UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 003179

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DEPT FOR AF/W, AF/PDPA, AF/RSA, DRL/PHD AND INR/AA
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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PINS EFIN PGOV KDEM PU
SUBJECT: GUINEA-BISSAU: GOVERNMENT'S STEPS AND MISSTEPS
WITH DEADLINES UNMET AND STRIKES PROMISED

SUMMARY
--------------

1. (SBU) The Government budget and program presentation
to the National Popular Assembly (ANP) has been postponed
until January. The Supreme Court's decision on the
constitutionality of President Vieira's naming Aristides
Gomes as Prime Minister has also been delayed. The
government workers and teachers unions promise to strike
in January if back wages are not paid and work conditions
improved. The ANP passed a "democracy tax" while the
Prime Minister discounted the importance of municipal
elections. Against this backdrop, the National Democratic
Institute (NDI) plans to begin its parliamentary training
program in January. END SUMMARY.

DEADLINES UNMET
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2. (SBU) The government budget and program were to have
been presented to the ANP by December 19 so that a vote
could be taken by the end of the parliamentary session on
December 21. Instead the Prime Minister requested that
the ANP hold an extraordinary session between Christmas
and New Year's Day, only to announce a few days later that
the documents would be presented for ANP deliberations
beginning January 9. By December 19, the Supreme Court
was to have ruled on the African Party for the
Independence of Guinea-Bissau and Cape Verde's (PAIGC's)
complaint concerning the constitutionality of the
President Vieira's naming Aristides Gomes as Prime
Minister. Vieira's lawyers, however, had not even
presented their arguments by the Court's decision
deadline. Vague promises to proceed and render a decision
"by next week" were made. In what could be perceived as a
threat to the Supreme Court, the Prime Minister stated,
"There will be an earthquake in Guinea-Bissau if the
Supreme Court cancels the presidential decree that
appointed me to be the Prime Minister."

GOVERNMENT STEPS AND MISSTEPS
--------------

3. (SBU) In addition to the

disturbing statement Gomes
made about a negative decision by the Supreme Court, he
also stated municipal elections "were not a priority" now
because the country is in an "abnormal" political-
institutional situation. He condemned the "extreme
personalization" of politics in Guinea-Bissau while
singling out former Prime Minister Carlos Domingos Gomes,
Junior (Cadogo), stating he "pretends he is the leading
politician in the country, but he is wrong."


4. (SBU) Meanwhile, the ANP President, Francisco Benante,
continues to refuse to allow replacements for the six ANP
members who joined the Cabinet (four PAIGC, one PRS, and
one PUSD) to take their seats. According to Benante and
his interpretation of parliamentary rules, the six could
not be replaced because they had been suspended by their
parties for joining the Forum de Convergencia de
Desenvolvimento (Forum for Development or FCD). The
Government wants the six seats filled because they need
the votes to assure passage of the budget and program. A
group of lawyers from the FCD is filing a suit with the
Supreme Court over the constitutionality of Benante's
position.


5. (U) The ANP managed to pass only one piece of
legislation in the month-long session that ended December

21. Instead of relying on the international community for
funding, the ANP passed a "democracy tax" meant to allow
the Government to fund elections in Guinea-Bissau.

STRIKES PROMISED
--------------

6. (SBU) UNTG (the government workers' union) and

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Sinaprof (the teachers' union) have both announced strikes
for January. UNTG claims the new work schedule puts an
undue burden on employees who now have extra
transportation and meal expenses associated with having to
return to work in the afternoon after a 2.5-hour lunch
break. The Government has still not managed to pay all
outstanding teachers' salaries although the Minister of
Finance has stated that all arrears will be paid before
Christmas. In PolOff's discussions with the Presidents of
both unions, they complained of the government's
unwillingness to engage in dialogue and preference to rule
by decree.

COMMENT
--------------

7. (SBU) Some of the budget and program delays can be
attributed to the holidays, but reluctance to make
difficult decisions also seems be plaguing all three
branches and to have put the brakes on the initial
momentum the Gomes government had. Without the six votes
that Benante is holding hostage, it is unlikely the
Government would get the necessary majority for approval.
The current political situation may deteriorate due to the
inability of the various factions to attempt, let alone
reach, any compromise. Instead of engaging in
constructive dialogue and relinquishing any ground to the
opposite side, the disaffected rush to the Supreme Court
for a ruling to resolve differences. Mission is hopeful
that NDI's parliamentary training program, which is
scheduled to begin in January, may assist the ANP and
civil society to focus on priorities and common interests.
While the military is unlikely to intervene at this time,
unless the political leaders in and outside the government
can begin to work together and put personal differences
and egos aside, it is not difficult to imagine dispute
resolution by force of arms, as has been Bissau-Guineans'
practice in the past. END COMMENT.

JACKSON