BROTHERHOOD RISING IN ALEXANDRIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 009486

SIPDIS

NSC STAFF FOR SINGH, DORAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/26/2015
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KISL KDEM EG
SUBJECT: BROTHERHOOD RISING IN ALEXANDRIA

Classified By: CDA Stuart Jones for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (U) This cable was prepared by the American Presence Post
Alexandria.

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Summary
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2. (C) The strong showing of Muslim Brotherhood candidates
from Alexandria has provoked speculation that the group may
see Egypt's second city as a launching point for broader
political gains, in particular through greater representation
on Alexandria's local (Governorate) council, due for
elections in April 2006. Reaction among Alexandrians to the
parliamentary results, wherein MB candidates in the city were
successful in eight of the nine races in which they competed,
has been generally relaxed except among Copts and some among
the secular/liberal opposition parties (and NDP partisans)
queried by APP Alexandria. Several contacts expect the
movement to "flex its muscles" over the coming years in
Alexandria and report deep concern about this possibility
within the GOE. The appointment of a new governor from the
ranks of the state security apparatus is expected before the
end of the year. End summary.

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MB's Wide Power Base
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3. (C) Muslim Brotherhood strength in Alexandria, Egypt's
second city, was confirmed during the November parliamentary
elections when MB candidates won eight of the nine races in
which the party competed and for which returns are in. A
further two MB candidates await run-offs for professional and
worker seats in the disputed Manshiya district, delayed
indefinitely after reports of irregularities during the
second round. Should those seats go to the MB candidates -
and both were ahead when the vote was suspended according to
voting statistics released by the GOE -- it would be 10 for
11 in Alexandria (the city's total parliamentary
representation is 22 seats).


4. (C) The Brotherhood's power in Alexandria has long been
acknowledged, particularly in the city's bleak outer suburbs,
crammed with new (and poor) arrivals from the northern Delta.
In these portions of the city, the MB's charities have been
at work for years providing health and other social services
that centralized and inefficient GOE ministries have
struggled to match. (Note: The GOE has only recently been
able to deliver water to a number of these areas thanks to a
major USAID-financed grant to the Alexandria General Water
Authority.)


5. (C) However, the group's power in Alexandria goes beyond
the poorer classes and newly-arrived immigrants. The MB's
power bases have traditionally been within the city's
professional syndicates (particularly the powerful doctors,
lawyers and engineers unions),and among the teeming crowds
of young university students, who number nearly 200,000 at
the city's main government campus, Alexandria University.
This position within the "educated" community, in particular
the prestigious fields of engineering, law and medicine,
gives the MB added cachet and authority. Yasir Zaki, a
medical doctor and member of Alexandria's local council told
APP Alexandria Principal Officer that many of the MB's
leaders in Alexandria rose to prominence through campus
activism in the 1970's following Sadat's relaxation of
restrictions on the MB in order to provide a counterweight to
leftist domination of student politics. Among the activists
that benefited from this policy, said Zaki, was Dr. Ibrahim
El Zafrani, prominent dermatologist, Head of the Doctor's
syndicate in Alexandria, and a senior MB leader here. Zaki
knew El Zafrani as a student, and describes him as not only a
shrewd political activist, but as a capable and respected
physician well known for his charitable activities.

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Next Stop, Town Hall?
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6. (C) Zaki, a prominent member of Alexandria's elected local
council, noted that soon after the parliamentary elections,
he received what he took to be coordinated representations
from several MB-associated physician colleagues asking his
opinion about the local council, prospects for the coming
election, relative capabilities of individual members, etc.
Zaki is convinced that the MB intends a vigorous campaign for
local council seats during the elections scheduled for April
2006, but rumored to be delayed by the GOE for up to a year
while electoral procedures are reformed. This prediction of
MB interest in broadening its power was echoed by numerous
other contacts of APP Alexandria, who believe that the MB
views Alexandria as a city conducive to a consolidation of
its power and opportunity to show its capabilities for
governance.

7. (C) Such a prospect has caused deep concern among
Alexandria's non-NDP secular political activists. An
administrator at Alexandria University who was also a failed
Wafd candidate for Parliament from the Manshiya district
echoed to Alexandria PO concern that the MB will seek a
strong showing in the local council, adding there was little
to stand in their way. The Wafd party in Alexandria had been
decimated by years of relentless GOE pressure on the secular
opposition, he said, while the NDP was completely
discredited. In his own case, the Wafd national party had
refused financial support for his parliamentary campaign,
while sympathetic private parties (e.g., wealthy businessmen)
remain reluctant to contribute to the Wafd's efforts out of
fear of reprisal, such as lost contracts or bureaucratic
difficulties, from the GOE. While the MB raises money
through quasi-religious activities and the NDP makes use of
resources of the state and business interests seeking
government favors, all others are prevented from effective
participation, he lamented.


8. (C) This academic contact also predicted the MB would
increase activities on the campus of Alexandria University,
home to a student body of nearly 200,000. The movement would
likely "flex its muscles" on campus in the coming years, he
said, in addition to continuing its active off-campus
recruitment programs. He described a well organized effort
by the MB in cafes, barbershops, youth clubs and mosques
surrounding the campus to seek out and recruit university
students, particularly new arrivals from the rural
governorates surrounding Alexandria. These efforts also
include convincing young university women to adopt the higab,
or head covering, to demonstrate adherence to "proper Islamic
values."


