GAMAL MUBARAK AIDE ON ELECTIONS, U.S. ASSISTANCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 007414

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID EG
SUBJECT: GAMAL MUBARAK AIDE ON ELECTIONS, U.S. ASSISTANCE


Classified by Acting DCM Peter Kaestner for reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d).


1. (C) Summary. A close aide to Gamal Mubarak thinks that
barriers to international observers for Egypt's upcoming
parliamentary elections are too high to overcome. He does
not believe that any party other than the ruling NDP will win
the number of seats required to field a candidate in the 2011
presidential election. He suggested that Ayman Nour's El
Ghad Party (and Nour himself) would perform poorly in the
upcoming election. The aide also complained about Hill
efforts to condition assistance on Radio Sawa cooperation.
ECPD Counselor made clear that the Administration would
continue to press for international observers for the
parliamentary election. End summary.

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Observers for Parliamentary Elections
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2. (C) ECPO Counselor had coffee September 15 with Karim
Haggag, an Egyptian diplomat currently working for
presidential son and NDP leader Gamal Mubarak. Most of the
conversation was on Egypt's upcoming parliamentary elections.
While acknowledging that there will likely be much in the
campaign and voting that the GOE would prefer the outside
world not see, ECPO Counselor stressed that a genuine
monitoring program, sizable and accredited, would be
essential to the credibility of the parliamentary poll.


3. (C) Haggag acknowledged that the ugliness (i.e.,
violence, blatant vote-rigging) of past parliamentary
elections was one factor that made the GOE hesitant to permit
observers. Haggag argued that there were "legal" and
"institutional" barriers as well. The legal barrier he
explained by comparing Egypt's presidential and parliamentary
election laws. Unlike the law governing presidential
elections, Haggag said, the law covering parliamentary
elections does not give the electoral commission any leeway
regarding who may be admitted to polling stations. Instead,
the law explicitly lays out who may be admitted and this does
not include outside monitors.


4. (C) Regarding the "institutional" barrier, Haggag said
that the presidential election had highlighted the deep rift
between Egypt's judiciary and the other branches of
government. Haggag described a judiciary determined to
demonstrate its independence from the executive and resist
any suggestions as to how it should do its job monitoring
elections. Letting in outsiders, with the implication that
the judges weren't up to the job, was particularly offensive.
ECPO Counselor responded that we were convinced that if the
GOE leadership recognized the need to invite observers, it
would be able to overcome any legal and institutional hurdles.

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Snubbing the Europeans
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5. (C) Haggag cited a recent visit by European officials as
illustrative of the sensitivity of the GOE regarding
elections issues. A delegation from the European Commission
recently visited Cairo to assess the recent presidential
elections and explore the possibility of mounting an observer
operation for the upcoming parliamentary ballot. Haggag said
that the EU had ruffled feathers by sending in the delegation
before receiving MFA approval. He acknowledged that the
local EC Delegation had informed the MFA of the planned visit
and the MFA had failed to respond (MFA standard operating
procedure when it wants to say "no" without actually saying
it). Choosing to take silence as assent, the EU brought its
team anyway so, with typical pique, the GOE cancelled all the
visitors' official appointments.

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Predicting the Parliamentary Election Outcome
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7. (C) Haggag said he thought it was very unlikely that any
party other than the NDP would in the upcoming elections gain
the 5% of parliamentary seats required to field a candidate
in the 2011 presidential elections. He said that "some
people" had suggested manipulating the vote so that at least
one opposition party cleared the threshhold, but that such
maneuvers would cause problems within the NDP. Any seat for
an opposition party means one less seat for the NDP, he
explained, and finding NDP members willing to sacrifice their
seats - and the perks and patronage that go with them - was
impossible.


8. (C) Haggag argued that this was not the result the GOE
was looking for, and pointed to language Mubarak used in
campaign speeches calling for a parliament that represented
the views of all Egyptians. He said that the GOE's response
to the lack of significant opposition party representation in
a virtually all-NDP legislature would be to move swiftly
after the parliamentary election to amend the constitution.
Under the new constitution, the next parliamentary elections
would take place with a proportional representation rather
than single-member constituency system. Haggag said that
Egypt had such a system in the 1980s and it resulted in much
more significant opposition representation in parliament.

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Goodbye to Ayman Nour?
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9. (C) Unprompted, Haggag cautioned ECPO Counselor against
assuming that El Ghad Party leader Ayman Nour's surprisingly
strong second-place showing would translate into success for
El Ghad during the parliamentary vote or even that Nour would
be able to keep his own parliamentary seat. While
acknowledging that the fractious and desperately underfunded
party would find it hard to win a significant number of
seats, ECPO Counselor suggested that Nour's popularity among
his constituents virtually assured his reelection in a fair
ballot.

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Radio Sawa
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10. (C) Haggag complained vehemently and at length about
appropriations language linking disbursement of U.S.
assistance to GOE cooperation on Radio Sawa. He argued that
the U.S. was pushing for greater conditionality on the
assistance program and then, when the two sides agree on
conditions (as with the financial sector MOU),Congress adds
new unilateral conditions and the admininstration does
nothing about it. Haggag was uncharacteristically agitated
on this point and said that he had tried (and failed) to
insert language in the President's stump speech thanking the
USG for its decades of development aid and calling for the
assistance relationship to be restructed "in the spirit of
partnership" (code for "no conditionality").

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Comment
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11. (C) Haggag is close to Gamal and his comments accurately
reflect Gamal's perspective. We do not know that, in
outlining how the GOE might replace its constituency-based
parliamentary ballot with a proportional representation
system, he was consciously floating a trial balloon. We
would not be surprised, however, if the GOE made such an
announcement to defuse any outcry, domestic or international,
over a lopsided parliamentary election. End comment.


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JONES