DEMARCHE RESPONSE: SOMALIA IGAD PEACE SUPPORT

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRUSSELS 000672

SIPDIS

NOFORN

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/16/2015
TAGS: PREL SO EUN USEU BRUSSELS
SUBJECT: DEMARCHE RESPONSE: SOMALIA IGAD PEACE SUPPORT
MISSION

REF: STATE 25149

Classified By: PRMOFF MARC J. MEZNAR. REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) Summary: The EU is concerned about the possibility of
an outbreak of violence in Somalia in the event of an IGAD
deployment. They are also worried that IGAD lacks the
capacity to plan or run a peacekeeping operation. End
summary.


2. (C) On February 11, PRMOFF delivered reftel talking points
to Mark Boucey, DG DEV officer at the European Commission
(EC) temporarily covering Somalia. He said that an EU
delegation was currently in Nairobi and had plans to travel
to Mogadishu on February 13 to assess the feasibility of an
AU peacekeeping mission. The EC has been considering funds
for an AU mission in Somalia from its Africa Peace Facility
instrument. Developments related to a possible IGAD force
may alter this dynamic.


3. (C) Boucey said that the EC shared the U.S. concern about
front-line states being involved in any peacekeeping
operation -- IGAD or AU -- in Somalia. He said it was
unclear whether the IGAD plan had the AU blessing. EC
financial support for peacekeeping necessarily requires an
official request from the AU; the political support of the
Transitional Federal Government would also be an important
factor in the EU's decision-making process.


4. (C/NF) In a separate meeting on February 11 prior to
receipt of reftel, Christian Manahl, a member of the African
Task Force within the General Secretariat of the Council of
the EU, told POLOFF that the EU is concerned that violence
may erupt in Somalia "within days." Manahl suggested that
the plan to deploy as many as 10,000 peacekeeping troops (the
bulk of whom would be Ethiopian) into Somalia to support the
relocation of the Somalia transitional government to
Mogadishu triggered these fears. According to the Manahl,
the one thing that Somalis are unified about is "hatred of
Ethiopians." EU analysts fear that the deployment of
Ethiopian forces will destabilize the situation and provoke
violence.


5. (C/NF) During a separate office call on February 14 with
Director for Defense Aspects of ESDP, Claude-France Arnould,
Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Africa Theresa
Whelan discussed the situation in Somalia with EU staff
experts. EU planner Matthew Reece, who had just returned
that morning from Nairobi, warned that we must remain
cognizant of AU sensitivities regarding outside assistance,
but said they are making "wildcat plans". Reece said that
although there is up to 6 million Euros available from the
EU, IGAD has no staff and no structure to carry out the
mission that they are contemplating. More specifically, he
cited the physical lack of a plan for a Somalia operation and
the lack of any political-military synchronization. In his
view, the IGAD fact-finding mission was sent off with no hope
of success. He also predicted that IGAD would come to the EU
for more money, even though they have no plan to provide
resources to those who will carry out any proposed mission.
Noting an AU desire to re-establish its primacy over IGAD, he
suggested that the way ahead was to deal with IGAD by showing
that the AU was more capable of taking effective action.
Reece urged that we continue to work the issue via the AU.

Schnabel
.