EGYPT POLITICS: OPPOSITION CALLS FOR BOYCOTT OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 003785 SIPDIS NSC STAFF FOR ABRAMS/POUNDS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/17/2015 TAGS: PGOV KDEM EG SUBJECT: EGYPT POLITICS: OPPOSITION CALLS FOR BOYCOTT OF REFERENDUM ON CONSTITUTION REF: A. CAIRO 3755 (NOTAL) ¶B. CAIRO 3495 (NOTAL) ¶C. CAIRO 3424 (NOTAL) Classified by Acting ECPO Counselor Al Magleby for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Leading opposition parties and other critics of the Egyptian parliament's proposal to amend Article 76 of the constitution (to allow for direct, competitive election of the president) are now calling for a boycott of the referendum the GOE will stage on May 25 to ratify the amendment. Those advocating a boycott contend that the amendment (as drafted) effectively keeps the door to competition closed by requiring too many endorsements from elected members of the legislature - which is overwhelmingly dominated by ruling NDP members. Ironically, three opposition parties who called for the boycott in a May 17 press conference stated that they were still studying the possibility of fielding presidential candidates. Opponents of the proposal have probably calculated that a boycott is the best available tactic, since the challenges of mounting a successful "no" campaign, especially in the time allotted, would be overwhelming. In the absence of a concerted "no" campaign, the amendment's approval through the referendum, albeit with a low voter turnout, is probably inevitable. End summary. -------------- Boycott -------------- ¶2. (C) A number of critics of parliament's final proposal to amend article 76 of the Egyptian constitution to allow for direct, competitive presidential elections (ref B) are now calling on citizens to boycott the referendum scheduled for May 25. (A constitutional amendment, now passed by the requisite 2/3 majority vote in parliament, must still be ratified in a public referendum to take effect.) The boycott effort, which first surfaced late last week, received a shot in the arm, or at least free publicity, when leaders of the Wafd, the Taggumu', and the Nasserist opposition parties announced at a May 17 press conference their agreement to issue a joint call on Egyptians to boycott the May 25 referendum. Explaining their reasoning in calling for the boycott, the party leaders noted that the referendum was taking place without judicial supervision and complained that the referendum did not give voters an opportunity to accept the principle of competitive presidential elections but reject the modalities of the current proposal. -------------- Keeping Options Open -------------- ¶3. (C) Ironically, while calling for a boycott of the referendum, the party leaders said they were still considering whether they would field presidential candidates. Tagammu's honorary chairman, the octogenarian Khaled Mohieldin, is expected by many observers to run (ref C) in spite of his stated reservations about the amendment. Tagammu' contacts have told us they see his campaign as an opportunity to introduce the party and its program to the electorate and drum up support for parliamentary candidates, while other regime opponents tell us Mohieldin is letting himself "be used" and worry that he is doing Mubarak a favor by offering himself up as a "viable" (but non-threatening) opponent. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶4. (C) In addition to these three opposition parties (each of which has token representation in the parliament, but dubious electoral viability) both Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood (ref A) and the Kifaya protest movement have also called for a boycott of the May 25 referendum. Opponents of the Article 76 amendment, as proposed, have chosen the obvious course by calling for a boycott of the referendum rather than trying to mobilize a "no" campaign. A "no" campaign would pose major logistical and organizational challenges, especially in the short time left before May 25. A "no" campaign could also confer legitimacy on a "yes" result (which is probably inevitable anyway as the ruling NDP is much better positioned to "turn out the vote" and even manipulate the results as necessary). By calling for a boycott, opponents can claim vindication with a low voter turnout (another likely inevitability). End comment. Visit Embassy Cairo's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/cairo You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. GRAY