EGYPT: DEVELOPMENTS IN THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 005592 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/21/2015 TAGS: PGOV KDEM EG SUBJECT: EGYPT: DEVELOPMENTS IN THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE REF: A. CAIRO 5272 ¶B. CAIRO 5084 ¶C. CAIRO 3424 ¶D. CAIRO 2536 Classified by Acting DCM Michael Corbin for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Egypt's leftist Tagammu' Party, which holds six seats in the People's Assembly, announced on July 19 that it would not field Khalid Mohieldin, or any other candidate, in Egypt's first competitive presidential election, anticipated, though not yet formally announced, for September 7. A spokesman for the Kifaya protest movement subsequently told the media his group would call for an all-out boycott of the presidential poll. Prominent dissident Saad Eddin Ibrahim (SEI) and feminist author Nawal Saadawi also recently announced that they were abandoning their symbolic candidacies. Meanwhile, Ghad Party leader Ayman Nour is moving forward with his own campaign, as are several decidedly marginal candidates. Safwat Sherif, Secretary-General of the ruling NDP, told the press on July SIPDIS 20 that President Mubarak would not announce his decision on whether to run for another six year term until after the commission begins accepting official candidate applications, sometime after July 24. The impact of the withdrawal of candidates Mohieldin, SEI, and Saadawi is more symbolic than practical, but highlights the dearth of credible contenders in this year's presidential race. The resonance of Kifaya's call for an all-out boycott has yet to be determined, but reflects the depth of alienation and distrust of the GOE among many in Egypt's opposition. Only by taking early and concrete steps to demonstrate commitment to the integrity of this year's electoral process can the GOE hope to counter the skeptics and convince the doubtful among Egypt's voters to participate in the September presidential poll. End summary. -------------- Tagammu' Pulls Out -------------- ¶2. (C) After months of vacillation, Egypt's leftist Tagammu' Party announced on July 19 that it would not field Honorary Chairman Khalid Mohieldin as a presidential candidate. Mohieldin is a nationally respected figure, best known for his role as ONE of the "free officers" who conspired with Gamal Abdel Nasser to depose King Farouk in 1952. Though respected, Mohieldin is 84 and in frail HEALTH and his old school leftist politics put him out of step with most of the nation. Announcing Tagammu's decision at a July 18 press conference, party leader Rif'at Said stated that the party's decision reflected its doubts that the GOE intended to provide for a free, fair, and transparent election. Repeating a line he had used earlier in the year, Said said that the party did not want to be "bit actors" in a scripted play. ¶3. (C) Although Said told reporters that the party would "boycott" the presidential election, his use of the term referred to the party's intention not to field a candidate and did not constitute a call on party members not to vote. Said held open the possibility that the Tagammu' might endorse a presidential candidate from the opposition Wafd or Nasserist parties, with which it regularly coordinates statements and positions. However, most observers believe Wafd and the Nasserists, themselves lacking strong candidates, will also sit out the race. -------------- Kifaya Calls for Boycott -------------- ¶4. (C) Though Tagammu's Said stopped short of urging party supporters not to vote in the presidential election, George Ishaq, a leader of the Kifaya protest movement (ref A),went further on July 20, telling reporters that it was a "national duty" not to vote. Ishaq told the British Guardian newspaper he hoped to see "a popular movement against President Mubarak...as well as political corruption and the regime's failure at all levels." Explaining the call for the boycott, Ishaq said that citizens' participation would make them accomplices in a disingenuous GOE attempt to present the contest as a genuinely competitive democratic process. In a July 21 conversation, Abul Ela Madi, a founding member of Kifaya, confirmed to poloff that the call for a boycott was an official Kifaya position. -------------- SEI, Saadawi End Symbolic Candidacies -------------- ¶5. (C) Prominent democracy advocate Saad Eddin Ibrahim (SEI) and controversial feminist author Nawal Saadawi announced on July 18 and 19 respectively that they were withdrawing their bids for the presidency. Neither SEI nor Saadawi are affiliated with political parties and neither stood any chance of obtaining the 250 endorsements from elected members of the legislature required to stand as independent candidates. SEI, who announced his intent to run in the fall of 2004, has been open about the symbolic nature of his candidacy but took credit in a conversation with the Guardian for "breaking the wall of fear" and encouraging others to challenge Mubarak. Though acquitted and vindicated by Egypt's Supreme Court in 2003, SEI's national standing has never recovered