Post-MFA Sri Lankan Garment Sector Faring Well,

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 002122 SIPDIS DEPT PASS TO USTR JON ROSENBAUM; GENEVA TO USTR SENSITIVE E.O 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON ETRD CE ECONOMICS SUBJECT: Post-MFA Sri Lankan Garment Sector Faring Well, But Nervous About Increasing Challenges REF: Colombo 965 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The first post-MFA year for the Sri Lankan garment industry has been an up and down year for exports, with annual sales finishing slightly above their 2005 mark. As Sri Lanka faces increasing price pressure from other countries, especially China, it is seeking advantages in both constructive ways, such as through its efforts to brand Sri Lanka as ?the ethical source for apparel? via the Global Reporting Initiative, and less useful ways, such as the continued quixotic attempt to pursue a free trade agreement with the US, despite no clear evidence that such an agreement would actually benefit the apparel sector. While Sri Lanka?s large garment manufacturers are continuing to do well in a quota-free world, its small and medium-sized producers are feeling the pinch, and initial indications are that some (though not many) have folded. Nonetheless, sector outlook remains strong, with the country?s Joint Apparel Association Forum continuing to forecast growth into 2007 (though possibly not as strong as growth forecast prior to the MFA expiration). End Summary ¶2. (U) In the year since the expiration of the multi-fiber agreement?s (MFA) quota system (reftel),Sri Lanka has faced a tumultuous ride of export increases and decreases on a month-to-month basis, though overall exports are up slightly for the year. Sri Lanka's textile and apparel exports increased 3.3 percent in the first ten months of ¶2005. Exports declined 7.2 percent in October. ¶3. (SBU) The story becomes more complicated when broken into component parts, however. Sri Lanka?s high-end manufacturers have increased their exports significantly (MAS Holdings, Sri Lanka?s largest manufacturer expects sales to have increased by 17 percent in 2005),taking advantage of their strong customer relationships and building on their efforts to create backward and forward linkages to the entire garment design, manufacture and retailing process. Sri Lanka?s Joint Apparel Association Forum (JAAF) the apparel sector interest group formed specifically to guide the garment sector through the quota phase out, continues to project that overall Sri Lankan garment exports will double by 2007, to over USD 4 billion annually, though their Assistant Secretary General recently told EconFSN they may have to revise this target, in light of increased global price pressure. Sri Lanka: the ?Ethical? Source for Apparel -------------- ¶4. (U) Many Sri Lankan manufacturers are looking at other ways to improve competitiveness, including investing in brands (MAS recently bought into a well-known Indian brand, hoping to gain experience in brand management and development) and promoting non-price differentiation, such as a recent JAAF-promoted initiative, in partnership with the Global Reporting Initiative, to ?brand? Sri Lanka as the ?ethical sourcing destination for apparel.? This program, which is designed to highlight Sri Lanka?s commitment to strong labor practices, environmental protection and corporate social responsibility, is aimed at attracting garment buyers whose parent companies want to avoid sourcing from sweatshops and countries with poor labor and environmental standards. ¶5. (U) The Global Reporting Initiative?s mission is to ?develop and disseminate a generally accepted framework for reporting sustainability information.? It seeks to do this through ?Sustainability Reporting? which is the communication by an organization about their economic, environmental and social performance. Sustainability reporting is seen as complementary to financial reporting and helps to provide an assessment of the ?quality and quantity of an organization?s intangible assets, risks, opportunities, governance, stakeholder relationships and quality of management.? On 13 December, JAAF and several key garment manufacturers hosted a stakeholder?s forum to discuss the benefits of sustainability reporting. ¶6. (U) While JAAF and the large manufacturers are enthused about the prospects for sustainability reporting, they continues to face the challenge that buyers are usually not willing to offer any premium for ?ethically? manufactured clothes. This forces Sri Lanka to compete directly against poor labor practices and perceived unfair trade practices in competitor countries like China, which is a significant challenge. Small and Medium Sector Not Faring So Well -------------- ¶7. (U) While the signs look positive for most of the big players, the picture is more mixed for the small and medium-sized players, whose competitiveness has waned considerably in the face of competition from companies and countries with much greater economies of scale. Oxfam recently prepared a survey in preparation for its study on the affects of the MFA phase-out, which reported that since January 2005, 15 garment factories have closed, displacing as many as 3,000 workers. All 15 factories were small- scale producers. Small producers comprise about 80 percent of the 735 garment factories in Sri Lanka. Nonetheless, it is not clear that there has been an overall negative impact on employment in the sector, as larger JAAF members have consistently reported a need for several thousand new workers in the industry. US Remains Sri Lanka?s Best Customer -------------- ¶8. (U) The US remains by far Sri Lanka?s primary garment sector