CAPEL TO AUDIT VENEZUELA'S ELECTORAL REGISTER

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002201

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
HQ SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/11/2015
TAGS: PREL KDEM VE
SUBJECT: CAPEL TO AUDIT VENEZUELA'S ELECTORAL REGISTER

Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, for
reason 1.4 (d)


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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Venezuela's National Electoral Council (CNE)
commissioned the Costa Rica-based Center for Electoral
Promotion and Assistance (CAPEL) in late June to perform an
audit of the Electoral Register. The CNE is relying on
CAPEL, an organization affiliated with the Inter-American
Institute of Human Rights, to declare the Electoral Register
legitimate and transparent. Opponents of President Hugo
Chavez, including the NGO Sumate, have questioned CAPEL's
independence from the CNE and the methodology and extent of
its audit. The CNE is also attempting to incorporate
national election observation network OJO Electoral in the
audit of the Electoral Register, while Sumate presses its
campaign of individual challenges of irregularities in the
Register. End Summary.

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CAPEL AUDIT AND METHODOLOGY
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2. (C) An organization affiliated with the Inter-American
Institute of Human Rights, the Costa Rica-based Center for
Electoral Promotion and Assistance (CAPEL) provides technical
assistance to electoral bodies in the hemisphere. CAPEL
submitted the proposal for an audit of Venezuela's Electoral
Register in late June, and Venezuela's National Electoral
Council (CNE) accepted the proposal to sign what "appears to
be" a multimillion dollar contract, according to OJO
Electoral report given to PolCouns. To perform the audit,
CAPEL will rely primarily on CNE officials, expertise and
access. CAPEL has privately submitted the technical plan of
the audit to the CNE. Scheduled to begin in late August and
finish at the end of September, the six-week audit will have
two parts. First, CAPEL will conduct interviews throughout
the country. Next, the voter base will be audited for the
deceased, prisoners, and people with other irregularities.
The sample will consist of 1% of the electoral base, which
corresponds to over 70,000 people. The results of the audit
will include suggested reforms for the CNE to improve the
electoral system.

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METHODOLOGY AND CRITICISM OF THE AUDIT
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3. (C) Opposition leaders have criticized CAPEL for its
direct connection to the CNE. Sumate spokespersons have
called CAPEL an agent of the CNE, arguing that its audit
should not be a substitute for a public audit, according to
press. They argue that the CNE must still release a complete
Electoral Register so that public groups can perform external
audits. The opposition has urged CAPEL to make its results
public, but CAPEL has refused to submit them to anyone but
the CNE, which has agreed that it will release them later to
the public.


4. (C) Opposition leaders emphasize the need for CAPEL to
not audit merely the Register, but also the Department of
Immigration (Onidex),in particular by investigating its
issuance of identity documents to millions in 2004 through
Chavez' "Identity Mission." (Note: According to the
technical proposal for the audit given to PolCouns, though it
has not yet been made public, CAPEL will audit Onidex's
issuance of identity documents through the Identity Mission.)
Critics of the plan to audit 1% of the voter base call for a
3-5% sample, which CAPEL says is unfeasible. National
Democratic Institute (NDI) contacts told Poloff that the CNE
will have an incentive to implement some of the reforms the
CAPEL audit produces, if no more than to create a more
favorable public and international image. Even with a
late-September release date, NDI said that significant
reforms probably will not be implemented before the December
legislative elections.


5. (U) The Organic Law of Suffrage and Political
Participation (LOSPP) requires the CNE to release the
Register to political parties or other groups at their
request. The opposition claims the CNE has failed to release
the complete Electoral Register because it lacks voter
addresses and dates of birth. They argue the CNE has
released only names and identity card numbers, even though
the LOSPP states that the Register should also include dates
of birth, residences, and voting center information.

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ROLE OF THE OJO
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6. (C) In an attempt to counter criticism, the CNE has
announced it is developing roles for political parties and
NGOs to play in the CAPEL audit. On 15 June, domestic
observation group OJO Electoral accepted the CNE's offer to
perform a particular role in the CAPEL audit. OJO plans to
use the opportunity to build its national observation network
in preparation for subsequent elections. The group will
perform a special study of the Electoral Register, which will
be complementary to the CAPEL audit. OJO has negotiated with
the CNE to access the whole Electoral Register database. If
access is blocked at any point, OJO plans to walk away from
the process, according to OJO report given to PolCouns. OJO
will use NDI for "back-up" technical assistance.

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COMMENT
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7. (C) The CNE is probably wagering that the results of
CAPEL's audit will make their guarantee of transparency in
future elections appear legitimate. However, the CAPEL audit
will offer too little, too late. The audit will not be
complete by the August 7 elections. By the time any
meaningful reforms are implemented, by 2006 presidential
elections at best, they are not likely to be of any value to
Chavez's competitors. With a 4-1 majority of pro-GOV
rectors, the CNE has been a means for the GOV to increase its
control over the electoral system. Although CAPEL has
reported no problems receiving the necessary information, its
reliance on the Pro-Chavez CNE, its prohibiiton from
publicizing results, and its long timeline for completing the
project will not convince the anti-Chavez part of the
electorate to expect fair elections.
Brownfield


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2005CARACA02201 - CONFIDENTIAL