9. (C) Overall, however, the reaction among Alexandrians to
the MB's strong showing has been relaxed. The city is
notoriously independent, but it has also become quite
conservative over the decades. The MB was not viewed as
particularly menacing in conversations with dozens of APP
contacts over the weeks since the election. An
Alexandria-based petroleum engineer and former NDP member of
parliament who ran unsuccessfully in 2005 as an independent,
said the NDP was so despised and out of touch with
Alexandrians that most people welcomed the MB victory, even
if they don't agree with the MB's ideas. He also noted that
the MB's results were somewhat skewed due to low turnout
among non-MB opposition voters, who stayed home out of
apathy, while the MB whipped the NDP in its organization and
voter registration efforts.

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Business Okay With the Brothers?
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10. (C) While some of APP's Alexandria business contacts have
expressed concern over a lack of clarity in the MB's economic
views, particularly regarding banking and free trade, most of
those queried noted the positive side to an effective
opposition movement within the Egyptian political system,
whatever its philosophy. Such a phenomenon would check the
Government's excesses and likely put a brake on corruption
and waste. Many of these contacts reflected the view that in
the end the NDP's continued overwhelming majority will
preserve the broader economic reform agenda, while several
also doubt the MB would seek to reverse the GOE's economic
reforms in order not to spook the Egyptian or international
business communities in the coming period. Zaki, the
physician with many contacts in the movement, told APP PO
that the MB itself is heavily vested in the Alexandria
economy, principally through land holdings in the north coast
resort districts - which have shot up in value over the past
several years -- and through "control" of the used car trade,
among other areas. He said the MB is much more sophisticated
than business interests sometimes give it credit for, and
want to see employment gains and economic growth every bit as
much as others. It is false to presume all wealthy
Alexandria business persons were NDP loyalists or even
secular in their leanings. As Alexandria has become more
conservative and religious in recent years, so too have many
of its successful businessmen.

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Copts/Liberal Intelligentsia Alarmed
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11. (C) The glaring exception to the general acceptance of
the vote in Alexandria is among Copts and many of the liberal
intelligentsia associated with the Bibliotheca Alexandrina.
Copts were already on edge prior to the election due to
Christian-Muslim riots in the Muharram Bey neighborhood
during Ramadan (October 2005),and those feelings were
exacerbated by the widespread MB victory here. According a
Coptic member of the Alexandria local council, many Copts are
at least discussing the idea of emigration, a phenomenon he
said reflects the increasing alienation many Christians feel
in a society they see moving inexorably towards less
tolerance and acceptance of Christian rights. Alexandria was
once a city dominated by foreign, and largely Christian,
communities that has seen stark changes since the revolution.
He noted widespread anger among Copts with the NDP for what
they see as a duplicitous campaign first to coax an
endorsement for the President's reelection from Pope Shenuda,
then an abandonment of Coptic candidates and issues in the
parliamentary polls.


12. (C) Alarm is also evident in the views of many senior
employees of the Library of Alexandria, or Bibliotheca
Alexandrina, completed in 2002 and conceived as the inheritor
of the famous library of antiquity located here, a center of
extraordinary scientific, medical and intellectual discovery.
The new Library, which projects studiously a "humanist"
secular approach, has been challenged to fit into this
increasingly conservative city, and has been the subject of
harsh criticism among MB-affiliated members of the 2000-05
Parliament for, among other things, the lack of a mosque on
Library grounds. The Library was also criticized by
MB-affiliated groups for agreeing to remove copies of the
"Protocols of the Elders of Zion" following intense
international pressure (notably from the USG). Thus, it is
no surprise that its administration would react poorly to a
strengthening of the MB's political position in Alexandria.
Several among the senior leadership expressed concern that
the Library's already tenuous support in Cairo (it costs a
bundle to run, in a cash-strapped country) may be further
eroded as a result of the parliamentary vote.

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Send in The - New -- Governor?
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13. (C) The GOE is rumored to be deeply concerned about the
election results, which come on top of the Ramadan sectarian
riots, another cause for alarm. Alexandria has been astir
with rumors that its much-revered governor, Mohammad Abdel
Salam Al Mahgoub, will be replaced in a broad government
reshuffle before the end of the year. Al Mahgoub, a former
General in the GOE State Security apparatus and former
Governor of Ismailia, is viewed as a problem solver and
innovator but not as a particularly loyal (NDP) party man.
He is held responsible by the NDP for the failure of one of
the NDP's high profile candidates, Alexandria University
President Mohammad Abdellah, who lost to an independent
candidate and wealthy contractor close to the Governor. Al
Mahgoub is also viewed as having bungled the Muharram Bey
violence and election day security arrangements, in which
riots and fighting broke out between MB and NDP loyalists.
The GOE is expected to replace Al-Mahgoub with a prominent
figure with a background in the security services.

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Comment
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14. (C) The MB's nearly perfect electoral record in
Alexandria's recent parliamentary elections should, in one
way, come as no surprise. The city has been trending
conservative and religious for decades along with the rest of
the country, but also due to capital flight, economic
stagnation and increasing rural migration. The NDP is
clearly discredited here, while the secular opposition
parties are as weak as elsewhere in the country. With this
resounding success at its back, the MB appears to be
preparing for strong gains in the city's local council
elections and to consolidate political power. That said, the
election result may not be as revealing as it appears, since
apathy and lack of belief in the fairness of the voting
system kept many non-MB, non-NDP voters away from the polls.
The MB commands an extremely disciplined following, and can
be expected to repeat its success in local elections if held
this year, but further down the line its support may level
off as greater numbers of Alexandrians register and
participate in the electoral process. However it works out,
Alexandria is a city to watch both as a possible indicator of
the MB's strength and political program, and in its
relations with a broader public currently willing to give it
a chance but not decidedly in its corner. End comment.

JONES