SRI LANKA: PRO-LTTE MP INDICATES CONCERN AT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001832 SIPDIS STATE FOR SA/INS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/19/2015 TAGS: PGOV PTER PHUM CE SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: PRO-LTTE MP INDICATES CONCERN AT POSSIBLE RAJAPAKSE POLLS VICTORY REF: A. COLOMBO 1779 ¶B. COLOMBO 1819 Classified By: AMB. JEFFREY J. LUNSTEAD. REASON: 1.4 (B,D). ¶1. (SBU) On October 19 poloff met in Colombo with Pathmini Sithamparanathan, Tamil National Alliance (TNA) MP from Jaffna, and her husband, Professor K. Shivakumaran, who teaches drama at Jaffna University. The couple told poloff they were in the capital to meet with a number of "Sinhalese friends" in different political organizations, including the pro-Marxist/nationalist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP),to explain the views of local residents in Jaffna regarding the impending November 17 presidential election. (Comment: Given the geographical and ideological proximity of TNA MPs to the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE),TNA discussions of "local views" generally echo Tiger talking points and can thus provide a window into current LTTE thinking.) ¶2. (C) The pair expressed dismay at the hard line on the peace process adopted by Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) presidential candidate and current Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse (Ref A). In general, the pair averred, people in north are not interested in the outcome of the election. Having given up their demand for a separate state, the Tamil people can accept nothing less than some kind of federal system that allows them the right to self-determination, they asserted. An SLFP victory at the polls would be disastrous for the peace process, the couple hinted. The international community, including the U.S., should prevail on outgoing President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga to work with opposition United National Party (UNP) presidential candidate Ranil Wickremesinghe to present the LTTE with a viable proposal based on a federal system, they urged. Poloff responded that bipartisan consensus on the peace process is important and desirable but emphasized that the U.S. does not favor one candidate over another. The U.S. will work with whomever is elected to advance the peace process; the crucial thing is that the polling be free, fair and non-violent. She asked if the LTTE would support that goal by refraining from intimidation and allowing Sri Lankan voters in Tiger-held territory to cross over to polling booths on the government side. Sithamparanathan asserted vigorously that the Tigers had no interest in obstructing the vote, since doing so would only help Rajapakse. Instead, the couple claimed, the real danger is that Sri Lankan Army (SLA) soldiers and anti-LTTE Eelam People's Democratic Party (EPDP) activists, knowing that Tamils in LTTE areas will likely vote for the opposition, may attempt to interfere. ¶3. (C) Professor Shivakumaran asked (somewhat wistfully) if the LTTE were to encourage people to vote, would the international community view such action favorably and re-engage with the Tigers. Having known the LTTE for a long time, he said, he could see that its members' thinking was changing, albeit gradually. Shunning the LTTE now could retard that positive development, he suggested. Like many Tamils, the professor said, he does not agree with everything the Tigers do but nonetheless believes the LTTE is the only organization capable of securing an equitable settlement for his community. Poloff noted that the Tigers would have to undertake a number of other measures--such as renouncing violence in word and deed--before the U.S. could engage with the Tigers. That said, the Tigers could demonstrate their commitment to the peace process by not impeding the vote. When asked who they think will win the presidential election, the pair looked troubled and said they believe it will be close. Even though they declared the UNP can count on the minority vote (which they quickly enumerated by district) and a good percentage of the majority vote as well, they both expressed concern that Wickremesinghe would fail to pull through. ¶4. (C) With respect to the killings of the two high school principals in Jaffna (Ref B),Sithamparanathan and her husband expressed bemusement at attempts in some Sinhalese and English newspapers to assign blame to the LTTE--especially since the Kopay College principal was an LTTE supporter. Other reports in the English and Sinhalese press that the Tigers had imposed a draconian "Taliban-like" dress code on female Tamils were equally erroneous, they said. Since female Tiger cadres themselves wear trousers, how could the LTTE prohibit other women from doing the same, Sithamparanathan observed. Such misleading press reports are part of an ongoing campaign from Sinhalese nationalist quarters to distort what is actually happening in the north, they asserted. ¶5. (C) Comment: Tiger thinking and behavior at any given time are hard to predict, but TNA representations can offer a window, however incomplete, into LTTE views. The couple's obvious concern at the prospect of a Rajapakse victory--and their broad hints that the international community thus ought to support the UNP--suggest parallel concerns may exist in Kilinochchi. The pair's almost plaintive plea for recognition of LTTE non-interference in the polling could indicate that the Tigers are feeling the sting of the near-universal international condemnation--including the EU's September 26 declaration of a travel ban--following the Kadirgamar assassination. We can only hope that the Tigers are as concerned as the TNA delegation suggested and will refrain from impeding the polling. LUNSTEAD