OPPOSITION POST-MORTEM OF ELECTORAL DEFEAT: SOME

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 002141 SIPDIS STATE FOR SA/INS USPACOM FOR FPA E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/2015 TAGS: PGOV CE SUBJECT: OPPOSITION POST-MORTEM OF ELECTORAL DEFEAT: SOME MPS SEES PARTY LEADER AS DEAD WEIGHT REF: A. COLOMBO 1988 ¶B. COLOMBO 2003 Classified By: DCM James F. Entwistle. Reason: 1.4 (B, D). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) In the wake of the United National Party's (UNP) defeat at the November 17 presidential polls, some members of Sri Lanka's oldest political party are questioning once again whether Ranil Wickremesinghe, who led the party to defeat in 13 of the last 14 electoral contests, should continue as head. A group of 30 "reformist" MPs is pushing Karu Jayasuriya, the UNP's avuncular Deputy Leader, to replace Wickremesinghe. However, in addition to being a perennial loser, Wickremesinghe is also a perennial survivor, and we expect this latest challenge to his authority, like others before it, will eventually fade away. End summary. -------------- SEE RANIL RUN AND LOSE-- AND RUN AND LOSE AGAIN -------------- ¶2. (C) The defeat of Ranil Wickremesinghe in the November 17 presidential election marks the United National Party's (UNP) thirteenth loss in fourteen electoral contests (at the local, provincial and national levels) under Wickremesinghe's leadership. With so many losses in such a comparatively short time, some UNP stalwarts are once again reassessing Wickremesinghe's suitability as leader of Sri Lanka's oldest democratic party. These "reformist" MPs argue that the time for a change is now--before local body elections (due in late March) or general elections (which the President may call at any time). As a result, the party is in "a terrible dilemma" with an ugly "internecine" battle brewing within, according to one such reformer, Sajith Premadasa, UNP MP from Hambantota and son of the late President Ranasinghe Premadasa, who was assassinated by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in 1993. Morale in the party is at an all-time low, he asserted; another MP described the UNP rank-and-file as dispirited and "frustrated." A businessman close to the UNP told poloff recently that even dyed-in-the-wool Wickremesinghe supporters were beginning to question the wisdom of keeping Wickremesinghe on as party leader. ¶3. (C) For the anti-Wickremesinghe faction, the LTTE boycott of the election is not an adequate excuse for their candidate's defeat; the UNP must improve its standing among Sinhalese voters if it hopes to regain the leadership of the nation. These reformists complain that Wickremesinghe, who is perceived as an aloof, westernized intellectual, is "difficult to market" to the rural Sinhalese Buddhist south. Dr. Rajitha Senaratne, UNP MP from Kalutara, observed to poloff that Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) candidate Mahinda Rajapaksa won 60 percent of the Sinhalese vote despite the fact that much of his party's machinery--including incumbent president Chandrika Kumaratunga--was turned against him. "In our case, we were all working together" and still could not win, he lamented. Wickremesinghe is undoubtedly smart and can speak well in diplomatic, parliamentary and/or academic circles, but lacks the common, glad-handing, "man-of-the-people" touch that worked so well for Rajapaksa during the election, Senaratne continued. On the campaign trail, Rajapaksa spoke like a villager, dressed like a villager and talked about the concerns of villagers, whereas the UNP leader appeared too affluent, wore too many suits, spoke too much English and had too many Christian relatives to prevail at the polls, Senaratne observed. (Comment: Rajapaksa's own potential vulnerabilities on many of the same scores--that he is just as affluent as his opponent, has several siblings living in the U.S., as well as a Catholic wife--were never played up in the campaign.) Kabir Hashim, UNP MP from Kegalle, commented to poloff in a separate meeting that with Wickremesinghe at the helm, "we've been tagged as a bourgeois party." -------------- REFORMIST REBELLION OR RANIL REDUX? -------------- ¶4. (C) Senaratne reported that a group of about 30 "reformist" UNP MPs plan to confront Wickremesinghe soon with a request that he convene a meeting of all MPs to discuss next steps for the party. At that meeting, Senaratne said, the MPs will propose that Wickremesinghe continue as Opposition Leader but give de facto leadership of the party to his deputy Karu Jayasuriya, who is perceived as more popular with voters. In addition, the rebel MPs plan to recommend that hidebound party institutions be democratized, e.g., that the 55-member working committee of the party be elected, rather than appointed by Wickremesinghe. Besides the 30 MPs, Senaratne estimated that another 10 or so may back the plan, giving the reformists a clear majority of the 67 UNP MPs. He added that Wickremesinghe could always return as the party's candidate in the 2011 presidential election--it is just important that right now the UNP show a fresh face. ¶5. (C) Others in the party are less sure that Wickremesinghe, who has faced previous challenges to his leadership, will fold that easily. Hashim expressed confidence that Wickremesinghe will weather this storm as calmly and successfully as he did an earlier attempt to dump him--again, in favor of the more personable Jayasuriya--after the UNP defeat in the 2004 general elections. Rebels Senaratne and Premadasa predicted that Wickremesinghe will attempt to wait out the challenge--trying to appease the reformers by promising to take their concerns to heart but then never actually doing anything--a tactic that both conceded has worked before for him and could work again. This time, however, Senaratne cautioned, "sentiments (against Wickremesinghe) are harder." ¶6. (C) The victorious SLFP, meanwhile, is almost gleeful about the UNP's "terrible dilemma." Basil Rajapaksa, the president's brother and campaign advisor, told us that the UNP once again sorely misjudged the popular rural pulse, offering a new welfare program that farmers feared would threaten their existing "Samurdhi" payments. SLFP MP and presidential advisor Dulles Alahapperuma indicated to poloff recently that his party does not expect Wickremesinghe to budge--and hopes that some of the disgruntled rebel UNP MPs could then be lured to cross the aisle and join the government. If enough of them did so, Alahapperuma speculated, Rajapaksa might be able to obtain a parliamentary majority without calling general elections. (Note: As reported Ref B, Rajapaksa told the Ambassador on November 26 that a number of senior UNPers had wanted to cross over after the election but were turned down because they wanted Cabinet posts.) Alahapperuma added that Rajapaksa will likely put off parliamentary elections for the time being anyway, since the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP),whose support provided a critical boost to Rajapaksa's presidential campaign, is expected to demand 55 parliamentary seats (up from its current total of 39) as the price of its support. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) In a November 22 meeting with the Ambassador, Wickremesinghe cited "tremendous grassroots pressure" as preventing him from giving up the party leadership (Ref A). We are a little skeptical of this claim. With so many electoral defeats at his feet, we expect the pressure among UNP organizers in the field, who have worked so long for so little reward, may be pulling in the opposite direction. That said, Wickremesinghe has displayed remarkable staying power and may well be able to navigate his way clear of this latest rough spot. Just as in the rival SLFP, family matters in the UNP, and the conservative party faithful may be reluctant to buck Wickremesinghe, the anointed heir to the legacy of the late great UNP president J.R. Jayawardene (his maternal uncle). Another point in Wickremesinghe's favor: Karu Jayasuriya, the only likely immediate rival for the leadership, although a genial and well-respected politician, seems to lack the wiliness and competitive drive needed to rally the malcontented MPs behind him. Even if the rebel MPs do manage to bring their proposal before the party's parliamentary committee--and that is a very big if--we doubt they will be able to muster enough support to keep Ranil from running again. LUNSTEAD