EGYPT: FIRST-STAGE RUNOFFS IN THE PARLIAMENTARY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 008615

SIPDIS

NSC STAFF FOR SINGH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/15/2015
TAGS: PGOV KDEM EG
SUBJECT: EGYPT: FIRST-STAGE RUNOFFS IN THE PARLIAMENTARY
ELECTIONS

REF: A. CAIRO 8602

B. CAIRO 8556

C. CAIRO 8555

D. CAIRO 8554

E. CAIRO 8546

F. CAIRO 8501

Classified by ECPO Minister Counselor Michael Corbin for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (C) Polls officially opened at 8AM and will close at 7 PM
on November 15 for runoffs in the first stage of the People's
Assembly elections, which launched on November 9. Runoffs
are being held in 62 constituencies in five provinces
including metropolitan Cairo, representing about 80 percent
of all constituencies contested in the first stage. Domestic
monitoring groups, who had representatives at the majority of
polling places, have issued preliminary findings citing
access problems, voter list problems, and scattered reports
of (apparently minor) violence and harassment. Emboffs in
the field observed a very strong and high profile Muslim
Brotherhood (MB) presence at almost every polling station.
Alienation from the GOE and strong affinity for the MB were
in evidence in rural Giza, while in the warrens of central
Cairo we observed a virtually open "vote market" in which
citizens were paid LE 20 (about USD 3.50) by one candidate
and LE 50 (about USD 8.75) by another for their votes.
Today's races mainly pit ruling NDP candidates against either
"NDP renegades" who are running as independents after they
failed to get the party nomination, or MB candidates, who are
also competing fiercely, in two-thirds of the races. Results
will probably be available sometime on November 16. End
summary.

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Observations by Domestic Monitors
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2. (SBU) The Independent Committee on Election Monitoring
(ICEM),led by Saad Eddin Ibrahim's Ibn Khaldoun Center,
claims that 50 percent of polling places failed to open at
the official 8 AM start time. Another domestic monitoring
group, the National Campaign for Monitoring the Elections
(NCME) also cited a number of polling places that did not
open on time. At several polling places visited by poloff on
November 15, local citizens made similar assertions.


3. (SBU) As of late afternoon Cairo time, there have been
very few reports of violent incidents. ICEM reported that
two of its observers were harassed. In Giza an ICEM monitor
was harassed by supporters of a local NDP candidate and in
Assiyut an ICEM monitor was "interrogated" by police. NCME
reported skirmishes between supporters of NDP and MB
candidates in the constituency of Badrasheen, next to the
Saqarra step pyramid, and in Bandar Shebeen, in the Delta
province of Manoufiya. ICEM cited a skirmish between MB and
NDP supporters in Assiyut.


4. (SBU) ICEM complained of arbitrary decision-making by
local electoral officials, some of whom allowed ICEM's
monitors to enter polling stations and others who did not.
ICEM noted that some local electoral officials cited a "new
directive" reversing the stated policy of allowing domestic
monitors access to polling places. ICEM also noted that in
a number of polling places, representatives of opposition
candidates (all Muslim Brothers) were denied entry. (Under
Egypt's electoral law, every competing candidate has the
right to post a representative in polling places to observe
balloting and counting.)


5. (C) At every polling place visited by emboff on November
15, MB affiliates confirmed that they had a representative
posted inside, but they expressed concern that they would be
ejected at counting time (as they were, they alleged, on
November 9). NCME's initial report asserted that at a
polling place in Minya, security forces systematically denied
entry to voters suspected of being MB supporters. (Note:
This is the first allegation we have seen this election
season of security forces blocking access to polling places.
End note.)


6. (C) NCME and ICEM are both citing widespread problems
related to voter lists, frustrating many would-be voters who
were unable to cast their ballots because their names could
not be found. This was also a leading complaint at all the
polling places visited by emboffs.

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Snapshots from the Field: Alienation in Rural Giza...
-------------- --------------


7. (C) Poloff visited the impoverished constituency of
Ouseem, a densely populated village in Giza province, about
10 miles north of the Giza pyramids. Supporters of Muslim
Brotherhood candidate Mahmoud Amer appeared to have saturated
the area, with loudspeaker trucks, ubiquitous banners, and
even a parade of about 20 7-10 year old boys, many carrying
sticks and marching in formation, chanting "Islam is the
solution." At least 100 villagers quickly gathered around
poloff, eager to share their opinions and complaints. Among
the things we heard:

-- "We are sick of the NDP. They do nothing for us. Look at
the roads you drove in on. We do not even having running
water in this village."

-- "The NDP MPs are corrupt. All they care about is getting
free services from local businesses. In exchange they
promise to 'fix their taxes' but they do nothing for the
poor."

-- "I would vote for anyone who cares about the people. The
MB or anyone else, but never the NDP."


8. (C) At least five different citizens we spoke with at
random intervals in Ouseem repeated allegations that local
GOE officials, either State Security agents or the "Umda" --
the GOE appointed mayor -- were spreading the word, in some
cases door to door, that anyone who votes for MB candidate
Amer will find himself in jail. One citizen claimed that
the Umda in the neighborhood was going door to door, offering
10LE as an inducement to vote, but warning that a vote cast
for the MB would be a "big mistake."

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...and the Vote Market in Maniyal
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9. (C) In Cairo's Maniyal constituency, just two miles south
of the Embassy, poloff witnessed numerous flagrant instances
of vote buying by both the NDP, on behalf of candidate
Mamdouh Makki, and by supporters of the "Independent" (i.e.,
NDP dissident) Ms. Shahinaz Al-Naggar. At the three polling
stations we visited, representatives of both candidates
waited outside of the polling stations. The representatives
gave voters entering the stations pre-printed cards with the
respective candidates' names and other information.


10. (C) Inside the polling stations, according to voters and
candidates representatives with whom we spoke, voters would
cast their votes for their "choice" and then have the
pre-printed voting card certified in the station by the
official candidate agents who were observing the casting of
ballots, along with the judges, inside the stations. When
the voters emerged from casting their votes, they met again
with the representatives who had supplied them the
pre-printed cards, and exchanged the cards either for a cash
payment or for a chit to redeem for cash at the offices of
the respective candidates.


11. (C) Several of the campaign workers outside the polling
stations attempted to conceal their activities from poloff,
once they realized who he was, but several others sheepishly
described the process in detail to poloff. Poloff saw at
least 15 campaign workers, each surrounded by small throngs
of about 10 voters each, at the Abou Saoud polling station in
Maniyal who were all engaged in this vote buying process.
Cash, voting receipts, and chits for payment were all
publicly displayed. According to one NDP worker worried
about his candidate's hopes for success, the Shahinaz
campaign's ability to pay LE 50 per vote (about USD 8.75)
exceeded the Makki camp's self-imposed limit of LE 20 (about
USD 3.50) per vote.


12. (C) For its part, the Muslim Brotherhood was aggressively
combating such transactions. At several polling stations in
the downtown constituency of Abdin, poloff saw groups of MB
supporters chanting "today they'll buy your vote and tomorrow
they'll sell you out." An MB pamphlet poloff collected in
Abdin warned citizens that selling their votes was "forbidden
by Islamic Shari'a." An MB campaign volunteer at another
Abdin polling place told poloff "MB supporters are
honest...They may take the money, but they will still vote
for us."


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