from the media's campaigns against him, particularly in several yellow tabloids, where he has been portrayed as a craven traitor who sold his services as an agent-provocateur to the U.S. and Israel. Saadawi, whose Marxist-feminist writings previously prompted lawsuits from Islamists who described her as an atheist and apostate, has no constituency in Egypt outside of a tiny circle of leftist intellectuals. -------------- Left in the Race -------------- ¶6. (C) Ghad Party leader Ayman Nour, whose criminal forgery trial is adjourned until September 25 (ref B),remains in the race. In recent comments to the media, he joined criticism of the GOE's selection of September 7 as the date for the presidential election, asserting the GOE was deliberately allowing opponents as little time as possible to prepare and compete. Nour has also long maintained that the criminal case against him had been manufactured by the GOE in order to sabotage his political career and undermine him as an opponent. While the adjournment of the trial until after the presidential election effectively freed Nour up to run his presidential campaign, many of his supporters complained that the pending charges left him and his campaign hobbled by uncertainty. ¶7. (C) Another candidates who has declared his intent to run is Talaat Sadat, a member of parliament and nephew of President Anwar Sadat. Sadat claims he would be the candidate of the Liberal Party, but party officials have reportedly disavowed him. Sadat appears to enjoy little if any public support. The very obscure Afaf Zayyat of the Social Solidarity Party, Fawzy Ghazzal of the Egypt 2000 Party, and the 90 year old Ahmad Sabahy of the Umma Party are all reportedly preparing to enter the race. -------------- -------------- Mubarak Announcement Linked to Registration Process -------------- -------------- ¶8. (C) The Presidential Elections Commission, the ten-member body charged with overseeing the election, will announce on July 24 the dates candidates may present their applications for registration for the race. The commission will review candidate applications to confirm that they qualify under the new Presidential Elections Law (either as nominees of parties recognized before May 2005 or as independents who have secured no less than 250 endorsements from elected members of national and provincial legislatures -- a threshold no candidate is expected to cross this year). ¶9. (C) In remarks to the media on July 20, Safwat Sherif, Secretary-General of the ruling National Democratic Party, SIPDIS said that President Mubarak will announce his decision on whether or not he will seek a fifth six-year term "at the time he deems appropriate" but not before the presidential elections commission sets the date for candidates to put forward their applications. Though no official announcement has yet been made, all expect Mubarak to run again. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶10. (C) The impact of the withdrawal of candidates Mohieldin, SEI, and Saadawi is more symbolic than practical. None would have posed a serious electoral challenge to Mubarak, indeed only Mohieldin, as honorary chairman of the Tagammu' Party, would have legally qualified to run. Their withdrawals nonetheless highlight the dearth of credible contenders in this year's presidential race (ref D). Of remaining candidates, the Ghad Party leader is the clear standout, with national name recognition and a small but committed core of activists and capable political operatives in his camp. Nour's name recognition cuts both ways, as many only know him based on unflattering media accounts of his arrest and trial on forgery charges. The resonance of Kifaya's call for an all-out boycott has yet to be determined. As discussed in ref A, Kifaya has proven a durable but small and eclectic grouping of activists united by their opposition to the Mubarak regime. While its active cadres are relatively few in number, Kifaya's anti-regime slogans, focusing on alleged GOE corruption, autocracy, and mismanagment, have resonated with the public. The group's call to boycott the presidential poll, rather than support Mubarak opponents, reflects the depth of alienation and distrust of the GOE among many in Egypt's political opposition. ¶11. (C) Only by taking public steps to demonstrate that the GOE is committed to the integrity of the electoral process can the GOE hope to counter the skeptics who are trying to persuade the larger population not to participate in the September presidential poll. The GOE's reaction to the calls for a boycott is difficult to gauge. The old "red lines" in Egyptian politics are eroding. There are certainly elements in the GOE who yearn for the old days when the likes of SEI and the Kifaya leadership would have been summarily locked up or worse, but others in the leadership appear to understand that the genie is out of the bottle and there can be no going back on political reform and democratic opening. End comment. Visit Embassy Cairo's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/cairo You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. JONES