EGYPT: SENIOR NDP OFFICIAL MAINTAINS OBJECTIONS TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 007501

SIPDIS

NSC STAFF FOR POUNDS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/26/2015
TAGS: PGOV KDEM EG
SUBJECT: EGYPT: SENIOR NDP OFFICIAL MAINTAINS OBJECTIONS TO
INTERNATIONAL ELECTION MONITORS

Classified by Charge d'Affaires Stuart Jones for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) During a September 22 meeting, Ahmed Ezz, a senior
member of the ruling NDP, told visiting DAS Dibble that Egypt
aspired to the highest standards for the coming parliamentary
elections. However, Ezz asserted that a GOE invitation to
international monitors was highly unlikely, not because the
NDP opposed it, but because Egypt's judiciary, which
supervises the elections, and the Egyptian public were
hostile to the idea. Departing from GOE orthodoxy, Ezz
downplayed the organizational skills and electoral potential
of the illegal but tolerated Muslim Brotherhood. Ezz's
insistence that the GOE's hands are tied by the judiciary and
public opinion is disingenuous and no doubt reflects the
reservations harbored by GOE/NDP decision makers about
international monitors. End summary.

-------------- --------------
Self-Congratulations on the Presidential Election
-------------- --------------


2. (C) DAS Elizabeth Dibble, accompanied by Charge and POLOFF
(notetaker) called September 22 on Ahmed Ezz, a senior member
of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP),at party
headquarters in downtown Cairo. Ezz, who ran President
Mubarak's reelection campaign and is very close to Gamal
Mubarak, was eager to present his views on the September 7
presidential election. He described Mubarak's 88 percent of
the vote as a major achievement, given the unprecedented
level of criticism and rhetorical attacks the president had
suffered. Popular support for the President was genuinely
strong, he claimed. In a series of opinion polls conducted
by the NDP, Mubarak "never polled less than 82 percent,"
adding that the professional pollsters they had commissioned
discounted fear as a factor that might inflate the results.


3. (C) Ezz admitted that the NDP had been disappointed by the
turnout of 7.5 million voters, noting that their goal had
been 9 million. Ezz blamed the low turnout in part on the
overzealous practices of the judges, who created long lines
by only letting one voter at a time enter polling places,
even if there were four ballot boxes. Judges were also often
overcautious in matching prospective voters to names on the
voting list turning away many qualified voters. Ezz said the
GOE had been shocked and disappointed at the negativity of
initial coverage of the election in the international media,
focusing on individual irregularities instead of the positive
big picture. Over time, he believed, accounts in the western
media were being more gracious and objective in their
assessment of the election. Even prominent regime critic
Hafez Abou Seada, though he had identified some flaws in the
process, did not challenge the overall result, Ezz observed.


-------------- --
Ambitious Goals for the Parliamentary Elections
-------------- --


4. (C) Asked about preparations for the coming parliamentary
elections, set for three rounds beginning November 8, Ezz
asserted that the NDP was determined to adhere to the highest
standards of conduct and predicted that they would be the
most transparent and credible elections Egypt had ever
staged. Ezz said that after the coming parliamentary
elections, nine out of ten Egyptians would admit that they
were free and fair. (Comment: Ezz was vague about specific
steps the NDP/GOE would take to improve the conduct of this
year's polls. End comment.)

-------------- --------------
Judicial Independence = No international monitors
-------------- --------------


5. (C) Responding to DAS Dibble's points on the importance of
international monitoring, Ezz allowed that he understood the
benefits of this approach and had privately lobbied for it.
However, Ezz continued, the bottom line for the GOE was the
domestic "perception of acceptability," and asserted that
international monitoring crossed this line. According to
Ezz, the opposition of the Egyptian judiciary to
international monitoring was the biggest stumbling block.
The judges believe inviting international monitors is
tantamount to questioning their ability and integrity, he
claimed. Ezz recalled that the Presidential Elections
Commission had only very grudgingly and under great pressure
(from the NDP, he claimed) agreed to allow domestic monitors
to enter polling stations.


6. (C) The Egyptian people hold the judges in very high
esteem and will follow their lead on this issue, he asserted.
(Comment: Our own soundings indicate that there is no
consensus within the Egyptian judiciary on the acceptability
of international monitors - judges range in their views from
enlightened liberals to xenophobic nationalists. End
comment.) Ezz also offered that the NDP had conducted a
public opinion poll on the acceptability of monitoring and
found that 50 percent of those questioned had responded with
a "don't know." However, of the 50 percent prepared to offer
an opinion, 80 percent had said they were strongly against
international election monitors, he claimed.

--------------
Domestic Monitors Key
--------------


7. (C) DAS Dibble reemphasized to Ezz the importance the USG
attaches to international monitors, and cautioned that the
parliamentary elections would be closely scrutinized, without
the benefit of novelty that came with Egypt's first
competitive presidential election on September 7.
Continuing, DAS Dibble asked Ezz what concrete positive steps
Egypt would take in order to present the coming parliamentary
elections as fair and credible. Ezz said that Egypt would be
able to point to an expanded role for domestic monitors as an
indicator of progress.

--------------
Who's Afraid of the MB?
--------------


8. (C) Ezz strongly downplayed possible gains for the
(illegal, but partially tolerated) Muslim Brotherhood (MB) in
the parliamentary elections. (Note: There are currently 16
"independent" members of parliament affiliated with the MB.
End note.) Ezz decried the "myth" that the MB were well
organized and potentially poised to perform well at the
polls. "We are much better organized than they will ever
be," he asserted. "They will probably get some seats, but
there will be no major gains," he predicted confidently.

--------------
Comment
--------------


9. (C) Ezz's dismissive view of the Muslim Brotherhood is a
departure from GOE orthodoxy. The GOE has traditionally been
given to warnings that the MB would sweep to power and set up
a backward Iran-style regime if the electoral floodgates were
opened. On international monitors, Ezz may have been correct
in asserting that the GOE would have to overcome the
reservations of members of the judiciary, but the judges'
purported opposition is also too convenient a pretext. The
reluctance of GOE/NDP decision-makers to invite international
monitors probably reflects both their own nationalist
sensitivities and their cognizance of the manipulation and
fraud that has characterized past parliamentary elections -
and may well be evident in the November polls. End comment.


Visit Embassy Cairo's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/cairo

You can also access this site through the
State Department's Classified SIPRNET website.

JONES