SRI LANKA'S DIVERSE CENTRAL PROVINCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001866

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/28/2015
TAGS: PGOV CE
SUBJECT: SRI LANKA'S DIVERSE CENTRAL PROVINCE
HEADED FOR CLOSE ELECTION, BUT UNP LEADING

Classified By: DCM James F. Entwistle, for reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: On Poloff's October 23-26 trip to Sri Lanka's
Central Province, interlocutors in the three districts of Nuwara
Eliya, Kandy and Matale indicated that United National Party
(UNP) candidate Ranil Wickremesinghe was slightly ahead of the
Sri Lanka Freedom Party's (SLFP) Mahinda Rajapakse in the
runup to a very close election. The views of voters in this
ethnically diverse province could offer a good indication of
how different ethnic and religious groups plan to vote in the
election nationwide. Tamil dominated Nuwara Eliya has the most
widespread UNP support, while Kandy will likely have a slight
UNP majority and Matale's primarily Sinhalese residents are
likely to vote in higher numbers for the SLFP. Police and
government officials voiced confidence in a violence-free election,
but party organizers in Kandy and Matale are concerned about
voter intimidation and vote rigging. Our contacts observed that
up to twenty percent of voters in the Central Province remain
undecided, and suggested that both parties' house-to-house
campaigns over the next three weeks will be crucial to the
outcome. End Summary.

Nuwara Eliya: Tamils Want to Avoid War at any Cost
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2. (C) Nuwara Eliya, the most southern of the Central Province's
three districts, is largely comprised of approximately 1.5
million "up-country" Tamils of Indian origin who work on the
tea plantations and support the UNP. In a meeting on October
24, former UNP Mayor of Nuwara Eliya S. Vivekananthan explained
to Poloff that the three most important issues to up-country
Tamils are the lack of land rights, opportunities for education
and health facilities. He noted that most up-country Tamils
plan to vote UNP because Ranil Wickremesinghe promised in his
manifesto to "banish current land permits and give the land
to Tamil occupants," while Mahinda Rajapakse is perceived as
anti-minority. He recalled that historically eighty-one percent
of the district's residents come out to vote, and predicted that
seventy percent of voters would support the UNP. At a meeting
with Nuwara Eliya's NGO leaders, Ms. Ranji Stubbs from MENCAFEP,
an NGO that assists mentally handicapped children, added that
Rajapakse's pact with the Sinhalese nationalist Janatha Vimukthi
Peramuna (JVP) and Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) raised concerns
among the otherwise election-weary plantation workers that an
SLFP victory would ruin the Cease Fire Agreement (CFA).
"Plantation Tamils don't know the details of the peace process,"
Stubbs reflected, "but if they think that there is even a one
percent chance that Rajapakse could take the country back to war,
then they will vote UNP."


3. (C) Most of the up-country Tamils traditionally belong to the
Ceylon Worker's Congress (CWC),a labor union-based political
party purportedly fighting for the rights of plantation workers,
which has pledged to support Ranil Wickremesinghe.
Interlocutors in the area described how corruption in the party
and disappointment in the leadership of Arumugan Thondaman, the
grandson of the CWC founder, are leading an increasing number of
workers to join the splinter Ceylon Worker's Alliance (CWA) and
the Up-Country People's Front (UPF). The CWA has supported
the SLFP since it came to power in 2000, and General Secretary

S. Sathasivam predicted that approximately ten to fifteen percent
of up-country Tamils will vote for the SLFP in the presidential
election. The CWA broke away from the Congress because of
political problems with the UNP and personal differences with
Thondaman, but Sathasivam highlighted President Kumaratunga's
role in starting the Plantation Infrastructure Ministry and looking
after the plight of the up-country Tamils over the last six years.

M. Lawrence, Vice President for the UPF, told Poloff that his
party supports the UNP because of Wickremesinghe's position on
devolution of power to the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam
(LTTE) and his promise to consider "giving up-country Tamils a
larger role in the peace process." He estimated that the CWC's
membership has decreased to 60,000 union members, which has
increased UPF support to almost 40,000. Commenting on the rise
of the UPF, Palm Foundation representative Saman ijebandara
worried that revolutionary Tamil youth in the area are joining
the group because they sympathize with the LTTE, which has close
UPF connections.

Kandy: Minorities and Urban Sinhalese Prefer UNP
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4. (SBU) In Kandy District, representatives of both minorities and
urban Sinhalese voters in the area were (perhaps overly) confident
of a UNP victory. Kandy has approximately 900,000 voters,
comprised of about 73 percent Sinhalese Buddhist, 11 percent
Tamil, 13 percent Muslim and 3 percent Christian. Urban voters
tend to support the pro-business UNP, and can afford to be more
focused on the peace process. Kandy CWC organizer Mathi Yuga
Rajah emphasized that Rajapakse's electoral pact with the JVP and
JHU was turning off swing voters, and invigorating the UNP base.
Attorney Harindra Dunuwille, former Mayor of the Municipal
Council and MP for Kandy District, added that President
Kumaratunga is sacrificing SLFP unity by publicly criticizing the
JVP, questioning the direction of her party's campaign, and
withholding full support for Rajapakse's campaign. SLFP
supporters in Kandy may not switch their vote to the UNP, he
predicted, but they won't come out to vote in strong numbers for
their candidate, rendering SLFP support among the Sinhalese in
Kandy relatively weak. Lakshman Perera, pastor of one of the
largest churches in Kandy, said that Christians were very
concerned about the rising influence of JVP and JHU power,
which could turn Rajapakse into a "puppet in JVP hands." "Sri
Lanka's Christians care most about maintaining peace, and will
vote for the UNP," he concluded.


