EGYPT: PRELIMINARY RESULTS INDICATE FLAT NDP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 008663

SIPDIS

NSC STAFF FOR SINGH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2015
TAGS: PGOV KDEM EG
SUBJECT: EGYPT: PRELIMINARY RESULTS INDICATE FLAT NDP
PERFORMANCE, SIGNIFICANT MB GAINS

REF: A. CAIRO 8615

B. CAIRO 8602

C. CAIRO 8556 AND PREVIOUS

Classified by DCM Stuart Jones for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Though official results are not yet out,
much "unofficial" data on results of the first round of
People's Assembly elections is in circulation as of late
afternoon, November 16. The unofficial results show a flat
performance by the ruling NDP, complemented by a relatively
strong performance by "independent" NDP candidates.
Nominally independent candidates affiliated with the Muslim
Brotherhood appear to have already doubled the MB's current
representation in parliament, in only the first of three
rounds of elections. Reform-minded contacts we reached this
afternoon were dismayed by the results, which they argued
underlined the weakness of the NDP's "reform camp" and the
impotence of the secular opposition, paving the way for the
rise of an "illiberal" Islamist trend. We recommend any
public comment on the elections remain brief and factual.
End summary.


2. (SBU) As of late afternoon on November 16, we are still
awaiting official announcement of results from the November
15 runoffs for People's Assembly seats in 62 constituencies
in the provinces of Cairo, Giza, Manoufiya, Minya, Beni Suef,
Assiyut, and Marsa Matrouh.


3. (SBU) Justice Minister Aboul Leil, Chairman of the
Parliamentary Elections Commission, was reportedly scheduled
to have a press conference late on November 16, but the time
has not yet been announced.


4. (SBU) However, large amounts of data on election results,
generally described as "semi-official" in independent and
opposition media is circulating in Cairo. The picture we
have put together, based on claims and reports from various
sources indicates the following:

(Out of 164 seats at stake)

Official NDP Candidates 64
Independent NDP Candidates 62
Muslim Brotherhood Candidates 34
Wafd, Taggamu', misc. 6

(Note: We emphasize again that these figures are estimates,
do not add up perfectly, and do not have official status.
End note.)


5. (C) Assuming the figures, or the general proportions, hold
up in the official results, we note:

-- Official NDP candidates will have won about 41 percent of
the vote, hardly better than the 38 percent it secured in
2000 - surely a disappointment to those who have been working
to overhaul the party and its image since that time. Most
observers expect, however, that as in 2000, most if not all
of the "independent" candidates linked to the NDP will return
to the party to join the majority bloc.

-- The MB will have more than doubled its presence in the
People's Assembly (the MB held 16 seats in the outgoing
Assembly) in only the first of three rounds.

-- Secular opposition parties Wafd and Taggamu' fared
miserably, scoring only two seats each. Their participation
in the seven party "National Front for Change" appeared to
benefit them not at all. In the outgoing parliament, Wafd
and Taggamu' had five and six seats each.

--------------
Key Winners and Losers
--------------


6. (C) Among the prominent losers in yesterday's runoffs was
Hossam Badrawi, a long-time protege of Gamal Mubarak,
chairman of the education committee in the outgoing
parliament, and a former leading member of the NDP's "reform
camp."

-- A conspicuous victor is Mostafa Bakry, publisher of the
independent tabloid Al-Osboa. Through his editorials and his
paper's "investigative pieces" covering "American Zionist
conspiracies" to divide, conquer, and even wage genocide in
the Muslim world, Bakry has long sought to distinguish
himself as Egypt's leading anti-American demagogue.

-- Another conspicuous winner is Ragab Helal Hameida, the
slippery Islamist kebab-vendor-cum-politician who joined Musa
Musa's insurrection against Ayman Nour in the Ghad Party.
Though Hameida was at least until recently a member of Musa
Musa's breakaway "Ghad Party," he apparently ran as an
independent.

--------------
Initial Reactions
--------------


7. (C) Ossama Al-Ghazali Harb, editor of the International
Politics Journal at Al-Ahram Center, characterized the
results so far as a "failure for the NDP's New Guard,"
referring principally to the absence of younger,
reform-minded figures on the roster of official NDP
candidates. According to Negad El-Borai, a civil society
activist and lawyer, the loss by Hossam Badrawi to
NDP-dissident Moustafa Hisham Khalil in Qasr Al-Nil district
is "symbolic of internal NDP divides," and of the fact that
the NDP Old Guard remains the party's only effective way to
achieve electoral success.


8. (C) Hisham Kassem, publisher of Al-Masry Al-Youm, observed
that the first round results suggest that "our strong ruling
party is not so strong after all." Kassem said that
NDP-independent Hisham Moustafa Khalil, who prevailed over
NDPer Hossam Badrawi, had "bought his way to power, every
step of the way."


9. (C) Asked to explain why the MB independents appear to
have done so well, our contacts offered several points:

--The relative neutrality of the security services, compared
to 1995 and 2000 when they arrested MB candidates and blocked
prospective MB voters from the polls, created an atmosphere
where MB campaigns stood a higher chance of success. The
fact that the MB cadres are organized, motivated, and
perceived as uncorrupt also contributed to their successes.

--Moreover, the MB took advantage of the increased
transparency that has so far characterized the 2005 polls of
voting to position their own "monitors" and other activists
at the polls which made it impossible for them to be
displaced without blatant fraud or intimidation.

--The "foolish" effort by some NDP candidates to rally voters
using an appeal to Islam played into the MB's hands since the
NDP's Islamist bona fides are suspect to many voters.


10. (C) Borai opined that the GOE now faces a problem largely
of its own making: by putting "liberals" like Ayman Nour
under "hard pressure" they had, again, left the Islamists as
the most attractive force for Egyptians who are opposed to
the ruling party. Instead of bona fide reformist liberals in
the new Parliament, said Kassem, the leading players will be
demagogues like Moustafa Bakry (publisher of scandal-sheet
"Osboa") and Ragab Hillal Hameida, of the pseudo-Ghad party,
widely reputed as a con-man, thought to have been supported
by elements in the GOE who were looking to discredit Ayman
Nour.

--------------
Comment
--------------


11. (C) This is an initial and preliminary reading of the
first of three rounds of People's Assembly elections. It
will be critical to see if the Parliamentary Elections
Commission confirms the MB wins when it announces the
official results. Despite the tremendous efforts of Gamal
Mubarak, his circle of advisors and operatives, and even the
President himself, to overhaul the NDP's image and present
itself to voters as a newly reform-minded party with a vision
for the future, the flat performance of the party's official
candidates indicates that it has failed its first electoral
test. End comment.

--------------
Suggested Press Guidance
--------------


12. (C) Given that results are not yet official, and given
that we are only completing the first of three rounds of
elections, we recommend any public comment on the process
remain as concise and factual as possible, possibly along the
following lines:


-- Early indications are that the ruling National Democratic
Party, and independents related to the NDP, have led the
polling so far;

-- We also understand independent candidates tied to the
Muslim Brotherhood are making a significant showing;

-- Security forces at the polls have generally conducted
themselves professionally and impartially;
-- Domestic civil society groups, who were accredited to
monitor the polls for the first time, have registered some
concerns about the process and have reported their intention
to file them with the Egyptian authorities;

-- This is just the first of three stages of elections. The
next two phases are scheduled for November 20 and December
1, each with likely runoff stages.


RICCIARDONE