Elections Season and the Government Slowdown

C O N F I D E N T I A L DAR ES SALAAM 001252

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E AND INR/AA

E.O. 12958: 6/28/15
TAGS: PGOV TZ
SUBJECT: Elections Season and the Government Slowdown

Classified by Pol-Econ Chief Judy Buelow for reason
1.4(b)

REF: A) Dar es Salaam 1090, B)Dar es Salaam 908,
C) Dar es Salaam 888, D) Dar es Salaam 732


1. (U) With Benjamin Mkapa's Presidency clearly in its lame
duck phase, much of the Tanzanian Government has entered a
state of suspended animation; everybody is waiting for
Kikwete. Four months still remain until the general
elections, but hardly a shred of doubt remains that Jakaye
Kikwete will be elected the next President of Tanzania.
All the mystery and intrigue is now focused on the
composition of Kikwete's government. When the next
administration is inaugurated, probably on or about
November 8, Cabinet Ministers and other top government
officials, as well as many appointed Regional and District
Commissioners, will all be new.


2. (C) The ruling CCM party will also nominate its
candidates for all of the seats in the National Assembly
and announce them on August 20, the opening of the official
campaign season. Although the CCM will likely retain its
overwhelming parliamentary majority, at least one veteran
political observer believes there will be many new faces in
the National Assembly as well. Dr. Rwekaza Mukandala, a
professor of political science, believes that there could
be up to fifty percent turnover, as the CCM maneuvers to
run its best candidates in those constituencies where
opposition parties have a significant presence. While the
CCM is unlikely to lose its huge parliamentary majority any
time soon, the advent of multiparty democracy ensured that
the ruling party can no longer afford to run lackluster
candidates in marginal constituencies.


3. (C) It should come as little surprise that officials
throughout the Government are pouring far more effort into
landing good positions in the next administration than
working at their current jobs. Embassy Dar es Salaam and
other diplomatic missions are noticing that it is ever more
difficult to get a telephone call through to a government
ministry; more difficult still to actually get something
done in coordination with the Tanzanian Government. Jakaya
Kikwete's Foreign Ministry is particularly hard hit. The
Minister is constantly on the road campaigning for his
inevitable presidency; many officials in his ministry are
presumably maneuvering to keep their jobs or to trade them
in for better ones. Several diplomats believe that the
director of the Multilateral Affairs Department, Ambassador
Liberata Mulamula, has been running the Ministry single-
handedly. A week ago, however, Ambassador Mulamula
departed for New York where Tanzania has a UN Security
Council seat. Who is now in charge at the Foreign Affairs
Ministry is an open question.


4. (U) The current sense of drift in the Tanzanian
government will likely get worse before it gets better.
Members of Parliament and most top government officials are
currently in the capital city Dodoma for the National
Assembly's annual budget session. (Presumably, many of
them are lobbying for jobs as well.) On August 20, the
election campaign officially opens. At that time,
Parliament will be dissolved. All Ministers and their
deputies will also step down, leaving the Permanent
Secretaries in each Ministry to run the government as best

SIPDIS
they can until after inauguration day in November.


5. (C) Comment: These are interesting times in Tanzania,
but far from normal. We don't expect to return to business
as usual until sometime in November, when the new
Administration's team is in place and up to speed. End
comment.

OWEN