Elections Season and the Government Slowdown

C O N F I D E N T I A L DAR ES SALAAM 001252 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E AND INR/AA E.O. 12958: 6/28/15 TAGS: PGOV TZ SUBJECT: Elections Season and the Government Slowdown Classified by Pol-Econ Chief Judy Buelow for reason 1.4(b) REF: A) Dar es Salaam 1090, B)Dar es Salaam 908, C) Dar es Salaam 888, D) Dar es Salaam 732 ¶1. (U) With Benjamin Mkapa's Presidency clearly in its lame duck phase, much of the Tanzanian Government has entered a state of suspended animation; everybody is waiting for Kikwete. Four months still remain until the general elections, but hardly a shred of doubt remains that Jakaye Kikwete will be elected the next President of Tanzania. All the mystery and intrigue is now focused on the composition of Kikwete's government. When the next administration is inaugurated, probably on or about November 8, Cabinet Ministers and other top government officials, as well as many appointed Regional and District Commissioners, will all be new. ¶2. (C) The ruling CCM party will also nominate its candidates for all of the seats in the National Assembly and announce them on August 20, the opening of the official campaign season. Although the CCM will likely retain its overwhelming parliamentary majority, at least one veteran political observer believes there will be many new faces in the National Assembly as well. Dr. Rwekaza Mukandala, a professor of political science, believes that there could be up to fifty percent turnover, as the CCM maneuvers to run its best candidates in those constituencies where opposition parties have a significant presence. While the CCM is unlikely to lose its huge parliamentary majority any time soon, the advent of multiparty democracy ensured that the ruling party can no longer afford to run lackluster candidates in marginal constituencies. ¶3. (C) It should come as little surprise that officials throughout the Government are pouring far more effort into landing good positions in the next administration than working at their current jobs. Embassy Dar es Salaam and other diplomatic missions are noticing that it is ever more difficult to get a telephone call through to a government ministry; more difficult still to actually get something done in coordination with the Tanzanian Government. Jakaya Kikwete's Foreign Ministry is particularly hard hit. The Minister is constantly on the road campaigning for his inevitable presidency; many officials in his ministry are presumably maneuvering to keep their jobs or to trade them in for better ones. Several diplomats believe that the director of the Multilateral Affairs Department, Ambassador Liberata Mulamula, has been running the Ministry single- handedly. A week ago, however, Ambassador Mulamula departed for New York where Tanzania has a UN Security Council seat. Who is now in charge at the Foreign Affairs Ministry is an open question. ¶4. (U) The current sense of drift in the Tanzanian government will likely get worse before it gets better. Members of Parliament and most top government officials are currently in the capital city Dodoma for the National Assembly's annual budget session. (Presumably, many of them are lobbying for jobs as well.) On August 20, the election campaign officially opens. At that time, Parliament will be dissolved. All Ministers and their deputies will also step down, leaving the Permanent Secretaries in each Ministry to run the government as best SIPDIS they can until after inauguration day in November. ¶5. (C) Comment: These are interesting times in Tanzania, but far from normal. We don't expect to return to business as usual until sometime in November, when the new Administration's team is in place and up to speed. End comment. OWEN