SRI LANKA: GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCES IT IS PREPARED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 000404 SIPDIS STATE FOR SA/INS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/22/2015 TAGS: PGOV PTER CE LTTE SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCES IT IS PREPARED FOR "DIRECT NEGOTIATIONS" ON INTERIM AUTHORITY REF: A. COLOMBO 0312 ¶B. COLOMBO 0359 Classified By: AMB. JEFFREY J. LUNSTEAD. REASON: 1.4 (B,D). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) In a speech marking the third anniversary of the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA),Jayantha Dhanapala, head of the Government of Sri Lanka (GSL) Peace Secretariat, announced on February 22 that the GSL is "ready to reopen direct negotiations" with the insurgent Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) on an interim authority, to be followed by efforts toward "negotiating a final settlement of the ethnic conflict." Public statements by other key actors in the peace process were notably less conciliatory. In a separate statement from Kilinochchi the same day, LTTE political chief Thamilchelvan accused the GSL of waging "a covert war" against the Tigers, while Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe issued a warning from Colombo that the ceasefire, signed during his tenure as PM, was "under threat." Although the GSL has publicly noted before its willingness to talk about an unspecified interim authority--rather than the controversial Interim Self-Governing Authority (ISGA) proposed by the Tigers--this is the first time such a statement has been issued unconditionally, without the usual qualifiers that a resolution reflect territorial integrity, national sovereignty or the principle of federalism. Although the LTTE has not formally responded to this possible overture, we view it a hopeful sign of GSL intentions to revive the peace process. End summary. -------------- THREE-YEAR CEASEFIRE; STILL NO LASTING PEACE -------------- ¶2. (U) At a public forum on February 22 to celebrate the third anniversary of signing of the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) between the Government of Sri Lanka (GSL) and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE),GSL Peace Secretariat head Jayantha Dhanapala read out an official statement announcing GSL readiness for direct talks with the LTTE on an interim authority, followed by negotiations on a final resolution to the ethnic conflict. The anniversary commemoration coincided with a visit to Sri Lanka by Norwegian special envoy Erik Solheim, who arrived in the country on February 21 for talks with GSL and LTTE leaders. Solheim last visited one month ago. ¶3. (U) The text of the GSL statement follows below: While expressing satisfaction that the continued absence of full-scale conflict has saved many valuable lives and prevented widespread destruction, the Government of Sri Lanka regrets that despite all its efforts, a positive atmosphere for negotiating a lasting solution has still not been created. For its part, the Government of Sri Lanka reiterates its strong commitment towards the implementation of the CFA in letter and spirit. It continues to be ready to reopen direct negotiations with the LTTE on the establishment of an interim authority to meet the urgent humanitarian and development needs of the people of the North and East and to proceed thereafter to negotiating a final settlement of the ethnic conflict. The Government hopes that all concerned will cooperate to remove the scourge of conflict and political violence from our country enabling all Sri Lankans to live together in peace and harmony. End text of statement. ¶4. (U) As of mid-day February 23 (a national holiday),the LTTE had not issued an official response to Dhanapala's statement. Instead, its website featured a statement from S.P. Thamilchelvan, head of the Tigers' political wing, issued the same day after meeting Solheim at LTTE headquarters in Kilinochchi. Citing the February 7 killing of LTTE eastern military leader Kausalyan (Ref A),the Tiger political ideologue accused the GSL of undermining the ceasefire by waging "a covert war" against the LTTE. (Note: Responsibility for the killing has been claimed by the Tamil National Force, a previously unknown and possibly fictitious organization. The LTTE continues to allege Sri Lankan security forces' involvement in the incident. End note.) Despite these alleged provocations, LTTE "leadership is determined to remain fully committed to peace initiatives with whatever international support we may get . . . (and) with extreme patience despite the murders, CFA violations and instigations," Thamilchelvan averred. ¶5. (U) Other key actors' anniversary statements sounded ominous notes about the strength of the CFA, weakened by repeated violations and two years of stasis on the negotiating front. Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe, under whose tenure as Prime Minister the CFA was signed, issued a statement from Colombo on February 22 warning that "the Ceasefire Agreement and the ceasefire are under threat." Hagrup Hauckland, head of the Sri Lankan Monitoring Mission (SLMM),cautioned that "lack of peace is putting a serious strain on the ceasefire and creating dangerous uncertainty," adding that assassinations and killings "pose a serious threat to the peace process." -------------- A POST-TSUNAMI SEA CHANGE? -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Although Dhanapala's statement did not specifically refer to the Tiger's controversial proposal for an Interim Self-Governing Authority (ISGA)--which the LTTE insists must form the sole basis for resumed negotiations--neither did it include the usual GSL qualifiers and conditionalities, e.g., that a resolution must respect the principles of federalism and/or national sovereignty and/or territorial integrity. Nonetheless, Dhanapala said on a morning talk show February 23 that the statement does not signal a change in GSL policy. The same fundamental differences in the parties' position remain, he explained: LTTE "unilateralist" insistence on the ISGA and GSL preference for "the more generic phrase like Interim Authority (which) would enable all proposals to be discussed." ¶7. (C) None of our interlocutors attached much significance to the February 22 announcement either. Kethesh Loganathan of the Center for Policy Alternatives, a prominent local think tank, said that the statement does not represent a shift in the GSL stance since it did not address the major sticking point--the LTTE demand for ISGA--that has been impeding resumed negotiations for more than a year. Gajen Ponnambalam, an MP for the pro-LTTE Tamil National Alliance (TNA),also discounted the possibility that the statement offers new room for maneuvering. "There is no change in (GSL) position," he told us flatly, because it continues to exclude the ISGA as a basis for revived talks. The LTTE has always been ready to discuss any "shortcomings" in its ISGA proposal at the negotiating table, he asserted, while President Kumaratunga has already acknowledged that "75 percent of the ISGA is not objectionable." As long as the GSL does not formally accept the ISGA as a basis for talks, Ponnambalam indicated, the TNA sees little chance for progress. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) Dhanapala's disclaimer notwithstanding, we nonetheless view the announcement as significant. While we have often heard GSL interlocutors privately assert readiness to discuss a non-specific interim arrangement, we have never before heard Kumaratunga's government--with its debilitating dependence on the jingoistic Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) as a coalition partner--publicly avow this position without qualifications or conditions. In the aftermath of the December 26 tsunami, President Kumaratunga sees herself riding a wave of international and domestic good will, shored up by substantial pledges of financial assistance, that makes her less solicitous of JVP demands (Ref B). We believe this simple statement, devoid of stipulations about federalism or national sovereignty, offers important new possibilities to find common ground for renewed dialogue. LUNSTEAD