MALDIVES: FORMER DETAINEE EXPECTS FREER, FAIRER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000149 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/18/2015 TAGS: PGOV PHUM MV SUBJECT: MALDIVES: FORMER DETAINEE EXPECTS FREER, FAIRER ELECTIONS; MAINTAINS REFORM HOPES REF: A. COLOMBO 107 ¶B. 04 COLOMBO 1686 Classified By: AMB. JEFFREY J. LUNSTEAD. REASON: 1.4 (B,D). ¶1. (C) Summary: In a January 18 call on the Ambassador, former SAARC Secretary General and detainee Ibrahim Zaki expressed gratitude for U.S. support, crediting concern from the international community for the Government's decision to release him from detention and drop sedition charges against him (Ref A). He said he believes that parliamentary elections, scheduled for January 22, will be freer and fairer than previous polls, primarily because of international scrutiny of the process. He has told President Gayoom that he will support the President's reform efforts "from outside," and remains convinced of Gayoom's personal commitment to strengthening democracy. The key challenge, he indicated, is whether Gayoom will prevail against hard-liners within his own family and Cabinet. Zaki's mental and physical conditions seem much improved since his October meeting with the Ambassador (Ref B),and the long-time Government servant appears eager to mend his relations with Gayoom, if not with the rest of his government, and to resume his interrrupted political career. End summary. ¶2. (C) On January 18 Ibrahim Zaki, the former SAARC Secretary General who was detained following the civil unrest SIPDIS August 12-13 and charged with sedition, called on the Ambassador to express gratitude for his support, which Zaki credited with helping secure his release and the dropping of charges (Ref A). (Zaki, who was out of Maldives for the first time since August, was in Colombo for medical consultations.) The international community should continue to engage with the Government of Republic of Maldives (GORM), Zaki urged, suggesting that post-tsunami aid might be linked to progress on democratic reform. The Ambassador said that donors generally believed that humanitarian aid must be provided on the basis of need, rather than on whether or not we approve of GORM policy. ¶3. (C) On December 31--the same day that the GORM dropped sedition charges against Zaki and three other former detainees (Ref A)--President Gayoom had called Zaki to invite him to join the government, he reported. Zaki said he turned down the offer but agreed to support the President's reform efforts "from outside." Having already paid the price of being in detention, Zaki said he concluded that "it was best to engage with (Gayoom)" and re-open communication channels to urge progress on reform. He added that although he remains convinced of Gayoom's personal commitment to reform, hard-liners in the President's family and Cabinet were counseling a different course. He and the President basically agree on the need for reform, he commented; the main difference is that Gayoom favors "a slow track" and he "a fast track." Now that the Special Majlis (which was constituted specifically to consider constitutional reforms) has finished framing its bylaws, it should be ready to begin substantive work by the end of January, he said. ¶4. (C) Zaki predicted that People's Majlis elections, now scheduled to be held January 22, will be "65 percent free and fair"--a higher percentage, in his estimation, than in the past for several reasons. For the first time, the GORM is allowing representatives of candidates to observe the voting process, to travel with the ballot boxes collected on other islands to the capital in Male and to be present at the counting. In addition to the usual observers from SAARC nations, an election monitoring team from the Commonwealth Secretariat and a 25-member team of Maldivians sponsored by SIPDIS the Maldivian Human Rights Commission will also be deployed. Finally, increased scrutiny from the international media, as a result of GORM heavy-handedness in addressing the incidents of August 12-13, will put added pressure on the GORM to ensure greater transparency. Despite the logistical challenges imposed by the December 26 natural disaster, the GORM could not delay the elections, Zaki said, or it would surpass the time limit set by the Constitution. He expects Ilyas Ibrahim, the only former detainee to stand for election to the People's Majlis, to win readily. ¶5. (C) Comment: Zaki's mental and physical conditions appear understandably much improved from when the Ambassador visited him during his detention on Dhoonidhoo Island in October (Ref B). His decision to stay on the sidelines during the upcoming elections--and his surprisingly supportive comments about Gayoom--lend credence to the widely held supposition that the GORM worked out a deal with some of the detainees to drop charges in exchange for a more restrained political demeanor. Before the tsunami struck on December 26, the freeness/fairness of the People's Majlis elections were expected to be an important test of Gayoom's resolve to strengthen democracy. The logistical challenges imposed by the greatest natural disaster in Maldivian history can only complicate that test. In the aftermath of the twin crises--the political upheaval in August and the tsunami in December--the GORM will likely seek to portray the elections as a first step in the return to normalcy In this context, the efforts of international, regional and Maldivian observers will play an important role in assessing the transparency of these elections. LUNSTEAD