CALLS FOR ELECTIONS AS THE UNP MARCHES THROUGH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001216 SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/13/2015 TAGS: PGOV PTER PHUM CE SUBJECT: CALLS FOR ELECTIONS AS THE UNP MARCHES THROUGH COLOMBO WHILE SUPREME COURT WRESTLES WITH P-TOMS REF: A. COLOMBO 1160 ¶B. COLOMBO 1128 Classified By: Amb. J. Lunstead for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (U) As the opposition United National Party (UNP) concluded its 10-day Janbala Meheyuma (People's Power March) to Colombo on July 12, the party focused on pressuring the Commissioner of Elections Dayananda Dissanayake to call for Presidential elections this year (Ref A). Continued silence from Dissanayake has led to across-the-board speculation and confusion as to when a Presidential election is legally mandated. Meanwhile, a three-member bench of the Supreme Court has indicated it will issue its decision on the legality of the Post-Tsunami Operating Mechanical Structure (P-TOMS) on Friday, July 15 in response to a fundamental rights case filed by the Marxist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) party, a decision that is bound to be controversial regardless of its content. END SUMMARY. -------------- MARCH ON COLOMBO -------------- ¶2. (U) An estimated one to two hundred thousand persons joined the peaceful UNP march as it culminated in Colombo on July 12 (Ref A) amidst renewed calls to hold Presidential elections this year. Calling for polls in late 2005, participants in the UNP March also pointed to the soaring cost of living expenses and numerous unfulfilled campaign promises of the current coalition government as other reasons for holding elections this year. (Comment: Surprisingly, the pending P-TOMS issue was not a significant component of the march. End Comment.) -------------- 2005 OR 2006, ONLY TIME WILL TELL -------------- ¶3. (U) The UNP march appeared to be successful, because it kept the spotlight directly on the issue of when the next elections can or must be held. The UNP claims that elections must be held in late 2005. Legal opinion seems divided. (Comment: Former President J.R. Jayawardene apparently set a precedent, when, after calling for and winning early elections in December 1982, he completed his second term in December 1988, six years from the date the early elections were held. End Comment.) Shiral Lakthilaka, Senior Advisor at the Berghof Foundation for Conflict Studies told poloff that the President's second term technically began on February 4, 2000, the inauguration date immediately following the December 1999 elections. As such, Lakthilaka noted, elections must be held in 2005, in order to inaugurate a new president by February 4, 2006. The President's supporters and other constitutional scholars on the other hand, hold that President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga's second term did not start until November 2000, when her first term was initially due to end, thereby making November 2006 the appropriate date for the upcoming polls. ¶4. (C) Former Minister of Justice and Constitutional Affairs and current UNP member of Parliament G.L. Peiris, in a conversation with the Ambassador, admitted for the first time that the Constitution was indeed vague about when elections should be held. Bar Council President Desmond Fernando--a UNP supporter--told the Ambassador he believes the President's term runs until the end of 2006. If the Election Commissioner decides the election must be held this year, a decision must be issued soon, since he is required to call for polls 30 days prior to holding elections, and according to article 31(4) of the constitution, Presidential elections cannot occur less than one month and not more than two months before the expiration of the term. Therefore, if elections are to be held this year, Dissanayake must make a statement to that effect between September 21 and October 21 of this year. -------------- JVP VS. P-TOMS -------------- ¶5. (U) Meanwhile on July 12, a three-member bench of the Supreme Court began hearing the fundamental rights case filed by the JVP on the legality of the P-TOMS agreement (Ref B). According to press reports, the JVP is seeking an injunction on the implementation of P-TOMS with regards to regional committees and regional funds governed by the committees, but not/not against the national committee or district committees. Chief Justice Sarath N. Silva has said the Supreme Court will announce on Friday, July 15, whether it will grant interim relief to the petitioners, which would effectively stall the P-TOMS until a final decision is rendered. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) In a May 2005 conversation with pol FSN, Dissanayake stated that he would not violate the Constitution and that he would call for elections "at the proper time." When that proper time is, however, remains unclear. Observers noting the tenor of the Court arguments so far have told us they believe the Court may grant interim relief. This would not only stall P-TOMS and create a gap where a mechanism needs to be in place to deliver tsunami relief to areas not under government control, but will also make an already unstable political situation even more so. End Comment. LUNSTEAD