ACCION DEMOCRATICA: LOOKING FOR VOTES IN ALL THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 001011 SIPDIS NSC FOR CBARTON HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/2014 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL VE SUBJECT: ACCION DEMOCRATICA: LOOKING FOR VOTES IN ALL THE WRONG PLACES Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ABELARDO A. ARIAS FOR 1.4 (D) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Accion Democratica (AD),Venezuela's largest opposition party, lacks a credible strategy to confront the administration of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. AD does not appear to be either revising its platform or attempting to build coalitions with other parties. Instead, the party is appealing to governments and political parties abroad, banking that they will help it confront Chavez. AD fears that other parties may eclipse it, and this in turn conditions its approach towards Chavez. The party is suffering from internal strains over disagreements with the party leadership such as whether to boycott this year's municipal and National Assembly elections. AD, which is the only opposition party with a link on the electoral council (CNE),is likely to compete in upcoming elections, if only to keep from losing a place in national politics that is largely dependent on its foothold as one of Venezuela's historic political parties. End summary. -------------- Short on Strategy -------------- ¶2. (C) Venezuelan opposition party Accion Democratica (AD) is doing little to prepare for municipal and National Assembly elections scheduled for August and December, respectively. Since President Hugo Chavez's administration hammered the opposition in the October 31 regional elections, AD has failed to rethink its public platform. Party first vice president Victor Bolivar complained to poloff February 22 that Chavez's economic policies were unsustainable. Asked, however, how the party could communicate such failures to the public, Bolivar merely resumed his criticism. Efforts to engage former party president Carlos Canache March 22 also fell flat; Canache could only suggest that AD's national platform endorse freedom and democracy. Alfredo Coronil, AD's international affairs secretary, pointed to a June party congress (originally scheduled for February but postponed several times) that would review AD's doctrine. -------------- We Can At Least Win a State -------------- ¶3. (C) A member of AD's national secretariat of professionals told poloff the party would focus on winning the gubernatorial elections in sparsely populated Amazonas State, which will take place along with the municipal elections August 7. Winning the state, he said, would carry the party into the National Assembly elections with momentum. Party officials told poloff that their candidate, AD secretary of organization Bernabe Gutierrez, had a good shot SIPDIS at winning. (Note: Press reports from 1998 describe Gutierrez, a former Amazonas governor, as a corrupt official who shamelessly used state funds in his reelection campaign. The National Electoral Council forced Gutierrez, facing charges of election fraud, to step down in 2000 after a vote recount.) -------------- Who Needs Allies? -------------- ¶4. (C) AD has not sought alliances with other parties. Canache said that neither AD nor any other important opposition parties were joining forces. AD secretary general Henry Ramos Allup fumed at an internal party meeting in November that other opposition parties had nothing to offer AD, which he claimed was the only party able to siphon votes from Chavez's Fifth Republic Movement (MVR) party. Echoing comments from other opposition parties, Coronil said that his party was "talking" with other groups, but he did not predict the formation of any new coalitions. -------------- Won't You Please, Please Help Us -------------- ¶5. (C) Most AD officials appear to believe that reaching out to sympathetic governments and parties abroad should be the party's main focus. According to press, party president Jesus Mendez Quijada listed disseminating among the international community an alternative view of Venezuela's political situation as one of two party goals. Bolivar, describing AD as the opposition's only hope, made a direct pitch to poloff in February for USG resources to help AD confront the Chavez administration. An alternate deputy to the National Assembly also protested to poloff that AD was facing having to drop out of the Socialist International movement because it could not afford its membership dues, while the MVR planned to join with the support of some European political parties. AD did not participate in a meeting with Spanish President Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero March 30 (SEPTEL),reportedly because AD leaders felt that the party's historic ties with the Socialist International and Zapatero's Socialist Worker's Party warranted a separate session. -------------- Internal Discord -------------- ¶6. (C) Disagreement over whether to participate in upcoming elections has created tension among the AD faithful. Former party president Canache and former secretary general Octavio LePage wrote a letter urging the party to boycott future elections unless the GOV provides objective representation on the National Electoral Council, cleans up the National Electoral Register, and guarantees a manual count of votes. Party secretary general Ramos declared he would allow the AD grassroots to decide whether to participate in elections, but other AD interlocutors suggested the party had already decided to compete. In addition to the party officials' admission that the Amazonas election was the party's first priority, the AD mayors registered their opposition to a boycott in a meeting with the party executive March 7, according to press. ¶7. (C) AD also has unresolved leadership issues. According to press reports, former AD secretary general Humberto Celli announced his resignation from the party's executive committee, which he blasted for what he termed a short-sighted strategy that allowed the administration to win over voters from social classes who traditionally had supported AD. Coronil complained to poloff and the USAID country representative that his party allowed young, creative officials no political space. Coronil said he had aligned himself with the youth and women's wings of the party to push for reform, but the AD old guard were not interested in change. Naming two AD "youths" over 40 who deserved a chance to lead the party, Coronil anticipated the review of most party executive positions during internal party elections, which could be delayed until after the August municipal elections, according to Canache. ¶8. (C) AD leaders have fought to squelch rumors that some of them are making backroom deals with the Chavez administration. Ramos vowed in a November party meeting that AD would not be co-opted, ruling that no one would talk to MVR officials outside of public fora. According to press reports, the executive committee on January 13 suspended from party activities former Caracas Mayor Claudio Fermin for declaring his opposition to the policy of avoiding the MVR. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) As AD officials are quick to assert, AD is the largest opposition party and the only one with national reach. Nonetheless, it is remarkably ill-prepared to confront Chavismo. AD's custom of harping on Chavez's anti-democratic tendencies will not attract votes from a movement of former coup-plotters elected on a platform of poverty alleviation. The pursuit of solidarity and resources abroad reflects the party's sense of desperation. Even though boycotting elections would generate more international interest in its plight, AD is likely to run candidates this year because the alternative would be to risk allowing Chavez--along with smaller opposition parties--to absorb much of the support it has left. The suspension of Fermin probably is the party's attempt to distance itself from a figure widely considered corrupt while tainting him as a Chavez sympathizer. Brownfield NNNN 2005CARACA01011 - CONFIDENTIAL