CHAVEZ-URIBE MEETING STILL PENDING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 000471

SIPDIS

NSC FOR CBARTON
HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/2014
TAGS: PREL PTER VE
SUBJECT: CHAVEZ-URIBE MEETING STILL PENDING

Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ABELARDO A. ARIAS FOR 1.4 (D)

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Summary
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1. (C) Summary: The dispute between Venezuela and
Colombia over the capture of senior FARC official Rodrigo
Granda remains on hold after Colombian President Alvaro
Uribe's postponement of the February 3 scheduled meetings.
Venezuelan press, distracted by a holiday weekend and
destructive local weather, has all but dropped the Granda
issue but will likely devote attention to it again as the
February 15 date for a new meeting approaches. In a series
of communiques, Caracas tempered its anti-Colombian rhetoric
and Bogota appeared to accede to one of President Hugo
Chavez's demands--a pledge that such events would not
reoccur. While Uribe has declared the matter resolved,
Chavez has contradicted himself over whether a meeting with
Uribe was still necessary to settle final issues. Chavez
appears to be trying to put the issue behind him, but his
administration's aggressive, impertinent diplomacy coupled
with GOV elements' support for illegal armed groups will
ensure that clashes between the two countries continue to
arise. End summary.


2. (U) Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez had planned to host
Colombian President Alvaro Uribe in Caracas February 3 to
resolve the crisis surrounding the capture of FARC leader
Rodrigo Granda in Caracas. Information Minister Andres
Izarra announced publicly that Uribe was not coming because
he was sick. The meeting was postponed until the following
day, and is now scheduled for February 15, according to
Izarra.

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Communiques and Spin
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3. (U) Prior to February 3, Venezuela and Colombia issued
communiques referring to each other as "brother" and "sister"
countries. Venezuela's statement on January 26 shifted the
blame for the dispute entirely onto the United States;
indeed, it did not refer to Colombia except to assert that
the country was mature enough to solve its own problems. In
a rhetorical shift from Colombian Foreign Minister Carolina
Barco's statement January 27 that there would be "no
apologies," Colombia on January 28 expressed an intention to
investigate the facts of the matter and pledged that any
events Venezuela found objectionable would not happen again.
The communique concluded by noting the Venezuelan government
had approved of the statement and thus declared the crisis
"settled." The Venezuelan Foreign Ministry followed with a
communique on January 29 hailing the Colombian statement as a
"positive gesture," rejecting the presence of armed groups in
Venezuela, and expressing its willingness to overcome the
crisis in a meeting between presidents.


4. (U) At the time the statements were issued, Uribe in
public began describing the crisis as having been resolved.
Chavez called the Colombian communique a "rectification." He
demanded from Colombia what the statement had already
promised; that is, he "insisted" that Bogota investigate and
ensure that such actions would not be repeated, according to
the pro-Chavez press. Nonetheless, he issued contradictory
public statements over whether the conflict would be resolved
without a meeting of the two chiefs of state.

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Ambassadors Back to Work
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5. (U) Chavez sent Venezuelan Ambassador to Colombia Carlos
Rodolfo Santiago, whom he had recalled because of the Granda
capture, back to Bogota January 31. On 3 February, Chavez
finally allowed Colombian Ambassador to Venezuela Enrique
Vargas Ramirez to present his credentials after leaving him
hanging since October. Chavez had canceled plans to accept
Vargas's credentials February 2, commemorating instead the
anniversary of his 1992 coup attempt.

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Additional Arbiters
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6. (U) Before Chavez and Uribe decided to meet, third
parties continued to mediate the dispute. The press reported
on 28 January that Cuban leader Fidel Castro had been calling
Uribe and Chavez to try to resolve the crisis. President of
the Dominican Republic Leonel Fernandez also had been
discussing the matter with both parties, and Chile, Spain,
and Guatemala joined the list of countries offering their
services of arbitration, according to press reports.
Brazil's President Lula da Silva, who was involved almost
from the beginning, urged the two leaders "not to fight over
secondary matters." In a more diplomatic tone than that used
by the GOV, Andean Community of Nations secretary general
Allan Wagner recommended that the United States not involve
itself in the dispute.

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Comment
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7. (C) The Chavez administration is adept at inventing
crises to distract the public from its failures. This time,
mother nature provided a ready-made solution: the Venezuelan
press has all but forgotten the Granda affair after the
four-day Carnival weekend and unseasonable rains triggering
floods and landslides along the country's coastal mountains.
Chavez appears to be maneuvering for a face-saving exit on
the Granda case nonetheless. His public remarks, demanding
what Colombia has already offered, sound tough to Venezuelans
unfamiliar with the details of the dispute. He walked
himself into a box by asserting that the crisis was not
resolved until the presidential meeting, only to have Uribe
postpone the meeting 12 days due to health.
Venezuela-Colombia tensions do not end with the resolution of
the Granda crisis. (On January 26, Venezuelan Attorney
General Isaias Rodriguez said he was considering requesting
the extradition of Colombian Defense Minister Jorge Uribe.)
Nor have the FARC and ELN vacated Venezuelan territory or
curtailed their relationship with the GOV. But the publicity
given to their presence by the Granda case, and the
dissuasive value of his involuntary departure from Venezuela,
may get them to lower their profile for a while.
Brownfield