LTTE DISCOURAGES TAMILS FROM VOTING, BLOW TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001943

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/15/2015
TAGS: PGOV PTER CE LTTE
SUBJECT: LTTE DISCOURAGES TAMILS FROM VOTING, BLOW TO
RANIL'S CHANCES


Classified By: AMB Jeffrey Lunstead. Reason: 1.4 (B,D)


1. (U) SUMMARY: Ending weeks of speculation about the
Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) stance in the
November 17 presidential election, the LTTE met late on
November 10 with their Tamil National Alliance (TNA) proxies
in Kilinochchi and announced that the Tamil people would "not
benefit from showing interest in the forthcoming election."
The LTTE/TNA statement, followed by calls for an election
boycott by several other LTTE-linked organizations, is being
widely interpreted as a message (and a threat) to Tamil
voters to stay home on election day. This, combined with
the November 9 Supreme Court decision requiring that polling
stations be moved further away from border crossings, may
handicap the United National Party candidate Ranil
Wickremesinge. In a November 14 Co-chairs meeting, the
European Union Ambassador-designate revealed that EU Election
monitor Lord Cushnahan might declare the election flawed if
Sri Lankan Freedom Party (SLFP) candidate Mahinda Rajapakse
won by a narrow margin. Co-chairs will meet Cushnahan prior
to his public statement. Suggested language to cover two
possible scenarios -- a free and fair election or a flawed
election -- will follow Septel. END SUMMARY.



2. (SBU) A meeting between the LTTE and TNA leaders to
discuss the election, postponed since November 4, concluded
late on November 10 with an announcement by TNA
parliamentarian R. Sampanthan that Tamil grievances and
aspirations had not been addressed when either of the two
major Sinhalese parties had been in power and that any
interest in the elections would be "a futile exercise." In an
apparent attempt to ameliorate the negative tone of the
announcement and their reputation as an undemocratic
organization, the LTTE and TNA muddied the waters by adding
that "neither the TNA nor the LTTE would advise people not to
vote." In the weeks preceding the meeting at the LTTE
headquarters in Kilinochchi, over 30 LTTE front organizations
called for boycotting the election. When asked for an
explanation of what the TNA announcement means, M.P.K.
Gajendran of the TNA told an embassy FSN bluntly, "When
people come to ask us, we tell them not to vote."


3. (C) Conventional wisdom holds that Tamils in general and
particularly those in LTTE -controlled areas would support
opposition United National Party (UNP) candidate Ranil
Wickremesinge, particularly when faced with the option of
Rajapakse and his Sinhalese chauvinist allies. A November 9
Supreme Court decision requiring that polling stations be at
least 500 meters from the military check points and that a
voter may be detained in police custody if his identity is
questioned might have an additional -- although not equal --
effect on suppressing the estimated 250,000 Tamil voters
living in uncleared areas. UNP insider G.L. Peiris glumly
told the DCM November 11 that Sampanthan's statement could
only be interpreted as a call for a Tamil boycott of the
election. All but conceding defeat for the UNP, Peiris said
the statement "will make the numbers very, very difficult for
us."


4. (C) The Co-chairs met on November 14 and concluded that
a statement criticizing the LTTE action would inevitably be
seen as favoring one candidate and hence interfering with the
election. At the meeting, Norwegian Ambassador Hans Brattskar
related that he had detected a sharp change in attitude
regarding the elections from the LTTE in Kilinochchi over the
last month. EU Ambassador-designate Julian Wilson EU chief
election monitor John Cushnahan was concerned that a victory
of 50,000 votes or less for Rajapakse would oblige him to
declare the election flawed because of the negative impact
the Supreme Court decision might have on potential
Wickremesinge votes. Cushnahan will meet the Co-chairs prior
to any announcement the evening of November 18. The
Co-chairs agreed that in case of a clear winner they should
individually prepare statements calling on the victor to
support the cease-fire agreement (CFA) and work with all
parties to move the peace process forward. We will send
suggested language for a statement Septel.


5. (C) COMMENT: The LTTE kept its cards close to its chest
until the eleventh hour. Even the TNA MPs were telling us
just a few weeks ago that they believed the LTTE would
quietly support Wickremesinge. For some reason, however, the
LTTE has decided to discourage Tamil participation. Why is
difficult to say. One theory is that a Rajapakse victory --
and the hard line on the peace process he is likely to adopt
-- would gain the LTTE some sympathy from the international
community. Another is that the LTTE is genuinely concerned
that no Sinhalese leader will meet their aspirations.
Whatever its motivation, the LTTE's words of discouragement
are certain to depress voter turn out in the north and east.
In a race that remains too close to call, this could prove
decisive.


6. (C) We are concerned by the possibility that Cushnahan
might issue a statement condemning the election as flawed on
the basis of the Supreme Court decision. If the voter
turn-out is low in the north and east, we believe the
LTTE/TNA announcement -- rather than the Supreme Court
decision -- will have been the key factor.
LUNSTEAD