VENEZUELAN MILITARY DOCTRINE STILL EVOLVING

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002088

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR VE
SUBJECT: VENEZUELAN MILITARY DOCTRINE STILL EVOLVING


Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ABELARDO A. ARIAS FOR 1.4 (D)


1. (C) Summary. The July 5 deadline President Hugo Chavez
gave the Venezuelan Armed Forces to present its new doctrine
has passed unfulfilled. Notwithstanding, the GOV has begun
trying to prepare for "asymmetrical warfare"--and the
strategy's chief corollary, the establishment of a civilian
reserve force--as the National Assembly scrambles to provide
the doctrine legal foundation in the Organic Law of the
National Armed Forces before its recess begins August 15.
The National Assembly has added to the bill the creation of a
"territorial guard," an ill-defined counterpart to the
reserves, which Chavez mentioned in an early June television
broadcast. The GOV has had some success recruiting reserves,
but numbers fall well short of the hundreds of thousands
Chavez says have joined. The reserves will remain a loosely
organized force as the GOV and military struggles to
anticipate Chavez's wishes and to interpret his plan for a
new military doctrine. End summary.


2. (U) July 5, Venezuela's independence day, passed without
the planned unveiling of Venezuela's new military doctrine.
The doctrine will remain unofficial until Chavez signs off on
the draft, which he sent back to the military for revision,
new Defense Minister Orlando Maniglia told reporters. The
doctrine has not yet been codified in the Organic Law of the
National Armed Forces, either. The law cleared the defense
committee July 5 after two readings and now goes back to the
plenary chamber, according to press reports. Opposition
deputy Pedro Castillo said the pro-Chavez bloc, under
pressure to pass the law quickly, agreed to an opposition
request that articles relating to personnel matters be placed
in another law, according to press reports.


3. (C) In the meantime, the Venezuelan armed forces have
been busy defining and preparing for "asymmetric warfare"
since President Hugo Chavez announced the doctrinal shift in
December 2004. According to DAO reporting, the armed forces
have held several conferences to plot strategies for war
against an overwhelming conventional force such as the US
military. A columnist in a major opposition-leaning daily
newspaper released an alleged Venezuelan military plan for
asymmetrical warfare in which a hypothetical "Goliath"
country gathered a coalition of states to get the OAS to
approve an invasion of "David." DAO and press reports also
note that the military has conducted various maneuvers and
exercises to prepare for guerrilla warfare. Some exercises
have involved members of the new reserve force; 40 PDVSA
reservists participated in an antiaircraft artillery
demonstration June 9.

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Reserves of the Reserves
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4. (U) Venezuelan National Assembly deputies working on the
draft organic law outlined the creation of a "territorial
guard," which aims to involve all Venezuelan citizens,
according to July 7 press reports. Chavez raised the issue
of the territorial guard during his June 5 "Alo Presidente"
broadcast, characterizing the force as the nation's third
line of defense after the active duty military and the
reserves. Pro-Chavez defense committee chairman Eddis Rios
(MVR) defined the territorial guard as a "complement" to the
reserves. Comparing the group to the anti-Nazi underground
and the "Iraqi people," another pro-Chavez legislator
described the territorial guard as a network of Venezuelans
operating secretly from their homes to fight an invading
force. The guard would receive "guidance" and "instruction
in conversations" rather than military training, according to
the deputy.

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Reserve Recruitment
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5. (C) The GOV, offering modest payments and free lunches,
does not appear to be having difficulty recruiting reserves.
Pollster Alfredo Keller told poloff 29 June that one-third of
the Chavez supporters interviewed said they were prepared to
join the reserves to fight the United States. Some community
leaders are supplementing the military's recruitment efforts
by drumming up support for the reserves on an ad-hoc basis.


For example, the head of a pro-Chavez collective in Aragua
State, claiming to have over 800 volunteers, called on locals
to come out and train as reserves in mid-April. Members of
GOV social missions are also enlisting in the reserve effort,
according to press reports.


6. (U) Chavez, however, has wildly exaggerated the number
of Venezuelan reserves. Boasting to "Alo Presidente"
listeners July 3 that the US would regret any invasion of
Venezuela "for 500 years," Chavez claimed his reserve force
was already approaching 500,000 members while the United
States had resorted to drafting civilians to support its Iraq
mission. Chavez then alleged--without explaining the
discrepancy--that two million Venezuelans had registered as
reservists. He added July 3 that each reservist would have
his own weapon, and no invader would be able to resist such a
force "armed to the teeth." Other GOV reports show the
actual numbers of reserves are much lower. Reserve commander
Maj. Gen. Julio Quintero Viloria announced June 9 that over
50,000 reserves would be trained during the second half of
2005, according to press reports. Navy commander Vice
Admiral Armando Laguna Laguna told the press in late April
the Navy currently had only 2,500 reservists.

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Opposition Keeps Complaining
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7. (U) Opponents of President Chavez continued to criticize
the reserves primarily as a sinister force organized to keep
the active duty military loyal to Chavez and to intimidate
Chavez's opponents. An anti-Chavez daily argued in early
June the most disturbing aspect of the draft law for GOV
critics was that it placed reserves in charge of garrisons
and active duty units during emergencies. Social Christian
party (COPEI) secretary general Cesar Perez Vivas told
reporters he expected the reserves would be used to break up
street protests, noting that some reservists marching in the
July 5 independence day parade carried riot gear.

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Comment
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8. (U) The military and local leaders have begun trying to
implement the new doctrine while the National Assembly is
still drafting its legal framework. All institutions
involved are muddling through their attempts to define
Chavez's vague plan. For example, the National Assembly's
use of fudge words like "guidance" and "instruction" instead
of "training" shows legislators have not fully thought out
the territorial guard concept. Without clear direction, the
reserve force is becoming a confusing mix of former military
personnel and civilians trained either by other Chavez
supporters or by soldiers whose social mission has become
more important than their own military preparedness.
Brownfield


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2005CARACA02088 - CONFIDENTIAL