VENEZUELA GEARS UP FOR MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002385 SIPDIS NSC FOR CBARTON HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2015 TAGS: PGOV VE SUBJECT: VENEZUELA GEARS UP FOR MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS REF: CARACAS 02201 Classified By: ACTING DEPUTY CHIEF OF MISSION JOHN S. CREAMER FOR 1.4 (D) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) This Sunday Venezuelans will go to the polls to elect the equivalent of city and neighborhood councils. The outcome is not in doubt-- Chavez' ruling coalition is expected to do at least as well as it did in the regional elections last October when it won all but two governorships and a majority of mayorships. Opposition parties- still reeling from last year's electoral defeats- have struggled to mount an effective campaign with many smaller parties and NGOs calling for voters to abstain. The GOV has countered with a get out the vote effort based on the claim that the abstention call is a US-opposition plot to delegitimize the GOV and destabilize the regime. With voter apathy toward local elections traditionally high- more than 70 percent of registered voters have not turned out in recent local elections- it will be difficult to distinguish between voter indifference and those abstaining for political reasons. ¶2. (C) With the GOV's victory assured, attention is focused on the pro-GOV bias of the National Electoral Council (CNE) and the extent to which its actions favoring the GOV will set a precedent for the legislative elections this December when all 165 seats in the National Assembly will be up for grabs. Leading electoral NGO Sumate has sharply criticized the CNE for not meeting five basic conditions for a free and fair vote. These are: a reliable electoral registry, a guaranteed secret vote, independently audited voting software, a manual vote count, and credible international electoral observation. CNE President Jorge Rodriguez says more than 100 foreign officials/individuals will observe the elections, but none of the credible international electoral observer, such as the EU or OAS, will observe. End summary. ¶3. (U) Approximately 45,000 people are running for almost 6,000 seats on the equivalent of city and neighborhood councils. In addition, the voters in Amazonas will elect their governor. Polls are scheduled to open around 6 am and keep their lines open until 4 pm. The CNE is predicting it will have preliminary results later that evening. The Embassy will deploy several teams around Caracas to monitor voting. A 20 meter sink hole on the main road out of Caracas and security concerns on alternative routes prevent us from going outside of the capital, but we will monitor voting in a representative number of pro-government and opposition neighborhoods. -------------- Most Opposition Parties Participating -------------- ¶4. (C) The mainstream political opposition is participating in the elections in hopes of preserving some political space, despite their reservations about the electoral system as well as their expectation of a sound defeat. Major parties such as Accion Democratica (AD),COPEI, Movement toward Socialism (MAS),and Primera Justica (PJ),for example, are running candidates in all states. Their leaders are billing participation as a way to defend one's right to vote and to bring irregular1ies in the electoral system to light. MAS leader Felipe Mujica told Acting DCM that the opposition is considering releasing a five point statement Saturday to encourage their supporters to vote while vowing to fight together to correct problems in the CNE. Meanwhile, smaller parties such as Alianza Bravo Pueblo (ABP), Izquierda Democratica, and Gente de Petroleo are calling for people to abstain to protest the compromised CNE and to deny the vote legitimacy. These pro-abstention groups marched July 30 for transparency in the electoral system. The march ended with minor violence when the Metropolitan Police intervened to prevent a clash between protesters and pro-Chavez Tupamaro members waiting in front of the CNE. In Zulia State, several candidates from these smaller parties withdrew from the race protesting the CNE's failure to address opposition concerns. According to one Embassy contact, candidates in other states will do the same before Friday. -------------- Government Determined to Get Out the Vote -------------- ¶5. (C) The government is doing all it can to boost voter turnout. President Chavez is calling those who support abstention coupists and National Electoral Council (CNE) President Jorge Rodriguez has threatened to file charges against anyone openly advocating such a practice. MVR officials are urging a large turnout to thwart an alleged US-Sumate plot to delegitimize the GOV through an abstention campaign. According to daily El Nacional, the MVR has developed "Operation Gallop," an old AD plan for bussing people to the polls. Embassy contacts say this election is seen as yet another opportunity for MVR party leaders, governors, and mayors to show their mobilization skills. The MVR is reportedly offering 3 meals and 90,000 bolivars (approximately USD 45) to vote. The MVR will even supply umbrellas in case of rain. -------------- CNE Continues to Play Favorites -------------- ¶6. (C) The legacy of last year's referendum, the CNE's unwillingness to communicate with the opposition, and its approval of a number of controversial decisions continues to generate distrust in the process. Copei leader Enrique Naime and PJ representative Juan Carlos Caldera told poloffs the CNE has canceled several meetings with the opposition and has not responded to opposition inquiries or kept them well-informed about preparations for the vote. In contrast, the CNE has continuously supplied the MVR with information and allowed candidates from a new, pro-Chavez party to run even though the party has not been recognized. ¶7. (C) Sumate, which has led the opposition's call for changes in the electoral system, has summarized its concerns into five basic conditions for a free and fair election. First Sumate is calling for an independent audit of the electoral registry, which has not been reviewed since the government's Mision Identidad program registered almost three million new voters in the run up to last year's referendum. The voter rolls the CNE distributed to political parties in the run up to this Sunday's election did not contain enough information for the parties to do their own review. (Note: By law and tradition it is supposed to.) CAPEL will do a study of the REP, but it will not be a full, independent audit as CAPEL will rely on information supplied by the CNE and will not look at Onidex, the office in charge of issuing national identity cards (cedulas) (Ref A). (Note: As of August 3, CAPEL has not arrived. An NDI official told poloff the CNE had not paid CAPEL; a newspaper and Caldera have said CAPEL is waiting for the CNE to determine political party and NGO participation in the study.) ¶8. (C) Sumate is also concerned about the electronic notebooks the CNE plans to test in Cojedes and Nueva Esparta states to record the signature and thumbprint of each voter. These notebooks are theoretically an anti-fraud device, but there is suspicion that the government will be able to cross-reference the information with the sequence of votes cast to determine how each person voted. In addition, the CNE has not allowed political parties or NGOs to independently review the software used in the voting machines as it did before last year's referendum. Instead, the CNE held a demonstration at the Simon Bolivar University. The opposition is also calling for a manual vote count of each ballot box in accordance with the electoral law and qualified international observers to monitor the vote. -------------- Abstention -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Abstention, due to disinterest, has traditionally been high for these elections and is unlikely to be significantly influenced by opposition or government efforts. According to CNE statistics for the first exclusive election for these posts in 2000, abstention was over 75 percent. While dissatisfaction with the CNE may encourage some not to vote, it will be difficult to differentiate these voters from the apathetic. PJ Secretary General Gerardo Blyde told us August 5 that he expects only 25-30 percent of registered voters to go to the polls. -------------- Comment: Expect a Bumpy Road to December -------------- ¶10. (C) The preparation for Sunday's elections offers little prospect that the electoral process for legislative elections in December will be either fair or transparent. The CNE continues to blatantly favor the government. Unless the CNE decides to be more open in its dealings with the public and the opposition, distrust will grow and will impact voter participation at a time when the opposition will need its supporters the most. CAPEL's delayed arrival means the audit of the electoral registry will probably not be complete before November, allowing little time for the CNE to implement changes even if board members wanted to. We understand that the CNE's changes to the European Union's proposal to observe the December elections were unacceptable, and the EU may walk if its minimum conditions are not met (septel). Brownfield NNNN 2005CARACA02385 - CONFIDENTIAL