Matale: UNP Will Divide the Country and Cut Welfare Benefits
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5. (C) Matale District residents are primarily Sinhalese farmers
and traders, a strong base for the SLFP, and are focused on
economic issues. In contrast to the South, where voters are more
confident in the UNP's ability to reduce the cost of living, the
"average man" in Matale is concerned about the future of the
Samurdhi Welfare Program. SLFP and UNP organizers estimate
that between forty and fifty percent of Matale residents receive a
monthly stipend of up to 1000 Sri Lanka Rupees (10 USD) from
the Samurdhi program. Both the SLFP and UNP promise to
increase benefits, but Wickremesinghe also plans to change the
name of the program to Siya Saviya (self-sufficiency). Saliya
Dayananda, a UNP organizer in the Dambulla electorate in
Matale, regretted that the name change has created a perception
among farmers that Ranil will change the program completely,
including cutting benefits. He speculated that this could be
"the deciding issue" for voters in the region, and called the
name change the biggest political blunder of the UNP campaign.
Capitalizing on this incorrect perception, Dambulla's SLFP
Secretary of the Central Committee Jayathilake stressed that his

SIPDIS
party is reminding villagers in their house to house campaign
that when Ranil became Prime Minister in 2001, he cut benefits
for the Samurdhi Welfare Program.


6. (C) Although the peace process is less of a priority in Matale
than in areas in the north and east, SLFP organizers around the
district asserted that Mahinda's pact with the JVP and JHU is not
a liability because villagers fear the UNP is too soft on the
LTTE and are increasingly supportive of the JVP. According to
SLFP Provincial Council Member Dhammika Angammana, in the 2001
General Elections, the JVP received almost 20,000 of the 210,000
Matale district votes (compared to 89,000 for the SLFP and
100,000 for the UNP). He explained that JVP support since then
has increased because people are losing confidence in politicians
from the two major parties. SLFP campaigners are stressing the
need to maintain a unitary state, and spreading the fear that if
Ranil becomes president, he will "divide the country." SLFP and
UNP interlocutors confirmed the widespread public perception that
Ranil is too soft on the LTTE. With 500 village level committees
and 25 cadres in each committee to spread the news, Matale SLFP
Provincial Council Member W. M. Yasamana plans to take this
message to every house in Matale within the next three weeks.

Prospects for Election Violence in Kandy and Matale
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7. (C) Police and election officials around the Central Province
expressed confidence that the elections would be free of violence,
but unofficial interlocutors remained worried about voter
intimidation and vote rigging. Kandy experienced the worst
election violence in recent years when the then-SLFP Deputy
Defense Minister was accused of killing 10 Muslim voters
during the 2001 General Elections. Nimal Mediwaka, the Deputy
Inspector General for the Central Province, admitted that previous
elections have been "a battlefield," but reported no election
violations in the 2004 General Elections. According to
Mediwaka, the improvement is due to the creation of the
independent National Police Commission, which has curbed the
impartiality and abuses of previous elections. In an October
23 meeting, Central Province police and party representatives
said they were committed to working for free and fair elections.
Mediwaka cited this as proof of a "changed attitude," and he
plans to continue holding the meetings on a weekly basis until
the elections to sort out any concerns.


8. (C) Nevertheless, UNP supporters and organizers in Kandy and
Matale, including former President of the Bar Association in
Kandy Shaul Maharoof, worried about the likelihood of SLFP
vote rigging and voter intimidation. Pastor Lakshman claimed
that the SLFP has circumvented election laws by placing teachers
who support the SLFP in polling places to overlook irregularities
and sending party activists to UNP stronghold villages to
intimidate voters. Traders at a local marketplace called the
Dambulla Economic Center were hesitant to discuss their views
out of fear that word would get back to "thuggish" SLFP MP
Janaka Bandara Tennekon, the current Minister of Provincial
Councils and Local Government. Most traders publicly stated they
would vote SLFP, but interestingly one SLFP "supporter" caught
up with POL FSN after the meeting in the public market to quietly
explain that most of the traders wanted Ranil to win, but were
worried about the repercussions if they were branded UNP
supporters.


Comment: Where you Stand Depends Upon Where you Live
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9. (U) While minority support for the UNP is no surprise,
interlocutors around the province believe that Wickremesinghe
has taken a slight lead since October and that Rajapakse's
campaign will continue to suffer from his JVP/JHU pact.
Anytime our contacts extrapolated their analysis to the country,
Ranil usually came out slightly ahead, but all admitted that it
is too close to call and that many voters will decide in the
next three weeks. Despite the stark choices the two main
candidates offer on the peace process and economy, many of our
interlocutors in Central Province observed that up to 20 percent
of voters remain undecided. When asked about the deciding
factor, analysts predicted that up-country Tamils will go with
the historical tendency to "vote for the elephant" (the UNP
symbol),Kandyans will support Ranil to continue the peace
process, and Matale villagers will fight for the SLFP to save
their monthly handout and keep the island intact.
LUNSTEAD