EGYPT: PATTERNS EMERGING AS PA ELECTIONS MOVE TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 008602 SIPDIS NSC STAFF FOR SINGH E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/2015 TAGS: PGOV KDEM EG SUBJECT: EGYPT: PATTERNS EMERGING AS PA ELECTIONS MOVE TO RUNOFFS ON NOVEMBER 15 REF: A. CAIRO 8556 ¶B. CAIRO 8555 ¶C. CAIRO 8554 ¶D. CAIRO 8546 ¶E. CAIRO 8501 Classified by ECPO Minister-Counselour Michael Corbin for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Runoffs for the first stage of Egypt's parliamentary elections will be held on November 15. Almost 80 percent of the constituencies will have runoffs. Emerging patterns include a predictably strong performance by the ruling NDP, a noteworthy show of strength by the Muslim Brotherhood, and a miserable showing by the recognized opposition parties. The independent/opposition press, and Egyptian contacts, are seized by developments in two constituencies in which intimidation and/or manipulation appears to have been particularly blatant. Domestic observers, who were a prominent feature of the November 9 polls, will again be out in force on November 15, and emboffs will also be out to take readings at a number of polling sites. End Summary. -------------- Stage One: Round Two -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The first stage of People's Assembly elections, covering metropolitan Cairo and several provinces in the Delta, Upper Egypt, and the Western Desert, will continue on November 15, with runoff elections. The runoffs will be staged in 62 constituencies, representing about 80 percent of the constituencies competed on November 9. (According to Egyptian law, candidates must secure at least 51 percent of the vote to be elected. If they fail to do so in the first round, the two leading candidates advance to a runoff.) -------------- Patterns -------------- ¶3. (C) With so many of the races going to runoffs, it is too early to make many definitive pronouncements about the first stage of the elections, but several significant patterns appear to be emerging: -- Official candidates of the NDP performed generally well, although most will still have to compete in runoffs. -- Independent candidates who are affiliated to the NDP but who failed to secure the party's nomination are the second strongest candidate category. Observers anticipate that these candidates, if elected, will be welcomed back into the NDP to join the majority bloc. 
-- Muslim Brotherhood candidates (who are nominally independent) also made a strong showing. They will compete in 42 of the 62 runoffs. -- Recognized opposition parties fared miserably, failing to secure any seats in the first round. Only 9 opposition party candidates will compete in runoffs on November 15. Of these, most are long-shots. While there are still two more stages of elections, each with likely run-offs, at this rate the recognized opposition parties will be lucky to retain their tiny presence in the outgoing parliament. -------------- Irregularities -------------- ¶4. (C) As discussed reftels, domestic election monitors were out in force on November 9 and will also be deployed in large numbers on November 15. Among the irregularities documented by the monitors on November 9 were: -- flawed voter registries containing missing entries, multiple entries, and many deceased voters; -- late openings and early or unexplained closures of polling stations in numerous districts; -- credible allegations of vote buying in many districts, (including several instances witnessed by Embassy observers); -- several cases of stolen/missing ballot boxes; and -- scattered intimidation of voters. ¶5. (SBU) Although there were several reports of firearms discharged in different districts, we are aware of no fatalities occurring on November 9. (By contrast in the 2000 PA elections, 12 people were killed in violence during the Cairo round.) -------------- Extreme Examples -------------- ¶6. (C) While predictions that fraud and intimidation would take on relatively more subtle forms this year have so far proven accurate, there has been considerable indignation in the opposition and independent press, echoed by our contacts, about two races in particular: -- In the Dokki district of Giza, the parliamentary elections commission has twice revised its official pronouncements on the race pitting MB Hazem Abou Ismail against NDP scion (and Deputy PA Speaker) Amal Othman. Although the commission pronounced Abou Ismail the outright winner on November 10 (ref A),by November 11 they announced that Abou Ismail had not actually won an outright majority and would have to go to a runoff against Othman. Outrage from Ismail's supporters was compounded on November 12 when the elections commission announced that a further recount determined that Othman had won outright and that there would be no runoff. Belief that these results were unsubtly manipulated is nearly universal in Cairo. -- More information is emerging about the successful efforts of NDP candidate Yahya Wahdan, a Colonel in the State Security office until three weeks ago, to unseat leading opposition figure Ayman Nour in the working class Cairo neighborhood of Bab Shariya. A journalist contact told us he was present in a polling station when Wahdan's brother, accompanied by a thuggish entourage, ejected Ghad Party representatives there to observe the counting, adding that these expulsions occurred at many polling stations in the district. Another journalist wrote that he had witnessed a judge in a polling station systematically invalidating ballots for Nour during the count. -- Both Nour and Abou Ismail are contesting the results in administrative court and will get a hearing on November 22. -------------- Results Annulled in Four Districts -------------- ¶7. (SBU) In another sign of judicial regulation of the electoral process, an administrative court annulled on November 13 the results in four constituencies and ordered that they be re-competed, with the timing and modalities to be worked out. The court rulings are based on an archaic clause of the constitution, still applied literally, which reserves 50 percent of the PA seats to "workers" and "farmers." Court action in these particular districts appears to have been triggered by specific challenges to the qualifications of individual candidates. One of the four constituencies that will have repeat elections is Wayli, where Mounir Abdel Nour, the prominent Christian businessman and leader of the Wafd Party's tiny parliamentary bloc was initially pronounced defeated. -------------- Looking Ahead -------------- ¶8. (SBU) After the results of the November 15 runoffs become available, probably sometime on November 16, we will have a clearer picture of the key trends in this year's PA elections. The second round of parliamentary races, to be staged in much of the Nile Delta and Alexandria, kick off on November 20, and the final round will commence on December 1, with the last runoffs on December 7. RICCIARDONE