SARG GENERALLY AVOIDING COMMENT ON MEHLIS REPORT;

C O N F I D E N T I A L DAMASCUS 006472 SIPDIS SIPDIS PARIS FOR ZEYA; LONDON FOR TSOU E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/12/2015 TAGS: PGOV PREL SY SUBJECT: SARG GENERALLY AVOIDING COMMENT ON MEHLIS REPORT; OTHERS OFFER MIXED ASSESSMENT Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Stephen A. Seche, per 1.4 b,d. ¶1. (C) Summary: As of midday December 13 there has been very little official SARG reaction to the release of the second Mehlis report on the assassination of former PM Rafik Hariri. One Ministry of Information official was quoted as saying that Syria had other witnesses like Hussam Hussam and Zuhier Siddik to refute the Mehlis report. He questioned whether there was sufficient evidence to justify detaining Syrian suspects. A proxy for the regime told PolChief the report was much weaker than the first report, with no evidence, "just probabilities." Another contact noted that the SARG is paralyzed, frozen between two camps, one of which argued for limited cooperation and the other for defiance. Human rights activists welcomed the report, pointed to a few positive aspects, and urged the U.S. not to support implementing any sanctions that targeted the Syrian people. End Summary. ¶2. (C) NOT MUCH OFFICIAL REACTION: Local journalists reported that Ministry of Information officials avoided offering any response December 14 to the second Mehlis report, hiding behind the dodge that the report was not yet available in Syria in Arabic, In fact, it was printed in several Lebanese newspapers widely available in Syria. One journalist speculated that the SARG wanted to wait and see how the UNSC debate was shaping up before putting out a public reaction. ¶3. (SBU) The recently appointed Director General of Syrian TV and Radio, Dr. Fayez Sayegh, was quoted in a statement to AFP saying that "Syria has new testimonies other than that of Hussam Taher Hussam and Zuhier Siddiq which it has not revealed (yet) to refute the Mehlis report." Sayegh indicated that any request to arrest Syrian suspects "should be referred to Syria which would then submit it to the Syrian Investigative Committee." Sayegh stressed that the report does not contain incriminating evidence that requires the detention of Syrian witnesses. One unidentified SARG official was quoted in Reuters saying that the government was studying the report "and no comment will be made before this is finished." Al-Hayat quoted Syrian sources as saying that legal and political experts were preparing an official response which FM Shara'a will deliver to the UNSYG. ¶4. (C) SECOND REPORT CALLED WEAKER, LESS PERSUASIVE THAN FIRST: Foreign affairs analyst Dr. Imad Shueibi, who maintains close ties to the regime and often serves as its unofficial spokesperson in the media, told Polchief the report was "biased and supportive of the enemies of Syria." Shueibi also insisted that it did not contain any new evidence. He described the report as weaker and much less persuasive than the first Mehlis report, deriding it for disseminating nothing more than "probabilities" about who killed Hariri. Shueibi also asked sarcastically how a serious criminal investigation, citing 36,000 pages of testimony and evidence, had not turned up a single indicator that a party other than Syria or its proxies could have committed the crime. In his view, that was not credible. Shueibi mentioned that he had spoken in the past few days with suspects Rustom Ghazaleh and Jama'a Jama'a and was convinced neither they nor other elements of the SARG security services had been involved in -- or were capable of undertaking -- the Hariri assassination. Shuebi questioned why the report demanded the detention of Syrian suspects. ¶5. (C) MORE INSTABILITY IN LEBANON PREDICTED: Shueibi predicted that the situation in Lebanon would continue to deteriorate, even to the point of affecting US interests, if the USG did not take steps to engage with Syria and start a dialogue on how Syria could meet U.S. demands on Iraq, Lebanon, and the Palestinian issue. ¶6. (C) REGIME PARALYZED: Sunni economist and civil society activist Dr. Riyad Abrash characterized the Syrian regime as "puzzled (by the U.S.) and paralyzed," torn between two camps, one of which wanted to cooperate to some limited degree and the other which wanted to defy UNIIIC and the UNSC. Abrash hinted that the SARG may have gone about as far as it can or is willing to go in cooperating, and already fears the evidence that has been acquired. ¶7. (C) HUMAN RIGHTS ACTIVISTS WELCOME REPORT: Among human rights activists, the assassination of Gibran Tueni clearly overshadowed the release of the second Mehlis report. Human rights activist and lawyer Haithem al-Maleh admitted to having only heard press reports summarizing issues and having not yet read the complete report. Maleh, who has been advising the family of key witness Ziad Ramadan on legal issues, was unaware that Ramadan had met with UNIIIC investigators on December 1. Maleh noted that the SARG will now be under enormous international pressure, but it is unclear whether or not the SARG will understand the situation. Maleh stressed the need to pressure the SARG, not the Syrian people: "make them (the regime) feel like they are in jail." He pleaded for the UNSC to target sanctions only against individuals implicated in the Hariri assassination. Maleh drew attention to the fact that Mehlis did not directly characterize the SARG as uncooperative but instead described it as not fully cooperating. He then noted that if the regime is smart, it will follow Mehlis's recommendation, arrest the five suspects, and make them available for worldwide interrogation. He was unsure how the Syrian public would react to the report. ¶8. (C) Fellow human rights activist and lawyer Rezan Zeituneh was also distracted by the Tueni assassination, noting to Poloff in a separate December 13 interview that she had spent most of the previous day emotionally distraught and distracted by the events in Beirut. Zeituneh commented that the report was better than she had expected, following weeks of speculation that Mehlis's investigation had stalled. She was pleased that the issue of the sixth Syrian suspect was clearly addressed as a postponement and not ignored and that Mehlis acknowledged the issue of Hussam Taher Hussam's testimony by showing evidence of witness tampering and stating that Hussam's original testimony had been corroborated by other witnesses. Zeituneh does not expect the SARG to imprison the suspects as requested by Mehlis. Zeituneh was also uncertain how the Syrian public would react to the report. ¶9. (C) COMMENT: Unlike the previous alacrity with which the SARG attacked the first Mehlis report -- within hours of its release -- the regime seems to be attempting to keep most of its powder dry this time around. Possibly warned by allies on the UNSC like Russia and Algeria, and others, that it should not be seen as attacking the report so as not to give ammunition to its foes in the anticipated UNSC debate, the regime has thus far merely committed to getting an official response to SYG Annan in the coming days. However, with no specific finding of non-cooperation and a perception here that there is little new in the second installment, the regime may feel for the moment at least that it has dodged a bullet. SECHE