EGYPTIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN, UPDATE #2

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 006539

SIPDIS

NSC STAFF FOR POUNDS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/24/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EG
SUBJECT: EGYPTIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN, UPDATE #2

REF: CAIRO 6448

Classified by A/DCM Michael Corbin for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).

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Summary
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1. (C) One week into the presidential campaign, the
Presidential Election Commission (PEC) is drawing criticism
for a lack of transparency. A local domestic monitoring
coalition has publicly accused the PEC of obstructing Egypt's
effort to conduct a free, fair, and transparent presidential
election. A visiting delegation from the International
Republican Institute (IRI) separately told us that the PEC's
self-imposed isolation is "unprecedented" in their collective
experience. The PEC must shortly issue its regulations for
the actual conduct of the election. The publication of these
regulations should clarify the situation, and perhaps
strengthen the PEC's credibility. The three leading
candidates (Mubarak, Nour, and Gom'a) continue to receive
considerable media coverage, which many GOE critics say is
skewed in Mubarak's favor. End summary.

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PEC to Egypt: We've Got Everything Under Control
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2. (C) In an August 22 press conference, the National
Campaign for Monitoring Elections (NCME) complained that the
PEC continues to stonewall the NCME and other aspirant
monitors who are seeking guarantees that domestic monitors
will have unfettered access to polling stations. As noted
reftel, PEC Chair Mamduh Mara'i's statement--that domestic
monitors (from civil society groups) would not have access to
the polling stations--sparked criticism from civil society
and threat of a lawsuit by these groups against Mara'i. The
groups have, in fact, not formally proceeded with their
lawsuit against Mara'i (reported reftel) apparently out of
fear that this might spark GOE retaliation, per the new law
governing presidential elections.


3. (SBU) The PEC's legal existence derives from a new law
("Law 174/2005") "on the organization of the election of the
President of the Republic." The law empowers the PEC
(composed of five judges and five eminent public figures) to
administer all aspects of the presidential election. In
addition, the law stipulates that the PEC members are immune
from prosecution or lawsuits, except for gross criminal
actions. Article 46 of the law states that "anyone who
insults the chairman or one the members ... during or because
of the exercise of their functions, shall be punished with
imprisonment for up to two years and a fine ... or one of
these two punishments."


4. (C) The PEC has yet to issue its regulations for voting
day, but there has been speculation that the PEC--in keeping
with the practices that have regulated previous Egyptian
polls--will not allow people other than voters, poll workers,
candidate/party agents, and judges to have access to polling
places. The domestic monitoring groups are already making
plans for a worst case scenario. If they are not given
permission to enter the polls as monitors, they will use
powers-of-attorney from candidate agents to access to the
polls. This tactic worked with some success during the
parliamentary elections in 2000 when domestic monitors were
barred from the polling stations.


5. (SBU) Also on August 22, PEC spokesman Osama Attawiya,
in a report carried by the Kuwait News Agency (KUNA),
rejected international observers playing a direct role in
monitoring the polls during the September 7 election.
Attawiya told KUNA that the PEC would guarantee "full
judicial supervision" of the presidential election and that
international monitoring of the polling places would
"compromise the dignity of the Egyptian judiciary."

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IRI Has Never Seen Anything Like the PEC
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6. (C) An IRI delegation currently visiting Egypt (protect)
told us on August 22 that the most striking thing they had
observed so far was the "absolute isolation and stonewalling"
of the Presidential Election Commission in response to
requests for information from both domestic and international
groups about the upcoming poll. The IRI team, whose members
have participated in monitoring over 40 international
elections, said that the self-imposed isolation of the
Egyptian PEC was unprecedented in their experience. Emboff
and USAID staff have also sought to reach out to key PEC
staff, to discuss the possibility of technical assistance to
the PEC funded by USAID, but after an introductory meeting,
the PEC responded with "don't call us, we'll call you."


7. (C) Sociologist and civil society activist Saad Eddin
Ibrahim said that the PEC's isolation and apparent lack of
accountability was leading Egyptians "to look back to the
good old days when the Interior Ministry ran elections."
Ibrahim ruefully observed that "at least you weren't
threatened with jail for criticizing Interior." Ibrahim and
other activists have complained that rather than increasing
the transparency of the presidential election process, the
PEC has only increased the secrecy and lack of accountability
surrounding the process.

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Mubarak Reaches out to the Hinterland, via Video Links
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8. (SBU) In other developments, and reflecting both the
relative sophistication and deep pocket of the Mubarak
campaign, the President has been reaching out to the NDP
faithful in key governorates outside of Cairo by conducting a
series of video conferences. The video links, which have so
far included Port Said, Qalubiya, Aswan, and Assiyut, have
allowed Mubarak to present messages customized to local
concerns. For example, in his address to the citizens of
Port Said, at the northern end of the Suez Canal, Mubarak
said that he is considering a renewal of Port Said's "Free
Zone" status, which was revoked in 2002. (Note: A
knife-wielding man attacked Mubarak, and was killed by his
security detail, in Port Said in 1999. The city's loss of
its duty-free status, and the subsequent loss of jobs, was
widely seen by Egyptian conspiracy theorists as an act of
vengeance by the GOE for the assassination attempt. End
note.)

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1000 Factories, 1 Million Acres, 4 Million Jobs
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9. (SBU) Mubarak continues to hit his talking points,
especially his ambitious economic development goals, which
include creating 1000 new factories, reclaiming one million
acres of desert for agricultural expansion, and creating four
million new jobs. He has also stated that he is working to
secure an FTA with the United States. There is widespread
skepticism about Mubarak's economic promises, but this
skepticism is complemented by a growing realization that
Mubarak's promises will give the Egyptian public a yard stick
by which to judge his future performance.

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The Wafd's New Slogan: "We've Been Suffocated!"
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10 (SBU) "Kifaya" ("Enough!") embodied the frustrations of
the opposition to Mubarak during the first half of 2005, but
now the Wafd Party's new slogan "Itkhana'na" ("We've been
suffocated!") seems to have captured the mood of the
anti-Mubarak opposition. Although "Itkhana'na" does not seem
to be boosting the fortunes of Wafd candidate No'man Gom'a in
his race for second place against Ayman Nour, some observers
argue that Wafd Deputy Chair, and eminence grise, Mahmoud
Abaza, has his eye firmly fixed on the parliamentary
elections. A poor presidential election showing by the
uncharismatic Gom'a might clear the way for Abaza to take
over the party leadership in the run-up to the parliamentary
elections. With the public responding to Wafd's
"Itkhana'na," Abaza might emerge, by dint of Wafd
parliamentary gains, as the de facto leader of the opposition.

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Comment
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11. (C) The consensus here remains that the campaign
conditions (including resources, media access, and the law)
are overwhelmingly in Mubarak's favor. (Note: Egyptian
campaign monitors are set to issue a study on August 25
documenting the way that coverage of the Mubarak campaign has
dominated Egypt's media. End note.) The PEC has, so far,
not established itself as a positive force in the
presidential election process. It may still be able to
remedy this problem when it issues its definitive ruling on
access by outside monitors to the polling stations.
Mubarak's advantages go far beyond those of an ordinary
incumbent, and yet even his fiercest critics concede that we
are witnessing a sea change in the process by which Egypt's
leader is determined. Saad Eddin Ibrahim, for example, told
us that it was simply remarkable to see an Egyptian president
asking the citizenry to vote for him. End comment.

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JONES