EGYPT: AYMAN NOUR'S TRIAL POSTPONED TO SEPTEMBER,

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 005084 SIPDIS NSC STAFF FOR POUNDS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/06/2015 TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM EG SUBJECT: EGYPT: AYMAN NOUR'S TRIAL POSTPONED TO SEPTEMBER, CLEARING WAY FOR PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN REF: A. CAIRO 4981 ¶B. CAIRO 4917 Classified by ECPO Counselor John Desrocher for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: At the third session of opposition leader Ayman Nour's forgery trial, the lawyer for defendant number three, Ayman Ismail Hassan, reiterated his client's retraction of his confession, the prosecution claimed to have a videotape of Nour advising a legal client to fake a torture injury, and the defense team motioned for more time to prepare their case. Judges granted the motion, adjourning the proceedings until September 25. The long delay apparently clears the way for Nour to pursue his presidential campaign in advance of the September 7 election. Assuming the GOE does not find another technical reason to disqualify him from the race, Nour will still face an uphill battle in posing a credible challenge to Mubarak. End summary. ¶2. (C) The atmosphere at the third session of opposition leader Ayman Nour's forgery trial was considerably calmer than in previous sessions (reftels),particularly because Nour had urged his supporters to "boycott" the proceedings in protest of security forces' "excesses" during the first sessions. Consequently, although large orange "Justice for Ayman Nour" banners still hung in front of the courthouse, only a relatively small number of supporters showed up on July 6. Poloff, as well as diplomats from the U.K., the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, and Australia, attended the session. ¶3. (SBU) The lawyer for defendant number three, Ayman Ismail Hassan, reiterated his client's retraction of his confession, first presented at the June 30 session (ref A),and again stated that he had been coerced by prosecutors into confessing and agreeing to testify against Nour. The defense also asked the court to provide personal protection for Ismail, who, his lawyer claimed, is in fear for his safety. Speaking to reporters after the session, a member of Nour's defense team claimed that without the testimony of defendant number three, the government's case against Nour would collapse. ¶4. (SBU) The prosecution claimed to have a videotape showing Nour advising a client at his private law practice to make marks on his own back so that he could claim he was tortured. The prosecution said the tape proved Nour's lack of integrity and his "willingness to commit forgery." It was unclear who made the tape and when it was made. ¶5. (SBU) The defense team asked the court for a delay in the proceedings, in order to allow more time to prepare their case. After a short recess, the judges announced they were adjourning the trial until September 25. ¶6. (C) Comment: The trial's adjournment, with Nour still released on his own recognizance, apparently clears the way for him to pursue his presidential campaign in advance of Egypt's first direct, competitive presidential election on September 7. Nour, as head of a licensed political party, and without a conviction, should qualify to run - although his candidacy will still have to be approved by the newly formed presidential elections commission, which could theoretically find another technical reason to object to his candidacy. ¶7. (C) Comment continued: While Nour is the best known, best organized, and best-resourced of the declared opponents to President Mubarak, he still faces a gargantuan task in posing a credible challenge. As a support vehicle, Nour's Ghad Party, riven by internal fractures and sapped of energy and resources following Nour's late January arrest, can hardly hope to match up to the extensive patronage networks and massive largesse of the ruling National Democratic Party. Moreover, Nour's name recognition could be as much of a drag as an asset on his campaign, as many in the Egyptian street know him only on the basis of the unfavorable coverage he and his legal case have received in the state media. End comment. Visit Embassy Cairo's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/cairo You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. CORBIN