customer, importing approximately 60 percent of Sri Lanka?s garment exports. The GSL, JAAF and other entities in Sri Lanka continue to lament the lack of preferential access to the US market for Sri Lankan garments. There are several reasons that Sri Lanka developed a sense of entitlement to these preferences, despite the fact that it has never been particularly likely they would be realized. Prior FTA Momentum Recalled -------------- ¶9. (SBU) The GSL and Sri Lankan business community continue to push the idea of a free trade agreement with the US. This effort is almost entirely driven by the garment sector, which views such an agreement as an opportunity for preferential market access. Under former Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, Sri Lanka was close to beginning negotiations with the US on a Free Trade Agreement (a point still, at a minimum, years away from a final agreement). But Wickremesinghe?s government fell soon after this process got underway, and more protectionist United People?s Freedom Alliance (UPFA) and Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) governments have come to power since. While these subsequent Governments continue to desire a free trade agreement ? they view it narrowly as a means to increase garment market access. They do not tend to understand the scope or nature of an FTA. ¶10. (SBU) The GSL has also become less supportive and less helpful toward US pursuits in the WTO and has adopted tariffs and fees that have had a detrimental impact on imported US products in Sri Lanka. Furthermore, Sri Lanka seems to be blissfully ignorant of the fact that, as a net importer of textiles, normal rules-of-origin requirements would probably significantly restrict the value of an FTA to the garment export trade. Tsunami Aid as Trade? SIPDIS -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Beyond the desires for an FTA, Sri Lanka has also pursued legislation in the US that would grant duty free access for all Sri Lankan products (including garments) for five years, as a form of post-tsunami assistance. Sri Lanka?s former Ambassador to the US, who is now a lobbyist for JAAF, has been pushing this measure. He continues to represent its potential for success favorably in Colombo, despite what Post understands to be very long odds on Capitol Hill. ¶12. (SBU) The US was recently accused in the press by Sri Lanka?s Trade Minister as having ?reneged? on a promise to provide duty-free access under this legislation, based on the Ambassador?s recent explanation to him that despite the fact it might be presented to Congress, its likelihood of passage, given the fact that the garment sector had been largely unaffected by the tsunami, and the well-coordinated anti-trade lobbying on the part of the US textile industries, was virtually nil. EU and GSP ?Plus? -------------- ¶13. (U) Sri Lanka?s recognition by the EU for its strong labor standards and eligibility for GSP ?Plus? status, which provides duty free access for Sri Lankan products, including garments, was widely seen as a huge potential growth opportunity. Nonetheless, initial indications are that Sri Lankan exports to the EU have not performed well, largely as a result of the restrictive rules-of-origin requirements (Note: the same problem it would likely face in any kind of preferential agreement with the US. End Note). It is expected that the EU rules of origin will be relaxed in 2006, but it is not clear how much relaxation would be required in order for Sri Lanka to recognize significant gains in the EU market. Comment -------------- ¶14. (SBU) Sri Lanka?s large apparel manufacturers are well run and forward thinking. Nonetheless, their continued fear of China and other Asian competitors appears to lead them into unhealthy pursuits, such as the desire for preferential trade agreements that may or may not have much direct benefit. Sri Lanka is a net importer of textiles for the garment sector (over USD 1.5 billion imported each year) so normal rules of origin standards would probably erase any significantly useful gains from a preferential trade agreement. Furthermore, even when the industry does gain some breathing space (such as when the US and China reached an agreement to control the growth of China?s garment exports to the US),it immediately begins to pursue the next option to promote preferential access, rather than more fully exploring useful ways to use the breathing space for productivity enhancements, supply chain consolidations or investments in other industries (such as textiles) to make the overall sector more competitive (Note: some garment manufacturers are pursuing these innovations, but not all. End Note). The Ambassador and Econchief have been using increasingly blunt language to urge the Sri Lankan garment community and the GSL to recognize and accept the low likelihood of a US-Sri Lanka trade agreement, the lack of usefulness of such an agreement to the garment sector, and that the increasingly unhelpful policies and positions that Sri Lanka is adopting both in its domestic economic and trade policies and in its pursuits in international trade fora, particularly the WTO, could have consequences. While we expect to see Sri Lanka?s calls for preferential access continue, given the simplistic and one-dimensional views of the GSL?s Trade Minister, we also believe that the sector has a strong future, once it accepts that it will have to compete with China on price and as an equal in terms of access to large markets and begins to focus its attention on needed domestic economic policy reforms that could further liberalize the economy and promote a stronger, more dynamic business sector. End Comment Entwistle