SRI LANKA: MONKS, SOME MUSLIMS OPPOSE JOINT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001044 SIPDIS STATE FOR SA/INS LONDON FOR BELL USPACOM FOR FPA E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/09/2015 TAGS: PGOV PTER CE LTTE SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: MONKS, SOME MUSLIMS OPPOSE JOINT MECHANISM; CEASEFIRE VIOLATIONS PERSIST REF: A. COLOMBO 1039 ¶B. COLOMBO 1033 ¶C. USDAO COLOMBO IIR 6 816 0141 05 (NOTAL) ¶D. COLOMBO 0812 Classified By: DCM JAMES F. ENTWISTLE. REASON: 1.4 (B,D). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) The controversy surrounding the proposed "joint mechanism" to coordinate tsunami aid with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) has deepened following unanimous public opposition from the chief prelates of all four Buddhist chapters. At a June 10 press conference, Government alliance partner Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) announced it would give President Chandrika Kumaratunga until midnight June 15 to withdraw support for the mechanism or face a JVP pull-out from her government. The President met with pro-Government Muslim MPs on June 9 in a bid for their support, but the opposition Sri Lanka Muslim Congress is withholding its endorsement. Amid rumors of disaffection within her own Sri Lanka Freedom Party, no other parties, with the exception of the pro-LTTE Tamil National Alliance and the former paramilitary Eelam People's Democratic Party, have come out in public support of the mechanism. The prelates' monolithic opposition--and the moral and religious weight their position carries in this predominantly Buddhist country--will make it increasingly difficult for the President to move ahead with the agreement. Violence continues in the east. Police have taken in two members of an anti-LTTE organization for questioning in connection with the April 28 killing of pro-LTTE journalist Dharmaretnam Sivaram. End summary. -------------- ANTI-MECHANISM MOVES -------------- ¶2. (U) On June 9 the chief prelates of the four Buddhist chapters in Sri Lanka issued a joint public statement against the proposed "joint mechanism" on tsunami aid with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). Citing the rapidly deteriorating condition of the hunger-striking Ven. Omalpe Sobitha Thero, a Buddhist monk and Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) MP (Ref B),the four head monks (or "Mahanayakes") urged President Chandrika Kumaratunga to issue a definitive statement pledging not to sign the mechanism. Absent such a statement, the Mahanayakes threatened her with an "edict" calling the entire Buddhist Sangha and laity together in a mass convocation against the mechanism. ¶3. (U) On June 10 the Patriotic National Movement, a front for the Sinhalese nationalist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP),organized an anti-mechanism march in Colombo; the JVP is scheduled for a June 14 rally with the same theme. At a June 10 press conference, JVP Leader Somawansa Amarasinghe announced that his party would leave the government on June 16 if the President had not publicly withdrawn support for the mechanism by midnight June 15. Echoing earlier complaints (Ref B),the JVP leader criticized the President for keeping the mechanism text hidden from everyone except a few members of her coterie. Amarasinghe also called on the opposition United National Party (UNP) to make its position on the mechanism public. -------------- MUSLIMS SPLIT -------------- ¶4. (C) On June 9 President Kumaratunga met with Muslim MPs who support the government to enlist their support for the joint mechanism. According to sources in the Presidential Secretariat, the Muslim MPs indicated possible support for SIPDIS the mechanism subject to some modifications--e.g., that a Muslim representative, in addition to the Government and LTTE, also sign the agreement and that Muslims be given representation equal to that of the Tigers in regional-level committees. The President reportedly promised to have a response to that request by June 17, after consulting the Norwegians. (Note: See Ref A on Ambassador's June 9 meeting with the President.) The President has not briefed the opposition Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) on the joint mechanism and has not approached SLMC Leader Rauff Hakeem for support, according to Shafeek Rajabdeen, Colombo District Organizer for the SLMC. Instead, the President "is trying to ignore us," he complained, and "Hakeem has been totally sidelined in the discussions." Since Muslims were the