MALDIVES: GOVERNMENT APPEARS READY TO REGISTER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 000946 SIPDIS SENSITIVE STATE FOR SA/INS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM MV SUBJECT: MALDIVES: GOVERNMENT APPEARS READY TO REGISTER POLITICAL PARTIES REF: A. COLOMBO 0845 ¶B. COLOMBO 0837 -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) On May 21 President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom asked the People's Majlis in its next session to take up the question of whether to allow the registration of political parties. The President's directive follows an opinion issued by the Attorney General overturning a 2001 finding from his predecessor that political parties are not allowed under the Constitution. The People's Majlis, which in the past has functioned largely to rubber stamp "requests" from the President, is expected to move expeditiously on the question when its second session opens on June 1. Opposition activists from the unregistered Maldivian Democratic Party welcomed the move, while cautioning that they expect Gayoom to try to co-opt the process by forming his own political party. End summary. -------------- PEOPLE'S MAJLIS TO REVIEW LEGALITY OF POLITICAL PARTIES -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On May 21 President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom asked the People's Majlis to review in its upcoming session an earlier decision rejecting the registration of political parties in the island republic. The President's request, conveyed in a letter to the Speaker of the Majlis, referred to a May 1 opinion issued by Attorney General Dr. Hassan Saeed finding that the Constitution as currently framed does not prohibit the registration and operation of political parties (Ref A). Saeed's finding contradicts a 2001 opinion issued by then-Attorney General Mohamad Munavvar (now, ironically, a founding member of the opposition Maldivian Democratic Party) that the Constitution did not provide for the registration and operation of political parties. The next session of the People's Majlis is scheduled to open on June 1. According to the Canadian High Commission, Attorney General Saeed told the High Commissioner that he expects the Majlis to move quickly on the question, possibly deciding within a week of its opening session. -------------- MALDIVIAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY HAPPY-- FOR ONCE -------------- ¶3. (SBU) In a May 23 meeting with poloff, Mohamad Latheef, the head of the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) who lives in self-imposed exile in Sri Lanka, and Ibrahim Zaki, former SAARC Secretary General who was detained after the August 12-13 civil unrest in the Maldivian capital, said they welcomed Gayoom's move. Latheef said he believes it signals a recognition by the President that he cannot turn off popular demand for reform--but also a desire to control and shape those reforms according to his own agenda. That said, by approving the drive to register political parties, the President's "agenda is now our agenda," Latheef declared. By directing the People's Majlis to "reconsider" its 2001 decision that the Constitution does not allow for political parties, Latheef said, Gayoom was bypassing the slow-moving Special Majlis, which had been specifically formed to review proposed constitutional amendments. Since a "request" from the President is generally interpreted as an instruction, the People's Majlis can be expected to act quickly to endorse the recommendation, the pair indicated. ¶4. (SBU) Zaki and Latheef described themselves as optimistic about current trends, including ongoing efforts, initiated by the April 30 return to Maldives of MDP Chairperson Mohamad Nasheed (Ref B),to organize the MDP in the island nation. Nasheed had succeeded in renting office space--not advertised publicly as an MDP office, according to Latheef, but everyone knows what/where it is--distributing leaflets, signing up 7,200 unofficial "members" in the capital of Male' and holding several unofficial meetings and forums, Latheef reported, without harassment by government authorities. So far efforts to organize on outlying atolls lag behind those in the capital, Latheef acknowledged, but indicated there are plans to move ahead. ¶5. (SBU) The MDP has formed a five-man leadership committee, composed of Latheef (who remains in Sri Lanka), Nasheed (who has just returned to Maldives),Zaki, People's Majlis Member and former detainee Ibrahim Ismail, and former Attorney General and former People's Majlis Member Mohamad Munavvar. Latheef said that he hopes to return to Maldives to meet Gayoom, together with the other four MDP leaders, but only if the President guarantees him "safe passage." Although President Gayoom has made no direct overtures to members of the MDP, Zaki and Latheef said, his personal secretary has sent out "feelers" to Zaki and a few others. SIPDIS So far the MDP is resisting these overtures, seeing in this approach a divide-and-conquer effort to isolate key members, Latheef said. -------------- GAYOOM TO FORM OWN PARTY? -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Zaki and Latheef said they believe President Gayoom is trying to form his own political party to counter the popularity of the MDP and had invited prominent businessman and former detainee Ibrahim Gasim to join his party. They indicated that Gasim, whom they described as still traumatized by his earlier incarceration, may feel pressure to accept the offer. Even if the President's effort ends up being no more than "a sham party" with little popular backing, at least Gayoom is "going through the process" of institutionalizing a party system, Latheef commented, which the MDP can only welcome. Other parties besides the MDP and the President's might also emerge, including one or two Islamic parties, Latheef indicated. Expressing doubt that Gayoom "really wants competitive politics on a level playing field," Latheef warned that special care must be exercised to ensure that the nascent system allows for the development of truly democratic parties. Specialized organizations like the National Democratic Institute might be able to help in this process, he suggested. ¶7. (SBU) According to political officer Jean-Philippe Linteau of the Canadian High Commission, Canadian High Commissioner Valerie Raymond heard similar information during her May 8-9 visit to Maldives. Education Minister Dr. Mahmood Shaugee reportedly claimed credit for urging Gayoom to move ahead with his own party, advising him that, in the absence of such an institution, competing family interests (specifically, Gayoom's brother and Trade Minister Abdulla Yameen and brother-in-law and Transport Minister Ilyas Ibrahim) would split and weaken pro-Government forces. People's Majlis MP and MDP member Ibrahim Ismail predicted to Raymond that when/if parties are legalized, the MDP might likely split into several opposition parties, including one or more Islamic parties. -------------- SPECIAL MAJLIS: SLOW BOAT TO REFORM -------------- ¶8. (SBU) In a May 13 meeting with poloff in Colombo, Ali Faiz, a Special Majlis MP who was detained after the August 12-13 unrest, said he believes that some members of the Special Majlis, including the Speaker, are deliberately slow-boating review of proposed constitutional amendments. Faiz said he had proposed several steps to speed up deliberations--including increasing the number of working hours (an average of three and a half hours a day, which is more or less standard for Government officials) and regularizing the schedule of sessions (now a sporadic two days a week but adhering to "no special pattern"),all of which have not been acted upon. Right now, Faiz said, the Special Majlis is still enmeshed in considering no fewer than 66 rules of procedure--a process begun in October--and has not even begun to take up the proposed amendments. Moreover, the rules of procedure are being adopted in such a way as to allow the pro-Gayoom Speaker ample "room for maneuvering," Faiz warned darkly, e.g., leaving the Speaker too much leeway in deciding what items get put on the agenda. The leisurely pace adopted by the Special Majlis suggests to Faiz that "truly they (the Government) don't want to move fast" on reform. Instead, "Gayoom is buying time" to delay, the former detainee charged. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Gayoom may indeed have mixed motives for legalizing political parties including, as the MDP suggests, a wish to control the direction of reform his way. Nonetheless, even the perpetually pessimistic MDP finds cause for optimism in Gayoom's move, and so do we. If parties are legalized, the next important step, as the MDP suggests, is to ensure that the ensuing institutions are truly democratic in organization and operation. We will monitor impending developments closely to see what scope there may be for U.S. assistance in this effort. LUNSTEAD