EGYPT'S PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN, UPDATE #3

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 006654 SIPDIS NSC STAFF FOR POUNDS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/29/2015 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EG SUBJECT: EGYPT'S PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN, UPDATE #3 REF: A. CAIRO 6539 ¶B. CAIRO 6448 Classified by ECPO Counselor John Desrocher for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) As Egypt's first campaign for the direct election of the president heads into its final week, the political landscape remains largely unchanged. There are no indications that the NDP's lock on political power is easing. Neither of President Mubarak's two leading challengers is making much headway. The Muslim Brotherhood continues to posture and jockey for position. An emboldened and empowered civil society remains critical of the GOE-dominated process. End summary. -------------- NDP Juggernaut Rolls On -------------- ¶2. (C) President Mubarak has continued to dominate the campaign. One notable development has been the low profile kept by NDP old guard figures like Safwat Sherif and Kamal Al Shazly. By virtue of their key party leadership roles (Secretary General and Deputy SG, respectively),both men were seated prominently at Mubarak's campaign launch on August 17, but since then have been virtually silent. Speculation about the NDP's effort to reinvent itself as a moderate agent of change has gathered steam with rumors that Trade Minister Rashid has been pegged to replace Ahmed Nazif as Prime Minister in the new post-election cabinet. ¶3. (C) Mubarak has so far avoided any missteps that would diminish him in the eyes of voters, but at least one odd moment occurred in the Upper Egyptian town of Minya when a local popular poet asked the president: --"Do you remember Mohammad, with whom you shook hands when you last visited here to inaugurate the new road?" --Appearing to improvise, the President said that he did remember Mohammad, and asked the poet about his interest in Mohammad. --The poet replied "A few days ago, scores of security men suddenly arrested Mohammad and took him away." --The President, trying to make a joke in this now awkward situation, offered that perhaps Mohammad had been arrested for meeting with the president. --The poet wondered if this meant that people who met with the President would get in trouble. --"Watch out for yourself, man," advised Mubarak. Several media commentators have used this anecdote as evidence of Mubarak's sense of humor, diplomacy, and quick thinking. -------------- Is the Wafd Wallowing? -------------- ¶4. (C) By contrast, Wafd candidate No'man Gom'a has not impressed. The most remarkable aspects of Gom'a's campaign are his faux pas. After seeming to court the MB, he then angered them by saying their political aspirations were illegitimate. More recently, unaware that his microphone was on, and annoyed by a particularly boisterous supporter, he ordered his security detail to "Shut that son of a b -------------- up or I will kick his a--!" -------------- The Ghad Gamely Marches On -------------- ¶5. (C) Ayman Nour has so far avoided any such missteps, but his ability to reach a broad swath of voters remains limited by his relatively meager resources. The Ghad's foreign relations advisor Hisham Kassem (protect) told us that a shortage of funds is seriously hampering Nour's ability to get his message out. -------------- MB Still Cagey -------------- ¶6. (C) The MB's fortunes continue to attract attention. The recent release from detention of Mohammad Ezzat, a senior MB figure and relative hardliner who was jailed after the MB's spring demonstrations, has prompted a new round of speculation of a "deal" between the GOE and the MB. Ezzat's release means that only one senior MB figure, the relative pragmatist Essam El-Erian (who had announced from jail that he planned to run for president),remains in detention, along with several hundred lower ranking members. Apparently seeking to quash this speculation, the MB's Deputy Supreme Guide Mohammad Habib gave a lengthy interview to the Nasserist paper Al Araby in which he denounced any possibility of a deal with the GOE/NDP, but left the door open, in the view of some analysts, to an alliance with Ayman Nour's Ghad party. -------------- - The Rest of the Opposition: the Seven Dwarves -------------- - ¶7. (C) Of the remaining seven legal opposition candidates, none have done anything to attract serious attention. The most remarkable candidate, perhaps, is the nonagenarian Ahmed Sabahy of the Umma Party who continues to attract ridicule for his belief in astrology, his firmly-held view that Egyptian males should once again wear the fez, and his admission that President Mubarak is the candidate best qualified to rule Egypt. None of the other six candidates has thus far managed to outshine Sabahy. -------------- Election Commission Still Not Winning Friends -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The on-again, off-again threat of lawsuits by Egyptian civil society activists seeking access to the polling stations to monitor the September 7 election now appears to be back on. The State Council Administrative Court announced on August 28 that it would rule on September 3 concerning multiple lawsuits filed by civil society groups against the Presidential Election Commission (PEC). In a separate development, the PEC announced that it had detected no campaign violations by the media. ¶9. (C) In its rare public statements, the PEC has continued to stress that "full judicial supervision" of the polling stations will ensure the free, fair, and transparent nature of the elections. The Judges' Club, however, has held fast not to announce its decision about supervising or boycotting the polls until the membership votes in an extraordinary meeting scheduled for September 2 in Cairo. Comment: The judges' decision, however it goes, will be a major development in the election process. End comment. -------------- Domestic Monitors Undeterred -------------- ¶10. (SBU) In an interim report on media coverage of the first week of the campaign, the Cairo Institute for Human Rights Studies (CIHRS),headed by long-time activist and Embassy contact Bahey Eddin Hassan, lauded the fact that "media performance is improving" compared to coverage of past campaign/elections. CIHRS's survey considered four leading state-owned TV stations, two independent channels, and 17 newspapers (both independent and state-owned). Notwithstanding its generally favorably review of the media coverage per se, CIHRS argued that the "willful and systematic undermining" of politics in Egypt for more than 50 years, which has gravely weakened any opposition to the ruling party, has meant that the significance of the improved media environment remains unclear. ¶11. (SBU) CIHRS's report noted that government TV channels, which are directly controlled by the Ministry of Information, have so far displayed a notable evenhandedness. CIHRS also noted, however, that the ban on direct criticisms by one candidate of another, as well as the unwillingness of the NDP to agree to debates, as requested by Ayman Nour, had diminished the value of the improved atmosphere on the airwaves. ¶12. (C) CIHRS found that the government controlled press had shown greater bias towards President Mubarak. The independent press, by contrast, especially Al Masry Al Youm and Nahdat Masr (both of which have tiny circulations compared to the government controlled press),have provided "excellent" and "unprecedented" coverage and analysis of the campaign. Comment: The CIHRS assessment generally tracks with post's assessment of the evolving media environment. The past 18 months have witnessed some positive developments in terms of media freedom, but it remains to be seen if this freedom will lead to any political change in the short to medium term. End comment. ¶13. (C) Finally, it appears that the civil society coalitions aiming to monitor the elections have now grown to at least five, of varying size and effectiveness. Their training and organizing continues, but they are hampered because the exact location of polling stations remain to be determined. The PEC has noted that Egypt's 54,000 customary polling places will be combined into approximately 9,000, to permit judicial supervision of the polls. This consolidation should also benefit the domestic monitors, but only if they have the information in a timely fashion to permit them to plan their monitoring strategy. Visit Embassy Cairo's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/cairo You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. JONES