SRI LANKA: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION QUESTION HEATS UP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001354 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2015 TAGS: PGOV CE SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION QUESTION HEATS UP REF: A. COLOMBO 1318 ¶B. COLOMBO 1216 ¶C. COLOMBO 1160 Classified By: AMBASSADOR JEFFREY J. LUNSTEAD FOR REASONS 1.4(b) and (d ) ¶1. (U) Summary. On August 1, President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga's Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) announced current Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapakse as its presidential candidate and named Anura Bandaranaike (the President's brother),now the Minister for Tourism and Investment Promotion, as the party's nominee for Prime Minister. These announcements arrived in the midst of a controversy over whether the presidential election will be held in 2005 or 2006 (Reftel),leading people to speculate that perhaps the President is resigned to finishing her term this year. On August 2, the President requested an advisory opinion from the Supreme Court as to when the election should take place. In the meantime, the opposition United National Party (UNP) is clamoring for an election this year. Former coalition partner, Marxist Sinhalese nationalist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP),has not announced a candidate, but will still factor in an election's outcome. End summary. ¶2. (C) Many politicians and journalists have interpreted the SLFP's announcement of presidential and prime ministerial candidates Rajapakse and Bandaranaike respectively as an indication that an election is imminent. However, Susil Premajayantha, SLFP Member of Parliament (MP) and Minister for Power and Energy, told poloff that all presidential campaigns begin at least a year in advance, so the party's nominations should not be viewed as a sign that an election will be held this year. Premajayantha said that the SLFP will kick off its campaign in Colombo the first week of September, to coincide with the party's 54th anniversary. He added that the SLFP is in the process of appointing local organizers to mobilize voters. Premajayantha also said the SLFP is meeting with the Muslim parties New Unity Alliance (NUA) and Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) as well as the anti-Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) Eelam People's Democratic Party (EPDP) to discuss coalition-building. ¶3. (C) SLFP MP and Minister for Constitutional Affairs D.E.W. Gunasekara told poloff that the President is seeking the Supreme Court's opinion in order to put an end to the controversy over the election date. He said that all the Supreme Court justices will come together to offer the advisory opinion, and they may invite the Elections Commissioner to testify. Gunasekara was confident that the Elections Commissioner will feel compelled to uphold the Court's position. ¶4. (C) While the SLFP is now preparing for an election either this year or next, the opposition UNP's leader and presidential candidate, Ranil Wickremesinghe, began his campaign in early July. Since the UNP's People's Power March on July 2 (Reftels B and C),the party has been calling for an election this year, and Wickremesinghe told the Ambassador August 2 that the President's request for an opinion from the Court will have no bearing on that demand. He said his party would not file an opinion with the Court, as that would only give credence to the President's request. According to Wickremsinghe, only the Elections Commissioner can call for an election, and the Supreme Court cannot usurp power from the electorate. He added that the UNP will continue its "People Power" rallies and try to force an election this year. ¶5. (C) Voters are permitted to list both a primary and secondary preference in a presidential election, and if no candidate gains more than 50 percent of the vote, the secondary votes are tallied. Both Gunasekera and Wickremesinghe speculated that the JVP might ask its voter base to list a JVP non-starter as a first choice and Rajapakse as a second choice, in essence tipping the scales in Rajapakse's favor. ¶6. (C) Comment: The Sri Lankan political scene is entering uncharted waters that are sure to be choppy. Many had expected an announcement from the Elections Commissioner early, but he will now probably wait for the Supreme Court's opinion before announcing his own. If the Commissioner's decision is different from the Court's, he will be hard pressed to uphold it because the losing party is bound to challenge his decree, and the battle will wind up back in the Supreme Court. Regardless of the decision, the UNP may well take to the streets to try to force an election this year. The UNP strategy is bold... and risky. In asserting he will not abide by a Supreme Court decision of a 2006 election, Wickremesinghe risks being accused of advocating extra-legal and unconstitutional measures. He is also vague about just how his "People Power" strategy will compel an election. And just yeterday, Milinda Moragoda, one of Wickremesinghe's closest advisors, told the Ambassador that a close reading of the Constitution supports the President's case for a 2006 election. What is unknown is Rajapakse's preference-- he might well favor an early (2005) election rather than waiting fifteen months to get out of Kumaratanga's shadow. End comment. LUNSTEAD