EGYPT'S PEOPLE'S ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS: INITIAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 008556 SIPDIS SENSITIVE NSC STAFF FOR SINGH E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM EG SUBJECT: EGYPT'S PEOPLE'S ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS: INITIAL RESULTS FROM ROUND ONE REF: A. CAIRO 8555 ¶B. CAIRO 8554 ¶C. CAIRO 8546 ¶D. CAIRO 8501 Sensitive but Unclassified. Please protect accordingly. ¶1. (SBU) Summary: As of midday on November 10, the Parliamentary Elections Commission issued results for 43 of 88 districts competed in the first round of People's Assembly elections. As anticipated, many races have gone to a runoff stage, which will take place on November 15. There have been decisive results in a number of other significant races. In one result that will be controversial, leading opposition figure Ayman Nour lost his seat to a retired State Security Colonel. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) Although results, and rumors of results, began to spread around Cairo overnight, it was not until around 0730 local Cairo time that Judge Intisar Nessim of the Parliamentary Elections Commission went on State TV to convey official results for 43 of the 88 constituencies competed yesterday. (There are a total of 222 constituencies - the remainder will be competed in a second stage on November 20 and a third stage on December 1.) ¶3. (SBU) A senior aide to Gamal Mubarak contacted ECPO Counselor late on the evening of November 9 to provide the NDP's spin on the elections, which he described as very successful. He accurately forecast a number of the results. ¶4. (SBU) A number of key ruling NDP figures were victorious in the first round. These included: -- Minister of PA Affairs Kamal el-Shazly. -- Minister of Housing Ibrahim Soliman. -- Mubarak's Chief of Staff, Zakaria Azmy. -- PA Speaker Fathy Surour. ¶5. (SBU) In the closely-watched race for one of two seats at stake in Central Cairo's Qasr al-Nil district, Gamal Mubarak associate Hossam Badrawy will face a runoff against Hisham Mostafa Khalil. ¶6. (SBU) Opposition party candidates running under the "National Front for Change" banner appear to have fared poorly. Mounir Abdel Nour, the prominent Coptic businessman and leader of the Wafd party's modest bloc in the PA lost his seat in Cairo's Waily district to NDP candidate Shireen Abdel Aziz. ¶7. (SBU) In perhaps the most tense race of the round, the embattled Ghad Party leader Ayman Nour, who placed second to Mubarak in the September presidential election, was defeated by Yahya Wahdani, a retired Colonel in the State Security service. Nour and his supporters have alleged credibly that Wahdani benefited from the overt and active support of local security authorities, including direct threats and intimidation of key community leaders and prominent Nour supporters. ¶8. (SBU) The scene in Nour's Bab al-Shariya district, visited by emboff on November 9, foretold the result. Wahdani's campaign had saturated the area with banners, loudspeaker trucks, and thuggish-looking young supporters. The relatively few Nour supporters who ventured onto the streets were drowned out. Ghad Party sources alleged that Nour's wife Gameela Ismail was roughed up by police in the district on November 9, but have offered few details, and we have not been able to reach her for comment. Nour and supporters will almost certainly contest the result in court, but this will be an uphill battle. ¶9. (SBU) The Muslim Brotherhood's full court press in this year's PA elections appears to be yielding results: -- MB candidate Hazem Abou Ismail defeated NDP fixture Amal Osman, Deputy PA speaker and one of only six female candidates the ruling party is fielding this fall. -- In the eastern suburb of Nasr City, independent MB candidate Essam Mokhtar handed a defeat to another of the NDP's six female candidates, Thoraya Labena. -- In Helwan, prominent MB figure Ali Fateh al-Bab defeated NDP candidate Mohamed Mostafa. -- The MB's only female candidate, Makaram al-Derry, who attracted international media attention for her vocal rejection of feminism, will go to a runoff against the favorite, NDP candidate Mustafa Salab. -- MB candidates will also move to runoffs on Tuesday in at least five more constituencies. ¶10. (SBU) Comment: The timely issuance of results was a test for the newly formed Parliamentary Elections Commission, which was only legislated into existence in the spring. (Previously, the Ministry of Interior was responsible for administering the elections and tabulating results.) The unprecedented participation of domestic monitors, who were out in all constituencies and who have already begun to comment on the conduct of the polls (ref A),will provide more details and commentary on the counting process. End comment. RICCIARDONE