AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH OAS MISSION LEADER PERINA

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002388 SIPDIS NSC FOR CBARTON HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2015 TAGS: PGOV PREL VE SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH OAS MISSION LEADER PERINA Classified By: ACTING DEPUTY CHIEF OF MISSION JOHN S. CREAMER FOR 1.4 ( D) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Ambassador met with OAS mission head Ruben Perina and local OAS Representative Patricio Carbacho Thursday, August 4 to emphasize USG concerns that the OAS and European Union coordinate their strategies to ensure a credible international observation of the legislative elections in December. Perina took on board the Ambassador's comments, but expressed concern that the OAS might find itself in a difficult position if the National Electoral Council (CNE) was more favorable toward the OAS' proposal than that of the EU. Carbacho thought coordination would be easier to achieve if it occurred at the EU Secretariat and OAS Secretary General level. Post believes follow up discussions with Perina and the Secretary General's office in Washington is also necessary. End summary. ¶2. (C) Ambassador met with OAS Mission head Ruben Perina and OAS resident Representative Patricio Carbacho, Thursday August 4. Perina, who led the OAS' observer mission during the 2000 elections, is in Caracas to explore prospects for launching an OAS electoral observer mission for the legislative elections is December. Carbacho has been OAS representative in Venezuela for 13 years and has watched the decline of the electoral system over the past five years. ¶3. (C) The Ambassador said the near certainty of an overwhelming ruling party victory in the December elections made it necessary for any observation effort to focus on ensuring a transparent electoral process. The only way for this to occur would be for an international observation mission deemed credible by opposition and government supporters to oversee electoral preparations and implementation. The Ambassador stressed that the observers must have at a minimum open access to all CNE offices, the right to name all members of their observation mission, and the right to publicly comment and publish reports on the process without CNE interference. Absent this, the Ambassador suggested the best option would be to refuse to observe lest the organization be taken advantage of, lose opposition confidence, and polarize the already tense political system even more. He said the CNE is currently refusing to grant the EU these essential rights. Given the history of the OAS' observation of the 2004 recall referendum, it would damage the OAS' credibility if it agreed to observe the December elections and the EU refused due to CNE instransigence. On this issue, perception might be more important than reality. ¶4. (C) The Ambassador thought the European Union and OAS were in a strong position to demand these assurances since President Chavez expects to win easily in December and was eager to have the elections blessed by the international community. The Ambassador urged Perina to coordinate his negotiation strategy and observation proposal with the EU to maximize both organizations' bargaining leverage with the CNE. While recognizing that time was running out for negotiating with the CNE, the Ambassador emphasized that consultations were important to preserve the integrity of future international observation. (Note: The EU will present its last proposal to the CNE next week after the OAS delegation departs.) ¶5. (C) Perina accepted the Ambassador's advice, noting that OAS SYG Insulza had instructed him to work closely with the EU. Perina said he was aware of the problems that occurred between the OAS and CNE during last year's recall referendum and vowed not to compromise on any of the conditions in the proposal (which is the OAS-GOV observation agreement for the 2000 elections) he planned to present to the CNE on Friday. He also said he had seen a copy of the EU proposal and thought that it coincided with the OAS position and the minimum conditions raised by the Ambassador. Still, Perina was concerned the EU might be more demanding in its negotiations than the OAS, which would have to answer to its member countries in the region if it was perceived to be too strict. He also worried that the CNE might accept the OAS' conditions but reject the EU's proposal, leaving the OAS in a difficult position. Perina said the OAS would need an invitation from the CNE by the beginning of September to have enough time to mount a credible observation effort. The EU will also need an agreement by that date. ¶6. (C) Carbacho suggested that the EU Secretariat contact Secretary General Insulza to propose a coordinated strategy. SIPDIS Perina said that despite Insulza's interest in cooperating with the EU, he could not originate the proposal without appearing biased against the GOV and provoking regional criticism. The Ambassador volunteered to raise that prospect with Washington to facilitate the dialogue. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) We impressed upon Perina and Carbacho the CNE's intention and ability to co-opt any international observers it can to validate its biased and skewed electoral system. The CNE is part of the problem, not the solution. As shown by its treatment of the EU's draft, the CNE is unlikey to accept all the OAS observation conditions. We believe it would be a mistake for the OAS to observe the elections if the EU refuses to due so because of the CNE's insistence on unacceptable conditions. If the OAS does so, it will reinforce the local perception that the OAS is incapable of resisting GOV pressure. Perina appears to be aware of the CNE's wiles and of the need to work with the EU, but he seems unsure on how to proceed. We urge the Department to meet with OAS SYG Insulza to reiterate the need for the OAS to stand firm with the EU in the face of GOV pressure. In addition, we ask that the Department meet with the appropriate EU representatives to encourage them to coordinate closely with the OAS on the observation conditions and on their subsequent implementation. We will nudge the EU reps down here in the same direction. Brownfield NNNN 2005CARACA02388 - CONFIDENTIAL