EGYPT: ANOTHER BLOW TO THE GHAD PARTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 004264 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/06/2015 TAGS: PGOV KDEM EG SUBJECT: EGYPT: ANOTHER BLOW TO THE GHAD PARTY REF: A. CAIRO 3840 ¶B. CAIRO 2506 ¶C. CAIRO 2285 ¶D. CAIRO 2254 ¶E. CAIRO 1926 ¶F. 04 CAIRO 8355 Classified by ECPO Counselor John Desrocher for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) The Ghad Party, the beleaguered liberal/secular political party founded by Ayman Nour, has suffered another severe setback with the late May resignation of Secretary-General Mona Makram Ebeid. Ebeid, a SIPDIS widely-respected figure, had lent both stature and substance to the fledgling party. Her departure compounds the woes of a party which, after a heady and optimistic launch last fall (ref F),is now beset with harassment and intimidation (ref A),riven by factions, and sapped of resources, direction, and momentum at a time when it should be preparing to field candidates in the fall's parliamentary elections. Party leader Ayman Nour is set to go on trial on June 28 on criminal forgery charges - in a case he and his supporters maintain was manufactured by political enemies within the GOE bent on derailing the Ghad. With Ebeid's departure, and Nour's imminent trial, it is difficult to be sanguine about the Ghad Party's prospects. End summary. -------------- Another Blow -------------- ¶2. (C) On May 28, Mona Makram Ebeid, Secretary-General of the Ghad Party, announced her resignation. The move constitutes a severe blow to a party which has been reeling and on the verge of implosion since the late January arrest of party leader Ayman Nour and his subsequent indictment on criminal forgery charges. Ebeid is a Coptic academic, former Member of Parliament, and daughter of a prestigious family with a prominent role in Egypt's historic nationalist movement. Ebeid was a founding member of the Ghad Party and had lent it considerable stature, particularly since she was elected Secretary-General at the first party conference in November SIPDIS ¶2004. In a recent meeting with U.S. officials, Interior Minister Habib Adly could barely conceal his glee at Ebeid's departure, asserting that she had "realized her association" with Nour and his party was "damaging her distinguished reputation." ¶3. (C) In a June 5 interview with the tabloid al-Osboa, Ebeid asserted that her primary reason for leaving was her assessment that the party's internal rifts had become impossible because of the presence of "opportunists who do not really believe in the party's liberal agenda." Though apparently reluctant to criticize Ayman Nour in harsh terms, she opined that his eagerness to cast party recruitment nets widely, rather than forming a smaller core, had led to the inclusion in the party of too many diverse personalities pursuing their own agendas. ¶4. (C) In a recent conversation with poloff, Ghad Party Vice President for foreign relations Hisham Kassem (protect) expressed frustration and disdain at Ebeid's resignation. "She picked the worst possible time to leave," he opined, noting that party leader Ayman Nour's trial is a matter of weeks away. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶5. (C) The Ghad's cohesiveness and potential longevity was uncertain even during its brief honeymoon in late 2004, but the January arrest and subsequent indictment of Nour on criminal forgery charges put intense pressure on the party, dividing its leadership into factions and prompting defections, including most recently and damagingly, that of Ebeid. ¶6. (C) Many credible observers believe the hobbling, if not the actual destruction, of the party has been an objective of hardliners within ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) for some time. According to multiple accounts, Nour infuriated NDP strongmen Kamal el-Shazly and Safwat El-Sherif when he refused to join the consensus of opposition parties, hammered out at the "national dialogue" of political parties chaired by Sherif, that the issue of constitutional reform could be deferred until after the 2005 elections. Ironically, (or purposefully),Mubarak announced his constitutional reform initiative only weeks after the opposition parties caved in on their own constitutional reform demands at the urging of Sherif and Shazly. ¶7. (C) Nour's late January arrest triggered an immediate crisis in the party, with rival factions emerging - some taking advantage of the vacuum to jockey for position and others bickering furiously over whether U.S./international support should be welcomed or rejected. Nour's wife, herself a party office holder, and other party contacts asserted that those factions pushing for "a rejection of foreign interference" were doing so at the urging of Egyptian State Security, which has allegedly taken a close interest in the party's internal affairs. Ghad Party contacts also accuse State Security and the ruling NDP of instigating sustained harassment and intimidation of party leadership and supporters (charges detailed in ref A). ¶8. (C) With Nour's trial set to begin at the end of June, it is difficult to be sanguine about the party's prospects. Nour and his supporters continue to insist that he is innocent of the forgery charges. The forged signatures on the party's licensing documents, Nour and supporters maintain, were placed there by NDP/GOE operatives who had penetrated the party and Nour's private law office for the express purpose of sabotage. Embassy contacts, including prominent reform advocates disagree sharply about Nour and his bone fides. While he has some support among reformers and on the street, many others dismiss him as a slick opportunist. ¶9. (C) Even most of those quick to disdain Nour, however, generally add that they believe the case against him was instigated by his political enemies in the government. At a minimum, most agree, Nour is facing a politically-motivated and selective prosecution aimed at destroying his reputation and taking him out of the game. Though the Ghad Party's saga is not yet complete, many interpret its sinking fortunes as a cautionary tale about what happens when political parties and their leaders become too aggressive about competing for power in Egypt. End comment. Visit Embassy Cairo's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/cairo You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. GRAY #4264