy remains to be seen. DELLY