population most heavily affected by the tsunami in the east, any discussion of a joint mechanism on tsunami aid ought to include them, Rajabdeen asserted. While the mechanism might be a good idea in principle, Rajabdeen concluded, the SLMC cannot support it at this time because the party leadership does not know what is in the document. (Note: Three of the seven SLMC MPs who won seats in the 2004 election have crossed the aisle to join the government.) -------------- OUTSIDERS BETTING AGAINST PRESIDENT SIGNING -------------- ¶5. (C) On June 9 UNP MP Navin Dissanayake told poloff that he doubts Kumaratunga will actually sign the controversial agreement, given the staunch opposition voiced by the Mahanayakes and purported dissension within the ranks of her own Sri Lanka Freedom Party (Ref B). Instead, he theorized, she will likely stand down and try to put the best face on her reversal by claiming she remains committed to the principle of a joint mechanism but was prevented by JVP opposition from realizing these principles. Father A.I. Bernard, a Catholic priest in Jaffna who maintains contact with the LTTE, said that the prevailing view up north is skeptical that the President will sign. Jaffna spectators believe the "President is losing her grip" on the government, thanks in large part to JVP agitation--agitation that the JVP can be expected to continue "until they come to the top." Noting press reports that the President might be considering some modifications to the text of the agreement, Fr. Bernard said he doubted the LTTE would accept such tinkering at this late date. Tamils in the north were "losing trust" and felt there was "no point in hoping anymore" for an improvement in their situation for three reasons: the lack of leadership in the south; the lack of unity in the south; and ethnically divisive pronouncements by the JVP and the JHU, he asserted. "Attitudes are hardening" everywhere, he concluded glumly, adding that the country seemed to be heading toward a resumption of hostilities. -------------- MORE VIOLENCE; TWO ARRESTS -------------- ¶6. (SBU) On June 8 police apprehended two members of the anti-LTTE People's Liberation Organization of Tamil Eelam (PLOTE) for questioning in the April 28 killing of pro-LTTE journalist Dharmaretnam Sivaram (Ref D). Public Security Secretary Tilak Ranaviraja confirmed the arrests to us on SIPDIS June 9. (Note: Sivaram was originally a member of the anti-LTTE paramilitary PLOTE. Under the Ceasefire Agreement, non-LTTE Tamil paramilitaries were supposed to have been disarmed. PLOTE's numbers--and thus its activities--have diminished over the past 10 years. End note.) ¶7. (SBU) While there has been a visible increase in Sri Lanka Army personnel on Colombo streets over the past few days, violence persists in the east. On June 8 two LTTE cadres were killed in a mine explosion in Ampara District two km from a Sri Lanka Army checkpoint. The LTTE's Batticaloa-Ampara political wing blamed the attack on the Special Task Force (STF) and unidentified "paramilitary cadres" allegedly working with the STF and lodged a complaint with the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission. The STF denied the allegation the following day, claiming instead the two LTTE cadres had been shot by a disgruntled former comrade-in-arms. Government forces and the LTTE also traded accusations over the June 9 killing of a civilian bystander in Batticaloa when shots were fired at an anti-LTTE Eelam People's Democratic Party (EPDP) member and his military escort. The Defense Ministry reported that suspected LTTE gunmen killed the civilian after they opened fire on the EPDP entourage, also wounding one EPDP member and an Army corporal escorting him, while the LTTE claimed the 45-year-old trishaw driver was killed when the Sri Lanka Army returned fire. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) If the President faced an uphill struggle before, the Mahanayakes' unanimous disapproval of the mechanism--and the threat of a Buddhist edict to quash it--now makes the battle seem almost unwinnable. The Mahanayakes' intervention has moved the issue out of the purely political realm, giving it moral and religious implications as well. With only the pro-LTTE Tamil National Alliance (TNA) and the dubious paramilitary-cum-party EPDP expressing open support for the mechanism so far (and, with the Mahanayakes' thumbs-down, the tacit disapproval of over 70 percent of the population),it is becoming increasingly difficult for the President to claim she has a mandate to move forward on the mechanism. LUNSTEAD