SRI LANKA: OPPOSITION LEADER'S VIEWS ON LOST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001988

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/2015
TAGS: PGOV PTER CE LTTE
SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: OPPOSITION LEADER'S VIEWS ON LOST
ELECTION, PEACE PROCESS

REF: COLOMBO 1975

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JEFFREY J. LUNSTEAD FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) and (
d)


1. Summary: On November 22, the Ambassador met with Ranil
Wickremesinghe, leader of the opposition United National
Party (UNP) and unsuccessful candidate in the November 17
presidential election by a margin of under 200,000 votes.
Wickremesinghe expressed surprise that the Liberation Tigers
of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) blocked Tamils in the north and east
from voting-- a move that probably cost him the presidency.
He also offered his view that newly elected President Mahinda
Rajapakse will have a difficult time moving the peace process
forward and stated that he (Wickremesignhe) would remain at
the helm of the UNP. While many expected Wickremesinghe to
step down as UNP head after his electoral defeat, his staying
power attests to dynastic influence in Sri Lankan politics.
End summary.

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ELECTION RESULTS
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2. (C) At a November 22 meeting with the Ambassador,
opposition United National Party (UNP) leader and
unsuccessful presidential candidate Ranil Wickremesinghe
noted that he had not expected the Liberation Tigers of Tamil
Eelam (LTTE) to block Tamils from voting in the north and
east. He speculated that if current president Mahinda
Rajapakse had won the election with Tamils in those regions
permitted to vote, then the LTTE might have made the case
that Rajapakse's Sinhalese nationalist supporters were
intractable and unwilling to accommodate the Tamil minority.
However, Wickremesinghe posited, the LTTE undermined that
claim and squandered any potential international sympathy by
not letting Tamils vote. He assessed that the Tigers had not
accounted for the international condemnation that ensued from
"hardliners" within the LTTE deciding to prohibit Tamils from
voting.


3. (C) Wickremesinghe said that the election commissioner
turned down his request for re-polling in the north and the
east. He also said he'd had reports that the French, Dutch,
and Italian Ambassadors had pressured the EU observer team
not to insist on re-polling. However, he said he won't
pursue the case in court, joking, "We can use that money for
a good meal!" He agreed with the Ambassador's assessment
that the LTTE's campaign of voter intimidation would probably
ensure that a re-poll would have probably yielded the same
result. When the Ambassador asked about reports of names
being stricken from voter rolls, Wickremesinghe replied that
if the UNP voters whose names had been culled from election
roll sheets had been permitted to vote, he would have "won
the south."

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FUTURE OF THE PEACE PROCESS AND OF THE UNP
--------------


4. (C) Wickremesinghe pointed out that Rajapakse has "no one
to advise him on the peace process. He added that despite
the LTTE election boycott, he does not envision an immediate
return to hostilities, and he posited that if the LTTE wants
to formally break the Cease Fire Agreement, the Tigers will
engineer an incident that makes the Sri Lankan Army appear to
be the aggressor with the LTTE taking a "defensive" posture.
Wickremesinghe said he does not expect LTTE leader Velupillai
Prabhakaran to make a Unilateral Declaration of Independence
(UDI) during his November 27 Heroes' Day speech (an LTTE
equivalent to a State of the Union Address). However,
Wickremesinghe said the peace process will hinge on
Prabhakaran's comments, which may prove to be a "milestone."


5. (C) Countering several November 22 press reports that he
might give up the party leadership, Wickremesinghe said he
will stay on, citing "tremendous grassroots pressure" to do
so. He said he does not expect general elections anytime
soon, and the UNP will likely support the new government's
proposed budget when it is presented in parliament. He added
that for now, he expects the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC)
and the Ceylon Workers' Congress (CWC) will remain in the
opposition with the UNP. Wickremesignhe also said he sees
little room for UNP cooperation with the new President on the
pace process, considering Rajapakse's stated commitment to "a
unitary state," while the UNP supports a federal solution.
Wickremesinghe said that he will call on former president
Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga November 27.

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COMMENT
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6. (C) Like many pundits, even Wickremesinghe, who brokered
the Cease Fire Agreement with the LTTE and probably has the
most direct experience dealing with the Tigers of any
national leader, was surprised by the Tigers' decision to
enforce a boycott on the election. It remains to be seen how
the LTTE chooses to move forward, and along with
Wickremesinghe, we await Prabhakaran's Heroes' Day speech
with interest.


7. (C) Many had speculated that another loss for
Wickremesinghe-- totaling losses in 3 out of 4 national
elections for him-- would spell the end of his political
career. His allusion to masses of grassroots supports
notwithstanding, his continued leadership role in the UNP
speaks to the power of dynastic politics over viable
electability within the Sri Lankan context. End comment.

LUNSTEAD