ARREST OF SENIOR MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD OFFICIAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 003941 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/24/2015 TAGS: PGOV KISL EG SUBJECT: ARREST OF SENIOR MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD OFFICIAL FURTHER ESCALATES "SHOWDOWN" WITH GOE REF: A. CAIRO 3755 ¶B. CAIRO 3424 Classified by A/DCM Michael Corbin for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) The GOE arrested on May 22 Mahmoud Ezzat, Secretary-General of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood (MB). Ezzat SIPDIS is the most senior MB official to be arrested in at least a decade. His arrest comes in the context of an increasingly sharp and sustained confrontation between the government and the MB, as the former frets over unprecedented pressures - internal and external - to reform, and the latter adopts both more assertive street tactics and a more carefully tailored public message playing up reformist rhetoric and playing down traditional Islamist slogans (ref A). Ezzat's arrest, and the MB's harsh rhetoric in response, suggest attitudes on both sides are continuing to harden. End summary. -------------- Same Net, Bigger Fish -------------- ¶2. (C) As predicted in ref A, the standoff between the GOE and the Muslim Brotherhood (MB),the illegal but partially tolerated group which claims to speak for the majority of Egyptians, has continued to escalate. The May 22 arrest of Dr. Mahmoud Ezzat, the MB's Secretary-General and second-in-command, along with six "key" MB figures in several governorates, appeared to bring the confrontation to a new level. Ezzat is the most senior MB figure to be arrested in at least a decade. ¶3. (C) Ezzat's arrest also follows the May 6 arrest of prominent MB spokesman Essam Erian, who was reportedly preparing to announce an (illegal) campaign for the Presidency. Hundreds of other MB members, up to 3000 by the group's count, have been arrested in the past six weeks, although there have also been reports of subsequent mass-releases. Independent media reports estimate about 800 in custody from the current crackdown. ¶4. (C) Until recently, the GOE and the MB appeared to have an unwritten understanding that periodic arrests would exclude the group's senior echelon, presumably in exchange for some level of restraint on the part of the MB. As discussed reftel, that understanding began to unravel, and tensions with the group began to flare, earlier this spring, as the MB shifted gears and began to defy bans on public demonstrations and step up its demands for "political reform" and "freedom of association" in place of its traditional Islamist slogans. -------------- The GOE's Complaint -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The pro-government daily Al-Ahram printed highlights of the GOE's legal complaint against Ezzat and other MB defendants (which, according to the daily al-Hayat, is being applied against 700 co-defendants in case number 604/2005). The complaint accuses defendants of: -- Acting to create chaos and instigate the masses; -- Calling for civil disobedience; -- Creating chaos to embarrass the state; -- Encouraging people to boycott the (May 25) referendum; -- Collecting funds for a banned organization; -- Recruiting new members, especially among those of limited income; -- Printing large quantities of leaflets in support of these activities. -------------- Campus Connections (?) -------------- ¶6. (C) Al-Ahram also speculated that Ezzat's arrest had been prompted by his participation in several recent demonstrations at university campuses, during which groups of faculty members (to the chagrin of university administrations) had threatened to refuse to correct students' annual exams as an act of "civil disobedience" in solidarity with Islamist faculty colleagues swept up in the GOE's recent arrests of MB members. As noted in ref B, State Security maintains a large presence at most universities, apparently to keep Islamist students and faculty members in check. Their presence, generally seen as heavy-handed and even academically stifling, prompted unprecedented demonstrations by faculty members at several universities in April. -------------- Reactions - Satisfied and Defiant -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Commentators in several pro-government newspapers described Ezzat's arrest as a "crippling blow" and a "terrible shock" to the MB. One pro-GOE commentator interpreted the move as a "clear signal from the government that it would not be intimidated by the MB and was capable of taking action against them." ¶8. (SBU) If Ezzat's arrest shocked and crippled the MB, Supreme Guide Mahdy Akef did not reflect this during a May 22 appearance on the Arabic satellite channel Al-Arabiyya. He stated that the arrests would not dissuade the MB from continuing to demand reform and accused the GOE of losing direction. In particularly provocative language, Akef accused the GOE of arresting any MB members who might run for parliament this fall, claiming that the GOE lives in fear of the "landslide victory" the MB would achieve if allowed to compete in a free election. In remarks to the regional Arabic newspaper Al-Sharq al-Awsat, Akef described the GOE's arrests of MB members as proof that the regime "is weak and about to crumble" and said "let them arrest whoever they want - we have thousands of others who can run." -------------- Parliament Dust-Up -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Meanwhile, on May 23, Assistant Minister of Interior Ahmed Dia'addin appeared at parliament in response to interpolations filed by several of the 15 "independent" MPs affiliated with the MB in the People's Assembly to protest the arrests. The MB MPs harangued Dia'addin, asserting that the Minister himself should have appeared and accused the Ministry of Interior of mistreating MB detainees, denying them due process, and applying excessive emergency law powers in conducting their arrests. Dia'addin rejected the MPs complaints, asserting that the MB detainees were being processed and charged under the penal code, underlined that "no one is above the law," and said that demands that the Minister of Interior himself appear were unreasonable and intended to "divert the Minister's attention from addressing real problems" and safeguarding the country. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶10. (C) While Ezzat's arrest represents an escalation in the current round of GOE-MB tensions, both sides still have more weapons at their disposal, should they wish to further intensify their dispute. As Supreme Guide Akef himself acknowledged, there are still plenty of MB members (including senior leaders) the GOE could arrest. The GOE could also close down MB central offices and those MB-affiliated organizations. It is not clear whether or how the MB could further flex their muscles, but Akef's most recent remarks - predicting an electoral landslide that would shame and humiliate the GOE (if the MB was allowed to compete),and asserting that the GOE is "about to crumble" suggest a hardening attitude - come in stark contrast from his remarks a week earlier (ref A) in which he asserted the group did not seek the downfall of the regime. For now, we believe the MB will stick to its strategy of "civil disobedience" and reformist rhetoric, but may also seek to ramp up its aggressive street tactics, with the attendant potential for violent clashes with police. End comment. Visit Embassy Cairo's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/cairo You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. GRAY